StormyClearweather

This is a safe space. You don't have to lie to us. I know that's hard for you, though.

I know little, but the surface depiction looks Euro-esque to me. That can't be bad, right?

The LWX disco, or at least the portion most of us care about: THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM THAT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR A NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, MANY PIECES OF THE PUZZLE ARE THERE IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (I.E. DECAYING GREENLAND BLOCK, DOWNSTREAM 50/50 LOW, DECAYING WEST-EAST BASED -NAO, FAVORABLE RIDGE OVER IDAHO). NOW WHAT HAPPENS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING IF THIS IS A SNOW EVENT WE TALK ABOUT FOR YEARS TO COME OR A FEW FLURRIES. MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT, WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE TIME WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Hopefully we're stabilizing.

Or in PV's case, a lovely pink + salmon. #salmonstorm

Can we talk about how fun it would be waking up to this?

Pretty good forecast verification from NWS for most of us. I had my doubts this time yesterday.

12/20: Snow shower - trace 12/24: Mulch topper 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.3” 1/11: 1.8” 1/14: Trace - late evening snow shower 1/16: .5" 1/19: 1.9" 2/8: .1” 2/11-12: 5.0” Total: 16.9”

IAD: 4.2" at 9:30

Just a touch over 3" in Potomac Falls

Note I said the previous two winters. Not this winter.

This. We're almost certain to see some snow falling and accumulating tomorrow, for the most part. That's more than most of us could say (outside of a single week in Jan. 2024) over the previous two winters.

For what it's worth... *edit correcting HRRR to 2Z

RGEM and ICON both look a touch wetter for most to me. Probably noise, but it's good noise, so we take.

FV3

Would you mind posting the 10:1 as well? Just want to see how they compare.

Latest from LWX.

12/20: Snow shower - trace 12/24: Mulch topper 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.3” 1/11: 1.8” 1/14: Trace - late evening snow shower 1/16: .5" 1/19: 1.9" 2/8: .1” Total: 11.9” *edit for typo on date

So do you think the second wave would be a "hit" per the NAM? Or is this the path to failure @psuhoffman mentioned yesterday?

Well NAM is awful. Thankfully, it's the NAM.

Yeah HRRR is DRRRY. I don't take it too seriously either way, but it did seem to do well for the Thursday event re: QPF (for MBY and for Baltimore, where I was at the time, anyway).

So am I crazy, or was the GFS the first to nail this one starting several days ago? I mean, I guess it hasn't technically nailed anything since it could still be a nothing burger, but our little GooFuS is never consistent, except when it's consistently wrong. I admit I haven't followed this "event" too closely, so maybe I'm wrong.

It's okay, I love your old weenie.