NeonPeon

Wow, talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth. With the crap we've had this winter. I'd take this GFS run in a heart beat, and it could occur any hour god sends.

13 miles south .4" on the ground here, the radar doesn't lie. Nor did I expect any different. And it still might be the best overall event of the season so far.

Lovely fluff falling. Peaceful winter scene. I think this initial bit will be the best of it imby and it was forecast well on some models.

I'd be happy with 2 inches of snow at this point, rather than an inch of slush, or an inch that fell on a spreadsheet while I slept, then woke to rain. Once again, there's some minor discrepancies that will probably end up with some ending up feeling screwed out of a couple promised inches. If I had to guess on who'd be screwed, it'd be the south coast, vs the pike, of course, but its all minutia. It's a clipper. And it's my best hope so far. What a winter.

This might be the closest I get to a blizzard this year. Squall pumping through, really coming down, and plenty of sunlight on the outskirts to illuminate the whole thing. Epic dusting.

This is easily the worst winter season Newport, RI has ever had, thus far, but the mighty 3 inches in November combined with a few half inches of slop here and there since means that we're already JUST exceeding the 5" record in 97-98 for yearly snowfall. All the snow we've had feels like nothing though. A random alberta clipper on any other season, dropping 2 inches that is gone the next morning, would be preferable to all the snow this season. If they could measure ugliness, this winter would be the clear winner so far.

Nope, that honor would go to the absolute thumping of 2 inches I received in November. PTSD when I even think about it.

Woke up to less than an inch, grass showing through and rain. This winter has been an abusive relationship. Playable snow remains in the isle of sodor. I expected 1-2, half the nws forecast, and got less than that. Another atrocious event down here.

All the guidance has trended worse for the coast, as we've zeroed in on the event. Now expecting more like 1-2 inches, and more significantly for my purposes, to wake up to a snowy look, but with a cold rain/sleet. Not so much fun for the kid to play in. Hope I'm wrong!

Calmbogenesis? Largobogenesis?

You seem to think I'm worried, or bothered, or stressed. I'm not. I'm thoroughly enjoying having something to pay attention to. I'm just realistic, and live on an island in a bay, and looked at the soundings on various guidance, and a lot of them point to sleet for a time. That could easily lop an inch or two off, and that's that's what output shows. The models seem pretty set on an event that's pretty mediocre, outside of the context of this winter. Wouldn't be shocked to see some people outside of the WSW area get a nice band and overperform, but I also wouldn't want to bet on where. I wouldn't be gobsmacked if I got 3 inches or even less, honestly. I wouldn't be shocked if someone in the WSW area got 7 inches either. I don't see some huge swath of NE getting 6 inches though, but what the hell do I know. I don't really care as long as my kid can mound some snow. I think its going to be a fun morning tomorrow for him.

Can't argue much with the nws forecast. I'll take my advisory and head to the cliff walk where ill magically hold the sleet off like a poor man's gandalf, in a poor man's caradhras pass, against a poor man's storm.

The 3k NAM has been one of the more consistent pieces, less generous to near the pike and north. It also continues the theme of this being a 3-5 inch deal in the goods, with the odd lolly. The overall output of the NAM just looks odd though. I can buy it flipping near the coast, unfortunately, but I don't buy such a nice even producer, off such an ugly, weak piece of energy. It's just nice to have something to track. It'd be nicer if there was a higher ceiling on this event, but beggars can't be choosers, and whether it's 2-3 inches with some slop down here, or 4 or 5 inches, I've finally got a realistic opportunity to show the kid what snow actually is, and watch him flip out.

Of this being something resembling organized or marginally potent for anyone who isn't a mermaid. In other words I think we've seen an upward bound already for a weak system .

Oz gfs ends that trend.

Mix, obviously. As on the nam. Which would have me with 2 with a low warning level event in every direction, and the cape in the slop too. Not exactly an unfamiliar position. I tend to think there's a limit on this thing though, and it's one or those mediocre events we do ok in. In tbe circumstances this winter, that feels like a win to me.

Nam says I get zero, GFS says I get 4. The difference between those for someone starved of winter is massive. I'm hoping the forecast of 2 inches is right, but I wouldn't be surprised if the thump was limp and I quickly got flipped off.

If I just have a vaguely wintery look tomorrow at a time when my kid is awake, it will blow his mind. The best I've shown him is a dusting.

I like it, but I don't believe it.

Lawn grasses didn't survive for millions of years without human invention. They were created by humans to serve a particular, questionable, decorative purpose, and require a significant amount of intervention as we all know. The varietals of native grasses that have survived without human invention, most people would find repugnant in their lawn. They would be better in almost all respects though, for the environment, for wildlife. They just wouldn't match a certain conformist standard that has set in across wide parts of western suburbia. The idea that leaves are going to kill a lawn though, isn't crazy... they absolutely can smother a lawn if deep enough and hard frozen enough, that's how fragile and stupid a well-knit lawn is. They are great over beds though, or in the worst case just run over them with a lawnmower and mulch them in situ. Ideally, chuck them in your compost, and watch them be gone in a week. Stupidest thing you could do is put them in a bag, send them to a landfill, where they will compost them, sell them, and then you have to buy fertilizer for your lawn anyway. Lawn talk spells a dead threat, as does the fact that even with my confirmation bias I can only get like 1 model run in 20 to support my hope for snow. I'll keep watching though, if I can't watch actual snow, I may as well watch models. It's not much longer to go anyway, before there's little to no chance here due to climo alone. Another 30 days. When you can write off the best 10 of them, it doesn't bode well. All the while I show my toddler the crocuses coming up, and point to pictures of snow in books.

Just saw a huge limb snap in the cemetery opposite my home office. I like to gaze at the headstones while I'm working. Those lucky bastards.

It's a bad situation for the elderly. And, with all the summer homes, absentee pipes are bursting. It's a good thing that it's getting milder quite fast. The way this winter is going it's looking more and more likely that the only snow day my wife gets from her professorial duties involves zero snow on the ground, and about 3" to date, thanks to gas.

Your wife hasn't figured out how to ride through some boring ramble with dead eyes and a metronomic nod? How has she survived?

Newport is in a state of emergency due to a gas main freezing. Schools closed etc. They have a small army down here turning it on bit by bit. Luckily my natural gas conversion is in the spring.

Held my toddler on the porch. He gazed up at the street lights and saw the glittering snowflakes coming down. This is snow I said to him. He looked in wonderment and said "snow." He started pointing everywhere and said "snow, snow, SNOW!" When he wakes up tomorrow, he will demand "snow" for he is a little cocktail weenie. I will have to be honest with him. Your mum and dad chose to live in a subtropical island known as Aquidneck. It knows not of winter this year. That's my observation: a dusting and disillusionment. Not that I had hope for this one, the last one, the next one. Nothing has even been close enough to get sucked in this year. I hope the sleet line stays south of you all.