NeonPeon

The upstream low was closer and weaker than previous runs so it was more lobular and not totally discrete. I still think that whole look would be a bit of a nowcast.

GFS a complete whiff.

Those two bands are two middle fingers pointed squarely at the eastern seaboard.

Two whiffs for the price of one.

I'm still going to watch this, even though I think it's more likely it keeps trending worse at this point. What else am I going to do, face the finality of death?

Wasn't just meh, it's really odd. It suggests near concurrent bombogensis for two competing lows as part of the same energy It then resolves the two into one lobular thing.

Mostly we've seen cape scrapers and they are still mostly cape scrapers. Anyone in extreme SE New England is still very happy. Anyone else is still going to have a watching brief till we get to give up time. Id take many of the current models. I missed this last one and after the last winters with single digit snowfalls, I'm not going to turn my nose up at the prospect of a snow day. Also, all the evolutions still look a little odd and like there's more to be resolved. Could be the resolution is that it's even further offshore, who knows.

You forgot rule four: If I'm in an area less likely to be affected, there is no storm for anyone.

GFS looked nice but I didn't really understand the lobe-y look. I get it being elongated for moisture but I'd expect it to be better organized given how bombed out it is. This would be very have/has not as depicted. It's still so far away. I'll always prefer to dance with the fishes than with ptype. High ceiling still, and yes, it could still just escape.

In which we learn beggars can be choosers.

Hope everyone gets buried. It's killing me I'm not home. Enjoy it, get outside. Get off the screen.

I see the same uncertainty the normal liminal spaces, the floor is just higher. The thing is there's a massive sensible and aesthetic differences between having a snowstorm then rain then some more on top, than having a nice pack. That's how you get that horrible false last stair feeling as a kid as you fall through that layer of hardened ice. Beggars can't be choosers and all that, but I'm sadly sitting this one out, so it's not even that. Oh, and many millions of people live in one of the liminal spaces. More than the entire "we know what we are getting" area combined.

Well, that and the normal mixing spots, on the south coast, the bays, around NYC, the cape.

Cancelled school in Newport already for Monday. Hope this one doesn't disappoint for anyone, even if it would make me missing it more palatable.

I'm missing this one in England. Guaranteed to be snow. Enjoy.

Oh, don't I know it, though it's pretty explicable. I've finally given up, I just go to the Adirondacks a couple times a winter now.

It's been snowing for most of the last 12 hours. We're up to just about 1 inch of slop.

Lovely little brief band. Big cat paws had the kids tongues out.

It's a good thing this thing just simply doesn't have much time to work with. The rate at which it recovered intensity is impressive.

Japan, Portugal, Poland, Croatia... the list goes on and on. Plenty of places have declining population. Even American holdings like Puerto Rico.

The track certainly could have been worse, if the intensity actually could not have been any worse. The other thing jamaica escaped was the stall and turn to the north occurring close enough to cause a longer duration heavy rain event. For a time 40+ inches were on the table in the east.

A little worse for wear too after she ran through Jamaica?

Straight line winds.

Right, but it was unremarkably strong at landfall.

It looks rather like the eye is oscillating within the storm. The bulk of the storm is still making eastward progress.