NeonPeon

Can we please keep the politics out of the snow, now it's all brown and gross.

I don't know it looks ugly, need to close off the eastern eye wall and deal with the dry air entrainment.

Their justification is as below, and makes sense: 12z GFS remains the strong outlier when compared to other models and brings coastal storm right over 40/70 benchmark,which if it verifies, would bring widespread heavy snow and strong winds to much of SNE. We`re also still seeing a very large spread in GFS ensemble members and Canadian/ECMWF ensembles as well, so forecast confidence in any particular solution is not very high. GFS solution is not completely supported by other guidance but we have noted more of a NW trend; consensus is for a weaker downstream ridge which results in a slightly farther offshore pass but still brings heavy snow and strong winds to Cape Cod and the Islands and South Coast. This would also bring accumulating snow to much of SNE, but not the extreme amounts as seen on some model snow maps that have been making the rounds these past few days. Since we are most confident on 6"+ totals on Cape Cod and the South Coast, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for these areas. We considered also including more of RI and SE MA given recent trend but decided to hold off for now given spread in ensemble members. Keep in mind if we see continue to see a NW trend in guidance, the Watch will likewise need to be expanded to include more of SNE, at least into more or RI and eastern MA including Providence and Boston. We`re just not quite ready to buy into that just yet.

The snow was very impressive in that first thump as I drove across the border into NY on I90. Big cats paws in any bit of elevation.

It does get exhausting, the thousands of international tourists coming and every one of them asking one thing: how do I get to the middle of nowhere in northern Connecticut, I've heard so much about it.

Surely the fact that we are all a bunch of hysterical loons isn't part of any good policy analysis. More information is more information. We might not be able to resist the allure of overreaction, but surely a professional just waits and looks at a few runs, and the information is more current, and the effect is the same. I mean, I've seen people on here saying why hasn't box done x y or z, when their information doesn't match, and they are clearly just waiting for more info to confirm, rather than oversteering.

Cheers, yes, that's basically the plan.

Any advice on how dumb it is to drive from RI to upstate NY tomorrow leaving first thing in the Am... i90 and i87 for 95% of it. The ZR threat seems later in the day for the most part, am I reading this right. I think I´ll have some moderate snow later in the drive but not crazy?

The depiction from GFS has been pretty steadfast across quite a lot of runs.

ICON looked about the same or a little worse to me, and still nothing.

Elliot page?

No, I mean there's a need for a narrative, because people want big solutions, and then you have a counter narrative in every storm, "it's gone." Every model in this context is evidence of an outcome that isn't just some middling thing, it's all heading to something else. I know the solution tends to more accuracy as we have better information and more time, but it could head to where it is, some brush of an event, or anything else within a reasonable envelope.

Why does it have to be headed anywhere?

I was going to drive out to upstate New York Friday am, I'm starting to think I might not want to deal with mohawk/Hudson valley zr as modelled. It's almost all 90 and 87, but the end is Mennonites and untreated roads. It's not a necessary trip. Any thoughts?

You're right. Just checked my photos and it's tree after tree after tree on power lines morning of Feb 9 2013.

That´s the most amount of downed trees I´ve seen with a winter storm. Everything was absolutely caked.

Power outage here. Must be the driving, uh, drizzle and the 3mph wind.

If we are predicting predictions now, I would like to predict predictions of predictions. I'm going to stick my neck on the line and say there will be, regardless of verification of prediction of prediction, a strong signal of interest from Southeastern posters in making predictions of predictions, while others in the interior post it's over, you're still tracking this thing, etc.

First real snow eating fog. Starting to feel like it's drawing to a close if this period doesn't result in much. Snow in March is fairly unusual here. There's two months of any sort of dependable chances.

I don't understand why you complain about this year on the basis of getting slightly less snow than your neighbors, but wouldn't think this year has compared favorably to the last several in looking, feeling, and acting like a winter. It's the logic I try to work on with my children. You can't only enjoy something in the context of getting more than your sibling, you have to enjoy a good as a good in itself. It's still more odd because you rely upon statistics as evidence of how screwed you are. Yes, your climo means you should do better on average. That's why you do do better on average! That doesn't mean an injustice has occured when you don't, or anything statistically remarkable has occured. There are greatest ever storm accumulation maps people post, full of fond memories, that just to look at them makes me relive trauma. None of them have been me getting 3 inches when someone else gets 6 nearby. That is virtually every single snow event. They've been me getting rain, when most of the rest of New England get 1-2 feet. That's why my climo is what it is. If you've been through hell for 10 years as a lover of snow, I'm not sure what my life has been. There has been almost a month of continuous snowpack. I've used this to cross country ski for weeks on end, even though I wasn't here for the storm. My kids got to sled, and sled, and sled. Has it been meteorologically incredible given all the cold? Not statistically, no. And no real stormy storms. But why are you aggrieved at some folks around ri getting a few inches more snow than you ytd, but not concomitantly relieved that it hasn't been a non-existent winter like we've had recently. I haven't cracked double digits seasonal snowfall in recent winters! This winter do far is remarkable for one thing - continuous snowpack. It's almost dead. I have enjoyed it immensely for one. I'm not sure what purpose it serves not to.

I'm going to write a strongly worded letter to those responsible.

The sublime expectation of happiness that is happiness itself. Just kidding, it's got to verify.

This is why it's nice to be in this horrible location for snow. Will I get no snow, or no snow? I'm going with... Well, actually, I'm driving up to the Adirondacks again. Good luck.

Id take day after day after day of tundra rather than 95/75. I leave Newport in the heat of the summer for milder weather in northern Spain, and Newport is about as mild as it gets.

Yeah. This is going to be mood snow. Definitely more of interest in sw and long Island but there's a very very low ceiling here.