NeonPeon

At an inch now of snow cone textured sleet and snow. It's really coming down, there's still the odd piece of crispy sleet here and there. The best snow, and likely best snow event of the year. Glad I wasn't expecting much - I'm enjoying a snowy morning.

barely...Quarter inch eyeballing it but I can't go outside to measure without waking my kid up. I'm right on the line, I can see and moreso hear it flipping then going quiet and back again.

Sleet and snow, glad it's not raining, surfaces covered. I'm going to enjoy this for what it is.

GFS has been shunting east for 4 runs. My sense of getting 3-4 might actually be optimistic.

For sure. They helped me not get too carried away, anyway.

What is underperforming at this point? Isn't the consensus for an advisory save a tiny slice of eastern mass? Just because we're all hoping it overperforms that, and we got a little taste of it on the models yesterday, just because this winter has been awful, doesn't mean our expectations shouldn't at least acknowledge that?

I'm talking about the general depiction of a storm, i.e. something more consolidated earlier, and not something primarily developing as it heads out to sea, that is a significant event primarily for extreme eastern portions of SNE. Nam has been in the latter camp for about 48 hours, while the Euro/GFS decided to take us on a fun rollercoaster ride over that time that ends up in much the same place. Obviously it doesn't much matter now, and we'll see what happens, but I do not understand, at all, how one could see the GFS, in particular as "Steadfast" for this event. By the way, my untrained eyes looking at the water vapor today gave me a headache. I don't blame any of this computing for coughing up a weird bit or two, considering the complexity of the various little pieces of energy in place. If someone can see through the matrix on that, bravo.

Isn't the Euro/GFS basically like 90% of the way to what the NAM has been saying for the last 72 hrs (with minor wobbles). If anyone has been making a slow steady progression, surely broadly speaking its the globals?

That's clearly a hedgehog. I don't even know what some of you are looking at.

So the gfs has almost entirely caved to the nam at this point. Good on box for entirely ignoring it.

Where do you see that? I see advisories still statewide.

The NAM looks better to my eye, if you ignore the QPF, which went from bizarrely smoothed out at 12 z, to just odd, at 18z.

So there are a lots of models that will tell you very good news. Model hugging and a consensus says we get 6-9 inches, but there are a bunch of things that could prevent that from happening. A less wound up storm could give us some hours of poor snow and even rain, with the best banding just north of here, and then when the storm gets organized, the comma head remains to our east, and we are dry/scraps. I can totally see that scenario occurring, and us getting a scrappy 4 inches with some slop in the middle of it. We would have done better with something more organized (who wouldn't). The NAM is the worst reading of any model for newport (2-3 inches?). It can't be totally discounted. My prediction - pain, but that holds no claim on being scientific. BOX have been totally right in slow playing this, though.

This one would really hurt if I wasn't already dead inside.

Confirmation bias.

The NAM has been reasonably accurate in the last two garbage systems, and seems entirely plausible. I wish I could feel comfortable ignoring it, because its says I am on the outside looking in. Box's conservative approach seems to have been quite reasonable. I'm sure more adjustments will come, but it won't be oversteer. What a headache if the GFS/Euro are obstinate.

The NAMs solution brings rain into play as well. The low takes longer to develop and I can totally buy there being south coast rain/taint with patchier weaker precip and a less wound low.

Just be happy it's a valid question. It's been a lean few months. I'm very interested to see the next forecast discussion from box.

It looks better organized to me, and not that different in terms of QPF. If anything it's better, surely?

I don't want to be up late editing to pay for a boiler. I don't want a lot of things. The entirety of this winter would fall into that category. Look into the depths of your weenie heart, you know the depths of unjust evil that this rain represents is only too plausible. I know it is too, but you're in an even more precarious situation. I hope we both stay rain free, but its always been a risk.

This GFS would cause the elbow of the cape to self-harm. It's too close to comfort for me too, would expect a flip to rain.

We don't exactly have a consensus yet, to feel totally hoodwinked, but we're getting better. There is one absolute consensus - the overwhelming thirst.

Going out on a massive limb with that one. It'll trend north obviously, and I'll rain.

I am shooting for double digits.

.6" Hoping something sinks down here, or we get something on the way out to impress the kid in the morning. At least there's no rain in there. Some decent bands in N RI