snowman19

It would be truly unprecedented and very hard to believe for us to see a La Niña pattern and no response from a super El Niño this winter. If the Euro is correct and there’s a trimonthly +2.2C ONI for NDJ, I would bet my year’s salary that there is a very strong atmospheric response. I would be completely shocked if there’s not. All the seasonal models so far show an absolutely raging STJ on roids, not La Niña like in the least

The CFS has been laughably horrible. It’s been trying to cool region 1+2 down to +1.0C literally for the last 6 months.

If the Euro is correct, this will be one of the strongest super El Niños in recorded history and December actually hits +2.5C, and yes, January at +2.3C, but either way…wow if the Euro is correct. @so_whats_happeningAs I said “one of the strongest”, not THE strongest, I’m well aware of the 15-16 ONI peak

The new Euro has one of the strongest El Niños in history. Not only that, it has a later peak…gets region 3.4 up to +2.5C in January. Over 85% of the members on the new run show a super trimonthly ONI El Niño now. See Ben Noll’s new tweet:

They show validation of what? It’s 9/7, you mused about winter. What the models show right now doesn’t mean anything for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. Winter thoughts will be validated or not validated at the end of March. They could very well completely flip come November’s runs. My point is that what the models show now, is initialized off the current antecedent forcing conditions and they are keeping it there. And @Brooklynwx99, an overpowering STJ from a super El Niño is going to crash through +PNA and bring in PAC air, we saw this in 15-16 minus a 2 week anomalous period in early-mid January that winter was a PAC air torch a rama

The models actually did a decent job with the drop in 1+2, they showed this a month ago. They level it off to just below +3.0C and keep it there through January. They maintain region 3 at super status through January as well. As far as region 3.4, I think the big warming there holds off until later this month. The models agree that region goes super. And we still have 2 1/2 months of OHC warming since that normally doesn’t peak until November. The CRW has 3.4 a little warmer than the OISST today, maintaining it at +1.6C like the UKMO https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

Again, wait until November and see where we are at. These seasonal models are initializing with the current forcing and just assuming it doesn’t move and keeping it there….very unlikely. See Griteater’s post about the Nino base state shown on that run being east of 15-16, yet it’s showing 14-15 forcing? It’s showing forcing west of even 15-16. I think not. Also, it’s showing a super El Niño, peaking in December, with an absolutely raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast, what do you think that is going to do to any +PNA that pops up? It’s going to crash into it and knock it right back down. You aren’t going to be able to sustain +PNA. And an Aleutian low in a weak Nino/-EPO position? Color me skeptical. As far as the NAO/AO…that’s possible, but the PAC side is very suspect IMO. Let’s revisit this in November when the Nino gets more established and the seasonal wavelength changes and feedbacks kick in

The BOM is obviously more conservative than the CPC lol However, they do show the forecasted healthy +IOD and also show the Nino peaking at a trimonthly ONI average of +2.2C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

The -SOI is responding, a clear atmospheric response to the strengthening Nino Walker circulation and good coupling. It’s also completely drowning out and suppressing the IO and Maritime Continent low frequency MJO forcing as you can read in that CPC discussion. The Nino forcing has overtaken. Make no mistake about it, it’s game time for this Nino

[mention=564]bluewave[/mention] [mention=2064]griteater[/mention] [mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention] It’s funny you guys mention this. The latest update from the CPC…El Nino forcing has taken over. The low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent getting suppressed and squashed out from the Nino signal, the rapidly strengthening +IOD, (causing subsidence there) also contributing to this. You can say goodbye to the Niña like MJO forcing. It’s the El Niño show from here on out. Here is the disco: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1698988453873246281?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The end of the month into October strengthening period looks good IMO, I believe the MJO push into phases 7, 8 happens, then I think we probably get one more in November and that’s it. The SOI is responding with a run of significant negative values now, showing that this Nino is coupling well. I’m still confident in a region 3.4 trimonthly (NDJ) super peak. It also looks like the region 1+2 cooling has leveled off to just below +3.0C. The models did a good job so far showing this and they keep it at the current level through January. That region most likely has peaked, region 3 is still warming, already at super status. SOI: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1699431578659614884?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Before you decide to spike the ball and act like a dick, I’d wait to see the final result. But I guess you have it figured out already like you did last winter with the epic pattern. It could very well be a super El Niño when you average out the 3 consecutive months @brooklynwx99 Here you go…new Euro plumes….still shows a super El Niño: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699126469518074024?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

It looks like the new Euro does get it above +2.0C for a month or two, it’s not showing 3 consecutive months above +2 anymore

I could absolutely see this month ending at +1.9C on the weeklies, completely believable

The models actually showed this region 1+2 drop. They get it down just below +3.0C and keep it there through January, so it’s not really surprising. Also, none of the models show an October peak, they all peak it between November/December

@Gawx The CPC weekly update has 3.4 up to +1.6C and it’s only 9/5….maybe the models showing September getting up to +1.9C aren’t so crazy… https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699078869762888163?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Not surprised. At this point, I think a +2 or higher OHC come November is becoming very, very likely given what is projected to occur later on this month

@Gawx New record for this Nino event in the daily region 3.4 value….up to over +1.6C on both OISST and CRW https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

If you want an end to the La Niña like forcing and get a cooling WPAC this is the way to do it (possible super El Niño and healthy +IOD for several months, -SOI, MJO waves propagating into the Pacific). All the models show this Nino feeding back and coupling very well atmospherically, evidenced by the raging STJ being shown on the seasonal models. The models also show that the Nino isn’t going to be in a hurry to decay once it peaks around December. They don’t show the IOD going back to neutral until January. The forcing response may take a bit, assuming the OLR plots are correct, which they probably are, and this MJO advances into the PAC, a big warming in the ENSO regions and OHC should come late this month into October with the wave stomping out the trade winds and causing a WWB/DWKW behind it. It’s going to be interesting to say the least

The OLR plots are showing the MJO moving into the PAC (phases 7 and 8) after 9/20. If correct, it’s going to trigger a WWB/DWKW and that is when we should see a substantial warming. Also expecting the OHC to continue rising through November, as is climo for that https://x.com/piw44/status/1698737106275955143?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I’m wondering if the strengthening +IOD (rapid warming of the western Indian Ocean, rapid cooling around Indonesia along with what should be associated subsidence in that region will finally shift the forcing east. We already saw some eastward migration of the forcing in August. This should lead to more -SOI and a boost to the El Niño warming. It’s going to be a very interesting 3 months coming up

I stand corrected then, I thought 72-73 was an east-based event to start

AGW is obviously a huge concern and temps need to be adjusted for that. I very seriously an early El Nino peak, all the models have a peak around November/December, then a very slow weakening through March. That, along with the healthy +IOD (shown to erode to neutral in January), leads me to believe we see subsidence over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. As far as ENSO orientation, I see it remaining east-lean through the winter…the models all show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January, which again makes me doubt west of the dateline La Niña like forcing. And @roardogeast-based El Niño doesn’t always mean complete blowtorch December, i.e. December, 1972. December, 1997 wasn’t a complete torch, warmer than normal, yes, the real blowtorch started in early January and carried through February and into the 1st half of March, 1998

Strong -PDO and I believe it was also -PMM (not 100% sure though), was also east-based super El Niño