snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I think they are being generous even saying 3 inches for this. 3 inches is the absolute ceiling for this in our area and if it does happen, I think it’s closer to central NJ. Definitely not widespread here. All of the good lifting and surface convergence is south of us with the inverted trough and the good upper dynamics/diffluence with the jet streak and upper low is also south of here. I believe we are going to have bigger dry air and subsidence issues than people are thinking right now, especially given we are north of the IVT, that is going to probably eat up a decent amount of QPF and it may be a virga fest for awhile at the start
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The inverted trough is going to set up south of the area. It’s going to be hard to get enough strong forcing north of that to get more than 1-2 inches here. The best dynamics from the upper low and jet streak look to be south of the metro area, also, the 1005mb surface low way off shore isn’t exactly awe inspiring. And we’re also going to have dry air and subsidence issues to overcome the further north you get from the inverted trough. If the upper trough wasn’t so positively tilted, this probably would have been a major coastal snowstorm
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The NAM is an obvious, clear outlier as always. Total trash model. Anyway, this is a 1-2 inch snow event for the area iMO. I don’t think the 3 inch amounts happen until you get into central NJ on south. On the bright side, at least it’s going to snow
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I’m starting to think my idea of a good February is about to possibly go into the shitter. Like you said, assuming no -AO/-NAO, we are at the mercy of unfavorable MJO forcing traversing phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool, -PDO and a possible GOA/AK vortex (+EPO/+WPO) with PAC jet extensions from the strong +ENSO. +PNA does little good along with a +EPO
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If Simon Lee is correct about the NAO and AO going predominantly positive into February, you better pray for sustained -EPO (a real tough proposition with a strong Nino) or it’s definitely game over, even with a +PNA. +EPO = the PAC floodgates into Canada and the CONUS will be wide open with no arctic or Atlantic blocking over the top
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The new op Euro and EPS are unimpressed
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Sloatsburg….Got around 2 inches of snow and it changed to sleet, graupel and freezing rain even up here. That warm nose was no joke. The Sunday run of the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were actually extremely accurate with snowfall totals
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If Simon Lee is correct about the NAM/AO and NAO we would definitely need a cooperative PAC (PNA, EPO, WPO) and hope the western ridge isn’t too far west or we would get cutter and inland runner happy. It’s obvious at this point the PDO isn’t going to cooperate….question is ENSO….how long do you sustain a -EPO with an El Niño this strong?
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The ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) are showing another 2-3 inch event Fri/Sat right now. If that’s what actually happens, I don’t think there will be any complaints. We’d be talking possibly 6 inches all together in less than one week in NYC. It’s been years….
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Very good agreement now (all 3 ensemble suites, EURO, GFS, UKMET, NWS blend of models, FV3, ICON, SREF, RGEM). We’ll say around 2.5 inches of snow as a mean from all of them. The 18z NAM is the clear outlier, but what else is new with that dreadful model. Assuming the CMC drops some at 0z from 12z to match the others if the new RGEM is any clue
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Root for the op EURO/EPS if you want all snow in the NYC metro area. The CMC/NAM/RGEM/ICON/UKMET have midlevel warm nose issues. IMO the EURO suite is going to be the most correct…1-2.5 inches, which would be a nice event considering where we are coming from. I think the GFS adjusts slightly west towards the EURO solution. I think the other models are too amped
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Lack of snow/ice cover, bare ground, wide open Great Lakes is going to modify the cold coming in from the west a lot
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The ICON, RGEM and CMC are all too amped up IMO. The UKMET is a clear outlier. The NAM is total trash, not even worth looking it, it’s already trending towards the EURO/EPS. Nothing has changed in my view, still a 1-2 inch event area wide. The GFS probably comes a bit further west like the EURO the next 2 runs
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After last winter and so far this winter in the NYC metro area……Take the 1-2 inches and run
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IMO nothing supported an amped up coastal hugging/inland running solution for 1/16. Same for 1/20….the risk with that is suppressed and OTS too. The TPV is going to act as a kicker
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You were right about the -PDO and WPAC warm pool months ago. Pretty unbelievable that the west coast is in the freezer during a super El Niño. 72-73 actually turned out to be a much better analog than a lot of people were saying it was going to be
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If I had to guess right now, I’d say a general 1-2 inches total for the area Tues-Wed
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@so_whats_happening Looks like we are seeing the final warming of this event….it probably starts decaying in about a week or so from now
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The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold, it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us. IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….
