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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    Those snow maps are pure satire. NWS Upton is not biting and for good reason: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper levels signal a strong jet tapping into multiple sources of moisture from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic Monday into Monday night. Vertical lift apparent from a coupled jet structure depicted with local area close to right rear quad of jet streak to the NE of the area plus left front quad of an approaching jet streak to the SW going into early Tuesday. Mid levels convey a strong shortwave moving across the local region early Tuesday. ECMWF strongest and deepest compared to GFS and Canadian models. Shortwave moves well east of the region Tuesday night. Less amplified mid level shortwaves move across Wednesday and Thursday. Without much in the way of phasing of northern and southern branches of the upper jet with the southerly branch being the more dominant one, there is a limit to how amplified the wave gets. There is not much tilt vertically. This favors a relatively faster and more progressive solution. Also evident, is a lack of a strong high pressure area to lock in colder air. It will difficult to sustain any prolonged snowfall especially if more of the precipitation falls during the day. At the surface, low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic Monday night and then deepens as it tracks southeast of Long Island. ECMWF much deeper and slower compared to other models. The current forecast takes this low southeast of Long Island going into Monday night with an increase of precipitation. Similar to previous forecast, inland zones have relatively more snow in the forecast compared to the coast. Coastal areas contain mostly rain. Lesser chances of rain and snow accompany the smaller shortwaves Wednesday and Thursday with otherwise mainly dry conditions Tuesday night onward through rest of long term. Daytime temperatures will be higher than normal, well into the 40s on Monday but will decline closer to normal values for the rest of the work week. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off @MJO812 How’s the 12z ICON in Kuchera ratios looking?
  2. snowman19
    New Disco from Upton: “LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * Models continue to see significant north-south shifts and changes in the timing of low pressure that is expected to impact the area Monday into Tuesday. Low track has shifted to the south the last 24h. Chance rain and/or snow. * Temperatures will trend down to normal levels by mid week. Models and their ensembles continue to lack continuity with the track and timing of a souther branch storm system that is expected to impact the area later Monday into Tuesday. Like we saw 24h ago, the ensembles continue to closely follow their operational, indicating an under dispersed solution. The players feature north Pacific jet energy diving down the coast of western Canada today and into a split flow of the polar jet across the west. This pattern has been causing much volatility in the NWP. Now that this energy is onshore, the hope is the continuity will improve heading into the weekend. In addition, the splitting of the energy into the two stream and their interaction across the CONUS is another major factor contributing to the run-to-run changes. As is stands now, once again with all the uncertainty in the forecast, have stayed closed to the NBM outside of some small changes. High pressure will builds across the area Sunday and then gives way to low pressure moving out of the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. The 12Z GFS is the slowest of the guidance and lags its ensemble mean (GEFS), but there is a good cluster of members that are in line with this slower track. The Canadian (and GEPS) and ECMWF are about 12h faster. The low is expected to track off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday, passing south and east of the 40N...70W benchmark. That being the case, confidence is still not high on this track based on the lack of continuity. As for precipitation type, whatever gets in here Monday should be rain with the potential of a changeover on the backside of the system Monday night into Tuesday. The lack of a strong surface high to the north and ESE flow at the onset, will likely result in temperatures too warm for snow. There is more uncertainty of course for inland locations, being father removed from the maritime influence. Bottom line, it is way too early to be specific with details, but it is something to watch in coming days. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week with cold, dry conditions. Gusty NW winds will likely prevail on the backside of the system Wednesday into Thursday.“ https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
  3. snowman19
    Yes, it absolutely does and I fully expect the models to adjust as such again, the CMC/GEPS is closest to reality right now IMO. You are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment again. If I’m wrong then torch me, but I don’t think I will be
  4. snowman19
    10:1 ratio maps are junk, agreed. Nothing has changed IMO. This is still an I84 north event
  5. snowman19
    Mon-Tues is going to move north again
  6. snowman19
    Yes I do. Just like I think Mon-Tues is an awful snow pattern still for here
  7. snowman19
    I dunno just a guy with a Bachelor’s and Master’s in meteorology, who’s currently going for a Ph.D. in meteorology. You know…someone who really knows his stuff. Someone you might want to listen to. Just saying….
  8. snowman19
    Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern
  9. snowman19
    No. I don’t see a cold pattern lasting beyond early March
  10. snowman19
    There are individuals with northern stream interaction
  11. snowman19
    Yep. Barely gets precip into SE Virginia. Streams stay completely separate
  12. snowman19
    I think it’s probably suppressive until the last week of the month like Tomer Burg said. He gave very solid reasoning. It most likely happens as the -NAO block erodes and fizzles out
  13. snowman19
    I agree. If anything happens it’s going to be after 2/15. The setup for 2/13-2/14 sucks. Our risk after 2/15 will be suppression, not lakes cutter or inland runner anymore IMO. Just hope the -NAO block isn’t too strong
  14. snowman19
    This only further supports Tomer Burg’s suppression argument. It’s a case of “be careful what you wish for”. Overpowering -NAO block in combo with a very strong El Niño, which already strongly favors the Mid-Atlantic and SE with a roided up, raging southern stream/STJ @MJO812 You won’t need shorts and a tank top, you’re going to get half of what you want….it’s going to get cold. Snow? Not so sure. Might be too much of a good thing in this case (suppression). I would not be praying for a massive, overpowering -NAO block right now given the strong El Niño
  15. snowman19
    Funny. Earthlight praised his analysis
  16. snowman19
    That tweet chain I just posted went into depth about the suppression risk through late February. He doesn’t think the pattern gets favorable for snow here until the tail end of the month into the start of March either
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    Great disco:
  19. snowman19
    Sorry that I don’t wishcast cold and snow because that has worked out so well the last 3 winters .
  20. snowman19
    That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath
  21. snowman19
    I have and the stratosphere is still extremely difficult to predict. What are the actual effects on the SPV? Which side of the pole does it favor? What is the state of the PAC?
  22. snowman19
    2/1-2/15 is certain to average way above normal for the NYC metro area. It all depends on the 13 day period from 2/16-2/29 now….does it actually live up to all the snow and cold hype?
  23. snowman19
    Let’s call it a wash. The rounded trimonthly ONI is +2.0C for NDJ, unrounded is +1.97C (difference of 0.3). While the CPC is still going to list it as an official super El Niño, we’ll call it basically a wash in the contest
  24. snowman19
    I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward @Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip
  25. snowman19
    @bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C
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