snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If there was a -NAO block along with that -EPO I’d absolutely say there’s a good chance of coastal snowstorms going forward, even without a +PNA. I do not believe an anomalous 13-14 redux is coming
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Buckle up!
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Said it yesterday. There is no blocking. +NAO and +AO. The ridge axis is completely west of the west coast and the SE ridge/WAR is trying to flex. If a shortwave amps, it’s going to cut, there’s nothing (blocking; -NAO, 50/50 low) to force secondary coastal redevelopment. Yea, we can hope for a 13-14 redux with the -EPO, but that was an extremely anomalous pattern. Good luck getting an exact repeat of that 10 years later
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Just said it before in the Niña thread, but the 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge is completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature is showing up
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Definitely. Late bloomer (NDJ) and a Modoki/CP La Niña at that
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The 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature showing up
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We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1
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I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby
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@donsutherland1 @bluewave Strengthening SPV to very strong levels with tropospheric/TPV coupling is imminent. The AO and NAO very likely go strongly positive
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I’m absolutely convinced of RNA the end of this month/early February. MJO forcing will be moving into the IO with amplitude. Also, the SPV gains strength and coupling with the TPV looks imminent. That will result in a strong to very strong AO/NAO
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IMO Saturday morning is a dusting/coating to maybe an inch which would be the ceiling and not widespread, isolated areas. It’s looking like just a period of steady snow showers passing through
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Keep the current look we have now. Cold, suppressive and dry!! Lmfaoooooo @Allsnow In all seriousness I wholeheartedly believe we go RNA. Forcing is going into the IO. You can hold me to it
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Almost every model is not showing 2-4. Stop
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UKIE: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Yea, -EPO driven. Besides the RNA, also looks like a flip to -AAM and a strong SPV/+AO
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@Bluewave Not surprisingly the EPS is right back to showing a -PNA just after mid-month
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That old EURO bias isn’t a thing anymore. It hasn’t existed in years and it’s handling the northern stream completely different. That’s why it’s flat and OTS run after run @Wxoutlooksblog
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We’ll see but the tropical forcing progression after 1/18 supports -PNA
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Even for the op GFS this is insane run to run jumps. I’ve honestly never seen anything like it. Let’s see if that has GEFS support
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EPS and GEFS are identical now for the 1/20 period. The pattern shift begins just after mid-month
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@Bluewave
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@Gawx @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1
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It’s going as good as all your snowstorm fantasies
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I absolutely believe we see -PNA/RNA at the end of the month. The 2 questions are 1) how strong of a -PNA? (which you just said) and 2) is there going to be legit west-based -NAO blocking to somewhat tame the SE ridging?
