snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Low frequency forcing/MJO 5-6-7 still in the same familiar area (around Maritime Continent) as we go further into this month. The Niña background state remains
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@Gawx
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If anything, the -PMM has increased in strength…more support for a possible La Niña event this fall/winter:
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Yea, the tweeter is actually a retired certified meteorologist lol Crazy right?
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Agree. There are obviously exceptions to every rule but in general he’s correct. -ENSO/-PDO winters that don’t do well in November and December are *usually* abysmal
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Despite the great patterns for retaining arctic sea ice, here we sit with this:
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Skeptical hippo here that this is going to somehow magically turn into a very active Atlantic hurricane season with high ACE. I’m feeling confident sticking with my guess of below normal
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This strongly supports the development of a Niña:
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While I can definitely see periods of -EPO, I doubt we see the same persistence we saw last winter from the end of November through the beginning of March
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Already said it, but I agree with you on -PNA this winter….2nd year -ENSO….very strong tendency. As far as the NAO being “super” positive, I doubt it, but I could definitely see a predominant +NAO this winter, especially if this SST alignment continues through fall, other factors (solar, geomag, lack of a tripole in June) we already talked about argue for that too
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Yep, if you look back at the falls which preceded winters that featured very strong +NAO, that’s the SST alignment you will see. And if this continues into cold season, with the warm waters over by Iceland and Europe, and the cold south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, you can see exactly where the jet stream and very fast, zonal flow will be….right along that gradient of cold/warm waters
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@Stormchaserchuck1 This is probably the most +NAO SST alignment I’ve seen in a long time. The cold SSTs from around/south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has preceded winters that saw predominate strong to very +NAOs and very fast, zonal flow in the Atlantic
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I think we may actually approach a moderate La Niña on the RONI this coming fall/winter. I also believe there’s a good chance we see a weak La Niña on the ONI. A strong -PDO winter would not surprise me either
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I think 2 things are blatantly obvious at this point…1) We are going to have a -ENSO winter, very likely weak La Niña regardless of what the “official” ONI number says 2) We are going to have a solidly (very possibly strong) -PDO winter….
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This -PDO cycle has beat the 1940’s-1970’s severely negative cycle
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Enjoy this cooldown while we still can….looks like we are all geared up for the next round of heat/humidity by mid-August. Verbatim, this is easily 90’s and this signal has been showing up since the end of July
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[mention=564]Bluewave[/mention] Was your MJO fall indicator for winter September or October? So far, since spring the MJO waves have been very heavily favoring phases 5-6-7, but with nowhere near the record strength/amplitude we saw last year
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If we do indeed flip to a -AAM regime along with -PDO and -ENSO/Nina, the CANSIPS for fall (SON) makes no sense
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I’m expecting a -AAM dominant fall
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I thought it would descend quicker than this, it’s definitely descending from last year, just not very fast
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@Gawx This solar cycle is taking its sweet time to descend from the max….
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2013 had a completely different system in place than we do this year that was suppressing Atlantic tropical activity, but yes, I remember that season well. When we got to the end of July, people were saying it was going to ramp up in mid-late August, then it was going to ramp up in September, then there was going to be a late season burst in October, which also didn’t happen….before we knew it, it was November and tropical season ended
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This looks to continue well into August. I’m sticking with my previous idea that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up around, if not below 100 total ACE
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Meant to tell you the other day but very good job in calling for the continuation of the -PDO regime and doubting an El Niño. You were one of the very few voices calling for a possible continuation of the -PDO and a 2nd year La Niña
