snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Despite the great patterns for retaining arctic sea ice, here we sit with this:
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Skeptical hippo here that this is going to somehow magically turn into a very active Atlantic hurricane season with high ACE. I’m feeling confident sticking with my guess of below normal
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This strongly supports the development of a Niña:
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While I can definitely see periods of -EPO, I doubt we see the same persistence we saw last winter from the end of November through the beginning of March
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Already said it, but I agree with you on -PNA this winter….2nd year -ENSO….very strong tendency. As far as the NAO being “super” positive, I doubt it, but I could definitely see a predominant +NAO this winter, especially if this SST alignment continues through fall, other factors (solar, geomag, lack of a tripole in June) we already talked about argue for that too
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Yep, if you look back at the falls which preceded winters that featured very strong +NAO, that’s the SST alignment you will see. And if this continues into cold season, with the warm waters over by Iceland and Europe, and the cold south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, you can see exactly where the jet stream and very fast, zonal flow will be….right along that gradient of cold/warm waters
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@Stormchaserchuck1 This is probably the most +NAO SST alignment I’ve seen in a long time. The cold SSTs from around/south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has preceded winters that saw predominate strong to very +NAOs and very fast, zonal flow in the Atlantic
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I think we may actually approach a moderate La Niña on the RONI this coming fall/winter. I also believe there’s a good chance we see a weak La Niña on the ONI. A strong -PDO winter would not surprise me either
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I think 2 things are blatantly obvious at this point…1) We are going to have a -ENSO winter, very likely weak La Niña regardless of what the “official” ONI number says 2) We are going to have a solidly (very possibly strong) -PDO winter….
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This -PDO cycle has beat the 1940’s-1970’s severely negative cycle
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Enjoy this cooldown while we still can….looks like we are all geared up for the next round of heat/humidity by mid-August. Verbatim, this is easily 90’s and this signal has been showing up since the end of July
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[mention=564]Bluewave[/mention] Was your MJO fall indicator for winter September or October? So far, since spring the MJO waves have been very heavily favoring phases 5-6-7, but with nowhere near the record strength/amplitude we saw last year
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If we do indeed flip to a -AAM regime along with -PDO and -ENSO/Nina, the CANSIPS for fall (SON) makes no sense
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I’m expecting a -AAM dominant fall
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I thought it would descend quicker than this, it’s definitely descending from last year, just not very fast
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@Gawx This solar cycle is taking its sweet time to descend from the max….
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2013 had a completely different system in place than we do this year that was suppressing Atlantic tropical activity, but yes, I remember that season well. When we got to the end of July, people were saying it was going to ramp up in mid-late August, then it was going to ramp up in September, then there was going to be a late season burst in October, which also didn’t happen….before we knew it, it was November and tropical season ended
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This looks to continue well into August. I’m sticking with my previous idea that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up around, if not below 100 total ACE
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Meant to tell you the other day but very good job in calling for the continuation of the -PDO regime and doubting an El Niño. You were one of the very few voices calling for a possible continuation of the -PDO and a 2nd year La Niña
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If correct, that’s easily 90’s again
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@Stormchaserchuck1 Here comes the very beginning of the dry/warm pattern we expected to start for the fall. Looks very likely that the heat builds right back come mid-late August and it also looks like it drys out with the STJ dying as you expected
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IOD and PDO are completely different entities
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IMO the only reason we saw a La Niña winter back in 16-17 was the strong -IOD that developed at the end of summer and fall. If it wasn’t for that, it would have been a 2nd year El Niño winter
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Yes, surprisingly for once it was too warm. Other that that lone exception, the long range modeling has been too cold in the east for almost 10 years now
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Textbook -IOD developing @bluewave
