snowman19

The ensembles are still suggesting a very strong high pressure regime setting up over the North PAC, if this is correct, it would support strong trade winds going into July with obvious ENSO effects and also supports continuation of the strong -PDO…..

Just keep in mind that this is before the projected easterly wind burst which would cause upwelling and cooling

I think once the enhanced trades get going we see pretty substantial upwelling and cooling. This burst coming up looks like it means business. But yea, watch and see for now

Great stuff as always. I know you are also of the opinion that if this La Niña “gets going” and it appears that it is now, it should have no problem going moderate. From what I see, it appears that we are definitely all systems go into July

Support is growing for MJO convection moving into the Maritime Continent, which is favorable for La Niña strengthening going into July. This would increase trade wind bursts/EWBs and raise the SOI. Just looking at the overall synoptic picture, everything else (tropical instability waves, -PDO, -PMM, high pressure building in the North Pacific, IOD taking on a negative signature) is favorable for continued Niña development

There is a theory that solar max actually supports Nina’s and solar min supports Ninos. Why? Solar max = more radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = stronger trade winds = La Niña. Solar min = less radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = weaker trade winds = El Niño

Also, appears to be central-based too

Ridiculous and it’s not even July yet….

@Stormchaserchuck1 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading a study several years ago that correlated a June tripole in the Atlantic to a -NAO winter. I forget the exact details, but basically it argued a very strong correlation to a tripole showing up in June, then “going away” and resurfacing by winter. It showed that the anomalies sink underneath the surface after June then come back to the surface in winter. I assume the inferno SSTs around New Foundland right now is definitely not what we want to see, nothing even close to any semblance of a tripole so far this month

We are in agreement on pretty much everything. Let’s see what happens over the next 5 months, but as it all stands right now, it looks very ugly for winter. Unless there are some major, large scale synoptic changes all around (from PAC to ATL to tropics to arctic to stratosphere to solar) between now and November, I think we may be in real big trouble. That said, seasonal snowfall is always the biggest wildcard, cliche, but it only takes one big luck storm to skew the entire season…..

Lol I mean the PAC is almost always the main driver with everything moving west-east unless you have a winter of anomalous, predominate strong NAO/AO blocking

@Gawx These heatdomes just serving to further increase the already boiling SSTs in the western Atlantic (+AMO), feeding back into the seemingly never ending cycle of amplifying the SE ridge/WAR during winter

It’s clear at this point, the Euro is a warm outlier

@so_whats_happening Any MEI updates? I imagine unlike last year, this La Niña should actually get a normal MEI response with the PDO/PMM both being negative

I agree. I think moderate on the ONI is a very good bet, possibly strong on the RONI

Obviously way early and many months away from seeing if this actually has an effect on the Atlantic tropical season, but could this “Atlantic Niña” and the high solar cycle be flies in the ointment for a hyperactive season?

Getting back to this, twitter is pure comedy sometimes, the land of make believe. The amount of tweets claiming that this Niña is developing just like 2010, 1995, 2017, 2013 is laughable. Besides 2013 not even being an official Niña (cold-neutral), the others were east-based events that either stayed east-based or migrated west later in winter (2011). Literally no model is showing this event as east-based, nor did they ever, at any point in time since the spring. It’s called “let me find the coldest and snowiest Nina’s for the east coast and say that this one is developing just like those did”. So much bad info, wishcasting and delusion on social media. It does meteorology a huge disservice and honestly makes a mockery of it. Same cast of characters, different year….

It’s probably going to be closer to basin wide if anything, but definitely not east-based, as no models are showing or have shown such a scenario in their previous runs

It did, however, we were not going into a La Niña back then

From back in 2021….but this -PDO/-PMM correlation for the summer pattern still applies now, especially with the -ENSO developing:

The fact that the -IOD developed much sooner than I had expected just adds to my confidence that we see at least a moderate La Niña event (going to constructively interfere). Negative IOD/Nina supports Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing (MJO 4-6)

Agree with this. Really the entire 15 year period from 2000-2015 featured above normal snow all averaged out, also several cold winters. People can’t possibly have expected it to continue indefinitely, it was bound to end at some point….