snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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This will probably be the most positive EPO fall on record:
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Paul Roundy has expressed doubts that it ever makes it into phase 7. Reason being, strong easterlies and cold waters from the La Niña shear it apart when the wave tries to propogate into that area
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Yes. Early to mid December may get quite mild. We keep the +EPO and go RNA/-PNA and we lose the -AO/-NAO. I would not be surprised to see pretty healthy above normal temperature departures come 12/15
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Yep. It keeps building -EPO/+PNA mirages over and over in the long range. This has been going on for years now. It has a severe cold bias in the long range. Beware when it shows poleward Aleutian ridges as well. It likes showing big -WPOs that never come to fruition
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As expected, the EPS was way too cold in the long range, yet another phantom -EPO fail:
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The EPS also loses the -AO/-NAO in early December and we go RNA/-PNA. The question then becomes the WPO, with a +EPO if you want to keep a cold supply nearby in Canada…..you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO), the more poleward the better, a flat Aleutian ridge definitely will not cut it. The +EPO is also going to limit how cold it can actually get here
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Exactly. You need the Aleutian ridge to go as poleward as possible (-WPO) to help seed Canada with cross-polar/arctic air. A flat Aleutian ridge won’t do jack squat. That said, you still have the +EPO problem which would limit how cold it can actually get. All models agree on continued +EPO and you are going to have RNA/-PNA. Any +PNA pop isn’t going to last with the current background states in the Pacific (Niña/-PDO/-PMM)
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And no cross-polar flow connection so no real arctic cold. That’s why our departures aren’t cold right through early December
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November 18th and I still have not had to turn my heat on once. Can’t ever remember that happening
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Here comes the final La Niña boost and SST drop that Dr. Ventrice and others were forecasting last weekend:
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Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states
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What does that have anything to do with what phase the MJO propagates to?
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Those plots are inaccurate. The MJO is going phases 4-6 (Niña). We aren’t going to see the waves getting into phases 7, 8 and 1 because of the La Niña. When the waves try to propagate into those areas they will get sheared to shreads and ripped apart by the strong easterlies and cold waters from the Niña
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If the MJO progresses as expected, the pattern will turn mild and we loose the blocking as we get into early December. The composites for MJO 4, 5, 6 along with La Niña and -AAM look like this in December:
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Dr. Paul Roundy, the premier expert on the MJO (developed the Roundy plots) agrees with your concerns. He is forecasting the AO/NAO blocking to only be temporary as the MJO forcing becomes hostile once we get into early December:
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Here is the risk you warned about….
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You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week i’m referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda
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We agree. The +EPO is going to limit any cold. And the WPO is only weakly negative. Also extremely unlikely the +PNA has any staying power given the -PDO, La Niña, -PMM background states.? Once we get into early December, the MJO will support a warming trend. The SPV is becoming very strong and if it couples with the TPV, we have a problem This is not a good sign:
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The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead
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The Niña strengthening. It’s happening despite what JB said
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Yep. This one is coming. We are about to see explosive strengthening and it most likely goes into strong territory for a time. The tropical conditions all support it as does the record -PDO
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Lol!!!! We all know how you are…you quote and listen to Joe Bastardi, enough said. The same Joe Bastardi who said this La Niña was weakening and dead a week ago when it’s about to explode in strength come early December. He’s either A - a totally incompetent quack who hasn’t a clue wtf he’s talking about or B - completely delusional/mental. Take your pick
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The SPV is not weak:
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No one is forcing anything you fool
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This La Niña is about to strengthen big time @donsutherland1 @bluewave:
