snowman19

This is not good, stronger than normal SPV continues, no signs of any SSW or SPV disruption over the next 3+ weeks: 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The VP anomalies history and forecast tells the whole story with the very impressive La Niña standing wave near120 E.

 

This La Niña and -PDO mean business, very well coupled. As you pointed out that Niña standing wave is one of the strongest in history. If we don’t see a major SSW and we follow Niña climo, we are probably going to torch starting by late January and February…..

22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Until I see some changes near Indonesia at this point, I'm extremely skeptical. Models have been underestimating that area the whole time. I'm interested to see NOAA's update.

I agree with you. I doubt we ever see it actually go into phase 8. This is shades of several winters ago when the models wanted to go phase 8 from November through March and it never happened

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2

 

It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately 

If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace 

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If he’s right, yea you get rid of the super -PNA but you also get a +EPO to go along with it, he says it in his tweet chain, that is NOT what you want to see, especially when AAM may work to also flip the NAO positive…Matt Hugo touched on that 

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The talk of a cold and snowy early-mid January may need to be tamed a bit: 

How can anyone pay money to read this clown? Bust after bust year after year. First it was an arctic cold and snowy late November through the New Year, then ooops, cold and snowy early December, nevermind, cold and snowy mid December, nah, I meant cold and snowy late December….now it’s delayed but not denied cold and snowy early January. Snake oil salesman, he is the worst of the worst. Dreadful. Even Henry Margusity isn’t this bad

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

How was this their long-standing thinking? They were forecasting a super cold/snowy December back in November. This is why I stopped following them, they keep changing the narrative to make themselves seem right no matter what scenario happens then claim victory and if anyone questions them, they post nasty tweets in response 

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the EPS and GEPS are raising heights north of Alaska in early January due to the MJO phase 7. But it also looks like they want to maintain the strong ridging south of the Aleutians and the -PNA. So we may get some type of compromise between those two features leading to more of a gradient-type pattern. But the question with all gradients is exactly where they set up. 

Assuming we don’t see a major SSW, it will be interesting to see what happens come mid-late January, that’s the time La Nina’s typically start to bring mild conditions, especially February, as the tropical forcing moves back to the maritime continent. This La Niña is obviously very strongly coupled, along with the -PDO, and if it follows climo that’s what we SHOULD see, however, given AGW, I wonder if something weird happens…..

Just now, EasternLI said:

I've been thinking a little bit about that record -PNA business. I think it's actually possible that the QBO could be contributing to the Pacific ridge directly. I remember reading that the QBO actually has a surface reflection. In the form of North Pacific high pressure. But only in EQBO and la Niña. I'll have to dig around for that.

HM wrote an article back in early 2012 showing that -QBO/Niña strongly supports a flat Aleutian ridge while +QBO/Niña strongly supports a poleward Aleutian ridge

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

ICY in far nw NJ . 31F in Wantage.

Just heard there is severe icing in Warwick, Orange County, NY. Roads are supposedly a disaster 

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The difference between the 12z and 18z GEFS is a great example of how small changes in the Pacific can make a big difference in our area. The 12z run was more like the Euro with height rises north of Alaska. 18z has a stronger Aleutians ridge and a deeper -PNA pattern. So we’ll want to see the EPS idea win out for an improved Pacific. When we have such a strong Aleutians Ridge and -PNA, it’s important to see post day 10 changes move up to the day 6-10 range. It’s always a big confidence booster when an  11-15 day forecast can survive to the 6-10 day range.

18z

12z

 

Same old song since late November….models grossly underestimating the -PNA until we get to the medium range. This is a good explanation of the upcoming pattern for early January: 

Snowed here about half an inch, flurries now. It took awhile to saturate 

20 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Radar says it's snowing. It isn't.

Virga here too. There is a boundary layer dry punch. The HRRR is still showing nothing for accumulations 

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things are not looking good

 

This morning tellies have the NAO and AO heading positive in the 1st week of January  with the PNA staying negative.

 

The PNA  was positive  throughout most of the summer.  SMH.

With the current -PNA/Aleutian ridge feedback pattern in place in the PAC, if the NAO/AO go positive, the SE ridge goes on roids and we will torch big time. The -NAO is the only reason you aren’t in short sleeves right now

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies were pretty consistent since early December in showing a strong -PNA continuing into January. But there was a quick flip to more of -AO in mid-December. So some people took this a good change. But several of us were pointing out that we needed improvement on the Pacific side to make things work. There were even a couple EPS runs that tried to push the ridge a little closer the the West Coast that backed off after only a few runs. While models can see an important signal like the -PNA long range, it verified much stronger the closer we got. The whole Aleutians ridge feedback process really took off. 
 

Dec 23 EPS run for Dec 27 to Jan 3

 

 

Dec 6 run for Dec 27 to Jan 3

 

 

This is not good. If correct, (not saying it is) we are in trouble: 

The new HRRR has next to nothing now. It’s drying the whole precip shield out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021122404&fh=16

Want to see a semi-permanent positive feedback loop in action? Here you go: 

19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Those Pacific warm pool waters we talked about in here really are the driving force of all of this. Be interesting to see what does actually break this loop. Phase 7 until further notice until some event shows up to disrupt this. But phase 7 is very capable of strat disruption as per the literature. La Niña plus EQBO is also favorable for doing that. The -PNA is a complimentary component to this. So do we break the loop before enough damage is done? Or does the strat eventually break the loop? I'd be a little surprised honestly if the MJO were to make a push east with this going on. Thinking it needs an intervening force. Just not sure what ultimately happens with this or what that force will be. 

 

That’s the thing, I don’t think we break this feedback loop anytime soon, this is quite the self-sustaining system we have in place right now. IMO if you want to see a big shakeup, it would be a major SSW and there’s just no signs of that yet. In fact, it appears the SPV gets very strong the 1st week of January. I read the literature you spoke of and it’s definitely promising for a SSW, assuming we actually follow climo….but what is normal climo lately? Lol If we get into late January and we still have a strong SPV with no signs of a SSW and the same tropospheric feedback loop in place, it will not be good to say the least. Plenty for us to watch the next few weeks and good pickup on your part with those very warm waters in phase 7 helping to sustain the wave there. I’m sure you saw ENSO Region 4 is the coldest its been in many years, one of the coldest in over the last 40 years in fact….like you said it’s going to be very difficult for that MJO to propagate east, the cold waters are going to kill the T-storm activity: 

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

14-15 was a furnace December.

Not calling for that, but that winter turned out fine. I've seen some fat squirrels this year too. Let me get the farmers almanac. Nope, we're porked, we had a full moon in August. 

If there was anything concerning, it’s this (SPV). IMO, this is definitely not what you want to see happen in January. Especially since the already in place synoptic tropospheric forcing/drivers are not going anywhere soon  

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s tough to shift the Aleutian Block and deep -PNA once it becomes a self sustaining process. Paul Roundy gives a nice explanation of what has been going on. This is why we are seeing the record Aleutians Ridge and -PNA this month. So it’s no surprise that all the models continue this pattern into the long range.

 

Yes. The main source of the signal is the Rossby wave breaking drops cutoff Cyclones into the tropics that become the equatorial Rossby waves. The waves move Westward and become convective, driving a synoptic response into the extra tropics, forming a feedback loop.

I was looking at this earlier….that positive feedback loop is going to keep that -PNA/Aleutian ridge in place, it’s a self-sustaining process, definitely not good news, especially when you couple that with possible IO convection taking shape mid-January

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the 40s today. Tomorrow will be another mild day before a brief push of modestly colder air knocks down temperatures on Thursday. Overall, temperatures will generally be near or above normal throughout much of the remainder of December. No severe cold is likely through the remainder of December.

It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver.

Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. However, the coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada for much of this period.

January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January.    

In the Midwest, through 4 pm today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was -27.14 today. That is the lowest value since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.453 today.

On December 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.611 (RMM). The December 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.677 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.7° (3.6° above normal).

 

@bluewaveEarly January starting to not look all that cold anymore, here’s the big part of the reason why, that Niña standing wave will not be denied this winter:

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

its not the end of the world if there is 0 measurable snow this season, that would actually be historic and fun to see.  It also considerably increases the odds for seeing a historic positive season in the next few years based on the last 20 years.

 

In the last 30 years, I think only 1 winter came close to a 0 snowfall total winter and that was 01-02, all the other duds still had notable snow events during the Dec-Mar time frame, which would include 97-98, 11-12, 19-20

8 hours ago, EasternLI said:

IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place. 

Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have to face the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing 

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is all part of the interference from the La Niña standing wave. These RMM charts by individual component show what’s going on. Notice how several components are hanging back closer to the Maritime continent.

 

The other issue is this: