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snowman19

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    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, bluewave said:

    Just a little more to go to get out of the top 10 lowest snowfall seasons on record. 

    1 1972-1973 2.8 0
    2 2001-2002 3.5 0
    3 1918-1919 3.8 1
    4 1900-1901 5.1 2
    5 1931-1932 5.3 0
    6 1997-1998 5.5 0
    7 2011-2012 7.4 0
    8 1988-1989 8.1 0
    - 1877-1878 8.1 0
    10 2018-2019 8.7 226
    11 1950-1951 9.3 0
    12 1996-1997 10.0

    The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

    Wednesday looks to kick off the beginning of a warm pattern that will last for a while.

    That should stick a fork in February.

    At least Tonight looks promising.

    The remainder of February is a lost cause and IMO March is above normal for temps, below normal for snow. I see no reason to deviate from my thoughts and I already went over the reasons for my thinking. Nothing has changed IMO

    • Like 1
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    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

    Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

    The SOI was -24.88 today. That's the sixth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for five consecutive days was September 6-11, 2018.

    Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.788. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.169. Should the AO average +1.107 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

    Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month.

    On February 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.021 (RMM). The amplitude fell sharply from the February 14-adjusted figure of 1.423.

    The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8, but a brief push back into Phase 7 based on historical data cannot be ruled out. Such a move could occur at a low amplitude. As the MJO remains in or near Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. However, on account of the abnormally strong polar vortex responsible for the current high AO+ readings, that process could be a slow one.

    The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

    There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

    Given this context, it is likely that the snow event for parts of the region later Sunday into Monday will be largely unimpressive. Central Park could he hard-pressed to exceed an inch or two. Meanwhile, snow-starved Boston (where just 4.8" snow has fallen to date) could pick up 2"-4" snow.

    Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

    In the meantime, Caribou's seasonal snowfall now stands at 131.1". That's the 20th highest figure on record and second highest seasonal total to date. Winter 2007-08 had seen 135.3" snow through February 16.

    Great post!

    • Like 2

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

    Barely any snow with the midweek storm on the Euro in the area. The precip is delayed until the late afternoon compared to early morning it showed yesterday at 12z.

     

    Another storm that went down the drain. The PNA is really killing us.

     

    Don't expect any measurable snow in NYC until the Pac relaxes.

    I tried telling you yesterday. Horrible setup yet again. I wasn’t saying it to troll. When we have a good setup I’ll say it. I don’t like tomorrow night either for the reasons you said about the Euro. I think it shifts north IMO

    • Like 1

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

    The only reason I would believe them is patterns usually have a reload, so I could see a few days of a positive PNA.

    Besides the models sucking horribly in the long range this entire winter, I have reasons for believing that March is not going to be cold or snowy, wrote my reasons a couple of posts above this, just before. Until something proves to me otherwise, I’m going with below normal snowfall and above normal temps for March

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    5 hours ago, bluewave said:

    Very good question about March. We often see cooler influences here for March when El Niño’s intensify from February into March. Since there are so many competing influences this year, that relationship may not hold. This is looking like the strongest WWB and possibly SOI drop of this whole event. Very rare to happen so late in the game. Be interesting to see if the El Niño tries to continue beyond this winter.

     

    80448ABC-80A3-4BE1-B7BE-4EF5F9827E75.thumb.gif.a5d55976441714c24cf98a66daf1355b.gif

    The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March

    February 2019 Discussion I

    in New England

    Posted

    3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Yeah and yet several people dismissed its impacts.

    The MJO has been huge all season and finally it's about to enter the elusive phase 8. EPS continues to look good with the phase 8/1 move. 

    You just dismissed it last week. One day you’re a weenie, the next day you’re cancelling winter. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

    You couldn't be more wrong. the 18z nam and rgem do not agree on either timing or duration of snow. Nam has precip starting around 10am in city and Rgem has it starting at about 7am. Those 3 hours can be a big difference. Also, nam has precip turning to sleet quickly where rgem has a prolonged period of snow not changing over until noon. Where are the similarities.?

    Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other

    • Confused 1

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    in New York City Metro

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