snowman19

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were both showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at some snow this season. 

New run

Old run

This 100% percent. You can already see the post 1st week of March torch coming. 

50 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

1st week of March and maybe into the 2nd week looks cold and stormy. Just need help from the PNA.

The 1st week of March looks cold and that’s it. You aren’t going to get a +PNA to build for any length of time. Why? Look at Bluewave’s new post, you have a super strong PAC jet slamming into the west coast, it crashes into any +PNA that tries to form and knocks it right down. You aren’t going to sustain a +PNA with that raging jet attacking it. Also, no -NAO yet again. No -AO. Bad pattern in early March for an east coast snowstorm for those reasons. The MJO moves into the eastern IO in the first couple days of March and that tropical forcing fully supports a torch pattern developing like all the models are showing after the first week of the month

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to listening to a Sox broadcast out on my deck during a sweltering summer evening amid reports that somewhere in the deepest recesses of a rubber room in Brooklyn, snow88 is still endlessly refreshing wxbell while staring at an MJO chart muttering incoherently.

He’ll still be going strong in April, predicting MJO phase 8, SSW’s, modoki El Nino forcing, blizzards and arctic cold death for NYC while the rest of the civilized world is enjoying spring

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Today's storm proved consistent with historic experience.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -38.91 today. That is the 10th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 10 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.112. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.035. Should the AO average +0.371 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

On February 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.839 (RMM). The amplitude rose from the February 18-adjusted figure of 1.550. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

Another storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

2/21-2/28 looks mild and not favorable at all for snow. 3/1-3/7 looks cold but the models have the pattern breaking down to mild again right after that week. PNA goes negative again towards mid month and zonal flow takes over again with the PAC jet once again blasting in. If something is going to happen snow wise, it needs to be that week, and par for the course this winter, even though it gets cold 3/1-3/7, no -NAO block, unlike last March, we couldn’t buy a -NAO this entire winter

6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has a big signal for the 1st week.

PNA looks great

The EPS has had a “great signal” in the long range since November, same with the weeklies. Going on 5 months of “great signals”. We should have about 300 inches of snow by now according to the EPS 

15 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Thoughts on Upton's forecast map this morning now? They seem to be going a lot higher now than what you were saying yesterday. Looks like they got their info straight now. Thoughts?

Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing 

40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see much sleet with this. Looks like a front end snow thump to rain scenario for us. 

Primary is weak and very far to the west and there's a strong cold airmass in place. This is much different than the last two systems. 

One had a very strong intensifying primary (980s) in the lakes to secondary. The other (Sunday) had a weak low right near us with little CAD ahead of it. 

1-3" WWA is too low. 3-6" is much more likely. Snow could be heavy for a time, maybe 1-2"+ hour rates. This will be a classic WAA thumper. 

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But unlike previous events there's enough low-level cold air to give us 4 or 5 hours of snow. 

Surface cold means nothing if it’s too warm aloft. You will just go to sleet and freezing rain

Just now, weatherpruf said:

If the warm nose is pronounced this will be another mostly sleet to rain event right? Can't catch a break.

Yes it will. The models always underestimate mid-level warming. 

The Upton call this time is a good one. 1-3 inches for the entire metro, I’d even go 1-2 inches, I think 3 would be the limit and isolated. The new 3K NAM illustrates my thinking exactly. There’s going to be a mid-level warm nose. The models always underdue the warm nose. Here’s the 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021918&fh=41

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The pattern has been awful all winter.   That's a factor.  The EPS has also been awful.    Any other questions?

The EPS sucked all winter, the weeklies also sucked all winter. The GEFS flip flopped like a fish out of water in the long range all winter

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Looks like if you are south of I-80 and west of the Hudson its a SECS

Those 10:1 NAM maps are grossly overdone because they count sleet as snow. Use the “positive snow depth” option, much more accurate: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021818&fh=69

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

I agreed with you for last nights bust but if the pecip gets in quicker its a great setup.  This is no way a bad setup the snow just needs to arrive sooner.

The setup isn’t going to allow that to happen though. The Upton disco touched on just that. And last night was a total dumpster fire bust a rama. Why people thought it was going to snow with those soundings, even up by me is just mind boggling

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

How come the mid atlantic is getting several inches if this is a poor setup?

For us. I don’t care about the mid-Atlantic nor was I talking about them. It’s an obvious poor setup for us, Upton agrees. And it doesn’t matter that it’s colder, it’s irrelevant, read their disco they explain the bad setup very well

Guys, FYI the new Euro is only showing 1-2 inches across the metro for Wednesday/Thursday. And that’s both 10:1 and Kuchera, same output 

Upton isn’t buying anything more than 1-2 inches for the entire metro area and for good reason. Their new disco just came out. This is another poor setup for us. 1-2 inches is a best case scenario IMO and we may very well only see a trace. Upton’s Disco: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

31 degrees here in Sloatsburg, intermittent very light snow/sleet showers, not even a dusting or coating. The radar looks like everything is about to end totally. New HRRR is less than a half inch of snow. Heading to bed, goodnight. Edit: All rain now 12:15

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not expecting more than an inch here in White Plains.  

If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16

13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

tonights event starting to look lousy due to both temps and lack of precip for anyone south of Orange/Putnam county, what else is new with the last minute warming trend. 

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

I guess Upton is buying the NAM and HRRR, they just dropped Rockland County to 1-3 inches 

Just now, bluewave said:

Just a little more to go to get out of the top 10 lowest snowfall seasons on record. 

1	1972-1973	2.8	0
2	2001-2002	3.5	0
3	1918-1919	3.8	1
4	1900-1901	5.1	2
5	1931-1932	5.3	0
6	1997-1998	5.5	0
7	2011-2012	7.4	0
8	1988-1989	8.1	0
-	1877-1878	8.1	0
10	2018-2019	8.7	226
11	1950-1951	9.3	0
12	1996-1997	10.0

The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run

11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Wednesday looks to kick off the beginning of a warm pattern that will last for a while.

That should stick a fork in February.

At least Tonight looks promising.

The remainder of February is a lost cause and IMO March is above normal for temps, below normal for snow. I see no reason to deviate from my thoughts and I already went over the reasons for my thinking. Nothing has changed IMO

The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.30°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.40°C for the week centered around February 6. For the past five weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -24.88 today. That's the sixth consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for five consecutive days was September 6-11, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.788. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.169. Should the AO average +1.107 or above for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

Based on historic experience (1950-2018) when the AO reached +3.000 or above during the February 1-15 period, the AO will likely remain predominantly through most of the second half of February. The AO could head toward neutral or negative levels during the last week of the month.

On February 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.021 (RMM). The amplitude fell sharply from the February 14-adjusted figure of 1.423.

The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8, but a brief push back into Phase 7 based on historical data cannot be ruled out. Such a move could occur at a low amplitude. As the MJO remains in or near Phase 8, the AO should begin to decline. However, on account of the abnormally strong polar vortex responsible for the current high AO+ readings, that process could be a slow one.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

There could be several opportunities for snowfall in the East in coming days. However, the probability of significant snowfall events (6" or more) is well below climatology (but not zero) for the Middle Atlantic region. Central/Upstate New York across central and northern New England have a greater probability of seeing significant snow events.

Given this context, it is likely that the snow event for parts of the region later Sunday into Monday will be largely unimpressive. Central Park could he hard-pressed to exceed an inch or two. Meanwhile, snow-starved Boston (where just 4.8" snow has fallen to date) could pick up 2"-4" snow.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

In the meantime, Caribou's seasonal snowfall now stands at 131.1". That's the 20th highest figure on record and second highest seasonal total to date. Winter 2007-08 had seen 135.3" snow through February 16.

Great post!

29 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

New York City is going to get a decent 2-4 tomorrow night that’s my call. Im going to pick the rgem cause it makes perfect sense to me. You guys can disagree and I’ll admit it if I’m wrong here on Monday afternoon. Fair enough?

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021618&fh=63