snowman19

36 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Nam is terrible for our area. Seems like a non event. 

The NAM wants nothing to do with it. It’s now showing half an inch of snow total, even up here. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121512&fh=81

37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

12z/14 EC looks quite good for a mess and a decent front end 2-3" 6 hour dump.  Still lots of detail to be ironed out but the 12z GFS and GGEM were a little  older.  Am expect the NAM to trend colder  but consensus on everything good shift back north... bottom line, a winter event is coming that will need to be considered for adjusting travel plans, especially near I80 north.  Hopefully tomorrow it still looks halfway decent.  (noticed 12z/14 Kuchera a little less than 10 to 1 and snow depth amounts though it might be my interp? Off line til tomorrow). 

Yea, the 10:1 ratio snowmaps aren’t going to work for this one either. There’s a lot of sleet in there getting counted as snow and the ratios are lower than 10:1 again. This isn’t a deep arctic airmass in place Monday and the models always underestimate the mid-level WAA/warm nose until the last minute

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I didnt see you comment on the icebox that  it showed at 12z yesterday. 

You did it for me 

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. 

The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.

The Euro is showing an extremely ugly PAC developing, wow

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific became favorable from 12-26-10 to 2-2-11. We can remember all the day 10 phantom snowstorms the models were producing from late November to the solstice. We needed the -5 AO in mid December and record 500 mb positive height anomaly over Greenland to eventually build the ridge back closer to the West Coast.

 

Yes, the type of -NAO and the strength matters, a weak or even moderate -NAO or an east-based -NAO does you no good at all when the PAC is total garbage. When the PAC is real bad, you need a strong/very strong Greenland blocked, west-based negative NAO. You also need a strong/very strong -AO to go along with it or you’re going to have big, big problems

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other.

A +PNA ridge doesn’t help you with a very strong PAC jet crashing into it, it gets blown apart as fast as it forms, see last winter. If that’s going to be the case again, the Atlantic and arctic sides need to cooperate and compensate for what’s happening on the Pacific side with very strong blocks (west-based -NAO Greenland block and -AO) or you’re dead in the water again since our weather comes in from the west

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My concern is the the fast Pacific flow pushes the ridge axis too far east for a decent storm track. While the day 8-10 means have come in colder than a few days ago, that ridge could eventually shift back over the area day 11-15. We really need extreme Atlantic blocking to counter an unfavorable Pacific.

Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks

13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a clipper moving into the ne. The gfs has a southern steam system coming out of the sw. How does that "verify" what the gfs shows?

He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has been showing a storm around that timeframe for days. Nao and AO look favorable also.

We track

Because the GFS is so accurate at Day 10. It flip flops like pancakes at IHOP. By far the most horrible model out there 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cute solution. 

Imagine if the GFS was actually a good model? Lol Snow88 will believe the op GFS though, “It showed it for many runs” lol

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Dont even bother replying to him. He is a troll.

How was your white rain this morning? Lol

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Am thinking suppression is the least likely outcome.  I am thinking a track into New York State given little blocking unless the weekend system can 50/50.  But that would depend on extent of blocking. Even with an inland track, antecedent cold air might be tough to scour out especially low levels (ice signal?) , but that would depend on the speed of a retreating maritimes high. 

The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend 

The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow...

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is false

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16  New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either 

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

It has the weekend storm becoming the 50/50 low. So cold high pressure holds on over New England. The Euro would be a nice front end thump if it verified like that. While it’s still a long  way out, it’s something that theoretically could work in this pattern. We just need that 50/50 to hold on long enough. Otherwise, the high will scoot east too fast and later runs could correct warmer. 

That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

very dry-an inch or two for most here.

The last 5 runs of the op Euro and EPS have gotten drier and drier 

40 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, only the delusional did.

Yea pretty much only Snow88 and NYCWeatherNow thought this weekend was going to be a snowstorm 

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I haven't seen 1 meteorologist that uses the snow depth maps.

Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow

This is far from a “crushing” NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120812&fh=84

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be close to 40 when we have a changeover after midnight. Remember it will be in the low 60’s on Tuesday. Temperatures will need to fall to at least 33 or 34 for light accumulations on the grass to occur in NYC Central Park. Plus you need enough of a snowfall rate to get accumulation  the ball rolling in marginal temperarures.

Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that

Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get.

Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Like your call was great for the last storm 

Central Park saw a whopping 1.5 inches of snow out of it

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And before someone calls me a weenie , see Meteorologist  Webb post regarding the gefs.

 

Webb

I really like the way the GFS & GEFS have been trending w/ the shortwave that enters California in about 60-66 hours (going towards yesterday's weenie 12z Euro run). If we can continue to get more digging & more stream separation on future runs, I might be in business for a winter storm later next week.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1202484903415291904

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its already wrong.  Its 16-17Z depiction based on current radar does not have the showery look between CDW-FRG.  I'm trying to find a high res model at the moment that seems to be handling this best.  Overall the HRRR might be closest.

You beat me to it, so far the HRRR seems to be the most accurate. It did very well with yesterday’s non event on the front end