snowman19

20 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Its extremely close. 850 and 925's are 0-1 degrees

Right, very close. The mid-level warming and surface temps are going to lower ratios and cause sleet intrusion, dropping totals IMO 

I think the mid level warm nose is going to limit snowfall tonight/tomorrow morning. There is going to be a lot of sleet. I think the 1-2” forecast from the NWS is very reasonable

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So you went from saying that it was going to be all rain to now a concern about suppression. LMAO

It’s called a changing pattern. Yes, that was a risk a few days ago. Shortwaves and stream flows moved around. You do know weather changes and evolves right?

The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk

19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM way SE for Sat Morning compared to it's last run. Not sure how this may impact the other storm  

It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022818&fh=48

Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

You seen the eps

I have, and there are several members leaning NW of the mean. My views have not changed at all 

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday 

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro is no good. Amped and rain for most.

That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO

Who cares what the FV3 shows? Confirmed worst model out there. So incredibly horrible that NWS won’t even implement due to all the complaints about its abysmal performance 

Here is the NAM total snowfall for tomorrow night/Thursday morning and the snow showers on Friday, all combined: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022700&fh=84

9 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

It isn’t rain. Check the model

You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck

4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

There’s a coating to an inch Wednesday night. 1-3 for Saturday and 4-6 on Monday. And next Wednesday looks interesting for a big storm! Very nice run

Saturday does not look like 1-3 inches at all. It’s rain unless you’re in New England 

52 minutes ago, yoda said:

UKMET is coastal rain storm for you and me... you get a lil snow before the 850 line moves north

The UKMET is also total weak sauce, 1002mb low. Unimpressive 

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The last 4 years here's the snowfall in NYC from March 1 on.

2015 - 18.6 inches

2016 - 0.9

2017 - 9.7

2018 - 17.1

And of course that's the warm spot in our area.

 

 

I’m talking March 15th on. Not pre March 15th

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Check last March

Completely different, rare situation, that’s not happening this time. As a general rule it’s over for the NYC metro come 3/15 minus a rare setup

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

1. Honestly, in a normal March, you dont get much more than that anyway.

2. LR has been so off this year, if the 10th became the 5th or 15th or if there was blizzard during our AN period, It wouldnt surprise me.

A week ago you wouldnt have put money on an LR...dont bet the house because the calendar turned to March.

 

3. That wind was particularly loud and fierce last night. Built into the side of a ridge off the Saw Mill river...I was awoken several times

March 15th is pretty much the cut off in any year for anyone south of central/northern New England. By the 15th, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day at our latitude. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The late Feb/early March cold is legit. The strong -EPO has at the very least brought the cold this season. 

We'll probably see some teens with highs in the 20s early March before things warm up. 

The cold early March time frame, 1st-9th is legit, courtesy of the -EPO. I just don’t see a big snowstorm during that period, why? No -NAO. No -AO either. Flow is very fast and the PNA is negative, very negative in fact. The thing that separates us from the past several March’s is the NAO, the block is just not there this time

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Last March was epic

This winter has sucked. Time to say bye bye.

The thing that “saved” the last few March’s was the strong -NAO blocks that would pop up at the beginning of the month, this year, that ain’t happening. There’s nothing to stop the PAC jet from just blasting across the CONUS this time

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Do you see a snow event before 10th? There seems to be forum consensus that post 10th will be warm.

Unusually strong signals for warmth starting March 9th onward with the tropical convective forcing propagation. March, 2012 warmth? No, but definitely well above normal. As far as snow before the 10th? The setup is not good IMO. No -NAO or -AO, very fast flow, -PNA. If something does pop up, it’s very likely to be minor and not a coastal storm 

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Watch, we will probably start getting nor'easters in March that will wind up being all rainmakers. Timing has also been our problem amongst the other obvious issues.

I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond

30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS still has a very cold pattern starting March 3rd. Almost a week of well below normal temps. The cold is too overpowering so any storms stay way to the south. However if the model is overdoing the cold/confluence it's possible we can get something in here. I see a lot of people giving up, but having extended cold in early March at least gives us a chance. Right now it looks cold/dry, but it's too early to say for sure that we won't get any snow out of the cold pattern.

The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point. 

The new Euro has the same old repeating pattern we’ve been seeing since November right through day 10, hit the repeat button. That takes us through March 5th. We’re running out of time here

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today =)

The 1st week of March looks less and less impressive for cold and it always looked like a dud for snow. The fat lady is walking up on stage and clearing her vocal cords right now

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We're about done-the big pattern the models showed a few days ago is already falling apart just like they have all season long.   Have to hope for a lucky storm but we're about finished here.   (And who cares if it's cold for a week-big deal)

After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it

March is less than a week away now. Discuss :-)