snowman19

I won’t wait until it’s blatantly obvious to fail, but my call for a pattern change for mid-January isn’t going to happen as it stands now. Too soon. It was mentioned already, but this unfavorable MJO wave was so strong and persistent that it’s going to have atmospheric lag effects. I also don’t think the SSW is going to be of much, if any help at all, the vortex is most likely going to dump on the other side of the hemisphere. I’m still hopeful for late January but it’s becoming obvious over the last few days that the pattern isn’t going to be in a full scale change by mid month

Just now, dendrite said:

It's burying the southern stream longer in the SW. It's probably wrong, but we'll see what the euro does.

Yea, the UKMET evolution just looks odd. It would be an inside runner and rain anyway which I’m sure no one wants 

51 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

If that happens there would be some big time weenie cliff diving going on including yours truly.

Worst case scenario for January at least. Then you will be depending on February and March for a big flip and by then you start to fight against the clock

26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Or the pv splits and ends up on the other side of the world. See eps.

You’re 100% right. If that happens we are in real big trouble and my call for mid January busts and busts badly

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

I enjoy storms of all sorts not just snow, but even I'm sick of the rain. 12z euro, still don't see any meaningful changes... maybe by day ten as colder air starts to push south.

I think it’s getting clearer by the day that we will wait until 1/15 or shortly thereafter before we see a meaningful, lasting change to a colder, snowier pattern

27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was.   We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking.  

The super Niño forced a ++EPO pattern. It completely overwhelmed the arctic and Atlantic signals 

15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah if it was like 5 degrees colder 97-98 would have been epic

Thank you Rjay. Anyway, in response to dmillz post, the problem with 97-98 was the insanely positive EPO, which was caused as a result of the super El Niño we had in place back then. The NAM (AO/NAO) actually was good that winter, it was just that the Pacific ++EPO signal was so strong that it completely overwhelmed everything 

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another rainstorm  for the 4th on the Euro

SMFH

 

 

The pattern is still going to be horrible then

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think we need to see deeper into January before get worried. Honestly, this is eerily similar to 2014-2015 in a lot of ways...in fact, December was colder and had more opportunities than 2014 did, but we whiffed on them so we ended up with similar near-zero snowfall that 2014 had.

Early January 2015 had big arctic cold shots mixed with torching cutters....the pattern was changing, but we were still getting on the wrong side of the initial arctic gradient...i.e., chaos continued to conspire against us even though we probably could have easily gotten a nice SWFE if the nuances lined up correctly.

Finally the PNA ridge established itself further east by late January and we were off to the races. Again, I'm not predicting we will repeat that 100" in 3 weeks type insanity...but even a much toned down version (like 50" in 5 weeks) would obviously completely change the tenor of the winter. I don't see signs of failure yet in the progression. If it starts showing up, I'm definitely going to post my concerns.

Wasn’t 14-15 helped in large part by the very ++PDO? If I remember correctly, I think the PDO was well over +2 for Jan-Mar, 2015. It’s nowhere near that positive now 

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

It's unfortunate we had to lose December thanks to the MJO being in a warm phase for the most part. People need to stop freaking out though. WE are currently going through a SSW warming event as we speak. Once that rubber band snaps back post Jan. 10th and we get a full pattern reversal, this board will be rocking.  

A SSW doesn’t guarantee a cold east. It could split or displace in a bad spot. It can fail to downwell to the troposphere and couple

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Imagine if this happens?

Winter forecasts will all fail

If that actually happens, we’re in big trouble, for January at least  

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Get ready for some longer range model volatility with the fire hose Pacific Jet development near Japan. 

 

 

If the jet configuration still looks like this come 1/15, it will be a very bad sign. I’m sticking with my thoughts for now, but not going to lie, after today’s guidance, I’m starting to wonder. That is a very troubling sight

13 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Should I interpret this to mean that the PAC can mean a more zonal flow and moderate temps/less snow?

I’m not anticipating it, but if we get to mid-January without the change in the Pacific that I think is coming, and a change is not at least imminent, on the doorstep at that point, then it will be time to get worried. Like I said, I don’t think that’s going to happen. You also don’t need the SSW for the change, the tropospheric forcing should do that on its own without any help from the stratosphere. There are serious doubts emerging today from the experts on the SSW and what actually happens with it anyway, it may not even downwell enough to affect the tropospheric pattern and a split, if it even happens now or a displacement may very well not be favorable for the east this time like it was back in March

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC has only seen 40" or more one time in the January 15-March 1 timeframe. During January 15, 2014-March 1, 2014 total snowfall was 42.3".

Thank you Don. I didn’t look up the actual data but I knew such a scenario was not only unlikely but an extremely rare feat. Even if extended 3 more weeks to 3/21, an extreme rarity still I’m sure 

2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

A serious question-if we are going to enter an active, wintry period, say Jan 15-March 1, what are the odds of 40 plus inches of snow during that time frame?

Over 40 inches of snow in the metro between 1/15-3/1? You’re talking historic. Can a few real big storms and a couple of small events in between get you there? Sure. Would I predict such a pattern? Nope 

53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

New Year’s Eve looks remote to me at this time.  There isn’t a whole lot of room there to get that thing more amped without also poisoning the air mass in place.  It’s likely that if that comes far enough up its rain anyway 

^This. It’s very remote. The 12/30-1/3 time frame is still really bad for snow here. People need to be patient

15 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

We need that EURO back..

Honestly, over the last couple of winters, the Euro has lost a lot of its luster. Flip flops and busts a lot more than I can ever remember. The Para GFS has definitely not been the best either, the guys in the NE forum just pointed this out as well

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

So you favor a miss or rain ?

If something actually happens I think it’s minor and rain, most likely a miss though. You will get your cold and snow pattern come mid January and it probably lasts for awhile, into mid to late February then it’s game over for winter IMO. I don’t think March is going to produce this time. And you don’t need this ridiculously hyped SSW for it to happen, the tropospheric forcing will do it anyway on its own, even without help from the stratosphere. Sunday, in my opinion, is not for us

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks...

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

inland north of 78 or 80 yes - immediate metro NYC a mixed bag rain/snow - little accumulation as of right now - temps borderline at best ………..

12/30, if it even happens that is, looks like a very minor event and yes with borderline temps. We are going to have to wait until mid-January before the pattern gets favorable for snow/cold in the metro area

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The SSW, while won't be necessary for cold/snow for the mid Jan to mid Feb period, can allow for an extension of winter well into March. 

Why would a SSW event at the end of December/early January allow a cold and snowy pattern to extend well into March, over 2 months later? I don’t understand

6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

MJO continues to drive the bus.  It looks progressive, generally think post Jan 5th looking better for us in the NE.  The SOI dip is (in my view) a function of convection finally starting to emerge over the maritime continent.

 

Think all the SSW talk is misplaced on weather twitter right now.  Story is the amplitude of this MJO.  Much better correlation to sensible weather at this time of year.  The MJO amp is arguing this gets interesting in January (esp. Second week) but being patient on the cold has been the correct play.

 

Something I can't shake though is the durability question.  SSW's in theory have lag time before you see increased and durable blocking when they couple with the tropo.  So what happens if we get to 8-1 and then still have a little bit of a lull to see non-Pac blocking show up?   That's as big of a question to me as the exact timing of the cool down.

I’m thinking the same. We don’t even need the SSW, the pattern is going to get colder come mid-January (1/15+) just from the change in tropospheric/tropical convective forcing. I think the 12/31-1/1 “event” is nothing, total non event. When the GFS is the only model showing something and even what is shows isn’t that impressive, something is seriously wrong. I’m thinking 1/15 through mid to late February is cold/snowy, then that’s it. No cold and snowy March this time around, spring comes and stays by early March IMO. The +QBO will be in the bottom of the stratosphere and strengthening at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and that’s all she wrote

15 hours ago, Rjay said:

@snowman19 can i please get the cliff notes to your winter forecast?   TIA

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Will depend if this area across NNJ lifts north or not as many models indicate but right now it seems to want to set up close to NYC and dewpoints are way lower than forecast 24 hours ago.  It’s possible Central Park might dodge the December shutout albeit with like 0.1 or 0.2

The new run of the HRRR is very unimpressive: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122404&fh=13

Just now, Animal said:

Local point & click is calling 1-3 inches in Sussex County.

Yea, that’s a good call for the higher elevations in NW Sussex County, NJ

Just now, Animal said:

Local point & click is calling 1-3 inches in Sussex County.