snowman19

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I  think for the winter we might be looking at 1973-74 and 1983-84, warmer version of course.  Which means maybe a couple of minor/moderate 4-6 inch events, pac dominated and lack of blocking.

But I'm gung ho on a hot and dry summer (at least dry June and July-- August could be wetter depending on TC affecting our region, but dry otherwise.)

 

We are primed for a very strong La Niña event. If the IOD goes negative like the CFS monthly is suggesting, it’s really off to the races, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. 

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No it doesn't mean next winter will be good, but the hot and dry summer call looks pretty good right now.  It's already starting to dry out and heat is almost a given.

You can put 1983 in this list too, so 1983, 1995 and 2010 analogs are good for the summer.

Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I like this... this is a typical el nino to la nina transition and can be compared to 1995 and 2010.

 

Ok JB lol

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. When was the last time in advance of winter that he said the “worry” is it will be warmer than his forecast in the E US?

2. He mentions his energy clients often. Energy companies typically do better when winter is cold in the E US. I think this reinforces his natural cold bias in winter.

3. There was no major SSW in Dec like he thought might occur though there were a couple Jan-Mar.

4. He hardly ever recognizes the cold bias that has prevailed for years with the seasonal models.

5. I’m predicting he’ll once again not go warm for his FINAL winter forecast 2024-5. He’s already been showing strong hints about this. One thing he’s already harping on is suggesting a +PDO next winter based on what are clearly to me faulty Weatherbell CFS SSTa map progs for late in 2024 as I’ve shown, including not showing the E/SE of Japan marine heatwave and instead showing cold in a good portion of the W/C Pac. This is despite TT maps from the same CFS as well as from other models showing -PDO continuing.

6. There isn’t even a single winter when for the bulk of the E US he went warm at least since 2014-5 (I don’t mean just slightly AN) and stayed that way. There was one recently (2020-1) that he started off pretty warm (~+3) and cooled it considerably to NN for his final forecast. His frost covered glasses wouldn’t let him go warm and stay that way:

Prelim DJF 20-1

Final DJF 20-21:

 

 One thing I will give him kudos for was recognizing the importance of the concept of RONI vs just using ONI due to the very warm SSTs elsewhere that were dominating even though it didn’t help his fcast:

“There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño”

He isn’t just going for a cold and snowy east coast winter this year, he’s going epic (95-96, 10-11). I can see it coming already. That’s why he’s wishcasting a huge Atlantic hurricane season with recurves and super high ACE, 95-96 (-NAO) and a +PDO. He knows that even if the +PDO doesn’t work out, he can just fall back on 10-11 being -PDO/+QBO, and still use 95-96 if his tropical Atlantic wishcast works out

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

Record cold and snow was coming for 6 months in a row according to him. His 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 “analogs” and “migrating Modoki” worked out superbly lol First it was Thanksgiving week/late November, then Christmas week, then late December/New Year’s, then late January and early February, then mid-late February “Sixteen Chapel” cold and snow pattern, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, then late March/early April, “coldest and snowiest start to spring in history”. Anyone who actually takes him seriously anymore needs a psychiatric evaluation 

37 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Job well done. “Dry” period starting off great. 

Haven’t seen a drop here…

It’s a miracle! Please, let’s go into a long-term drought!

49 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what was the high for the city today?

Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes? 

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally.

I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That was the torch of all torches.   Almost no precip either...

As @GaWx pointed out, we have only had 6 -NAO winters since 1979-1980. Literally ALL of those 6 occurred during solar minimums with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. We have the complete 180 degree opposite of that right now with the solar max/high solar flux/high geomag cycle. Given this fact, predict a -NAO winter at your own risk 

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's only predicted a warm winter once that I can remember-sometime in the early 2000's (he was right too).   He's been god awful since 2015 which was really our last cold winter.  His cold bias gets in the way.  Not sure anyone really takes him seriously anymore-he's had to have lost ALOT of clients after the last few years and then his wonky political stuff too lol...    He'll probably be right on the hyperactive Atlantic season although the verdict is out as to whether it's a recurve season or coastal strike season.

No doubt in my mind that he’s going for a huge cold and snowy east coast winter this year. That’s the reason why he’s hyping a La Niña with a hyper active recurving Atlantic hurricane season and a +PDO. He’s looking for any excuse to say 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are analogs (if the PDO doesn’t work out, he will say the +QBO matches 2010). His entire existence depends on the east coast weenies forking him over subscription money and giving him likes, follows and retweets on X

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Lots of auroral activity too

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October 

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

@GaWx My guess is that if the PDO stays negative he will say that and the +QBO “matches” 2010 and if there’s an above normal/high Atlantic ACE hurricane season, he will say that it matches 1995. So it’s the best of both worlds for him. If for some odd reason (in the very unlikely event) the PDO goes positive, all the better. Either way, 95 and 10 will be his analogs, you can see it now

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Just for once I’d love to see JB predict a warm winter for the bulk of the E US and stick with it! He’s already been trying to suggest a +PDO for next winter despite there being -PDO on all TT extended SSTa maps I’ve seen.

 Here may be the reason he’s suggesting +PDO, which I feel will very likely fail. Below is a WB CFS SSTa map for NDJ (1981-2010 climo): 

Compare the above to TT CFS (same model!) NDJ map below (similar climo of 1984-2009):

1. Why is it so cold S Japan SE/Eward on WB but almost opposite on TT?

2. Why is there ~warmest SSTa in N Pac off Cali/Baja on WB (JB already saying he likes it there because that’s consistent with +PDO) while TT’s only slightly warm there with much warmer in WPAC E/SE of Japan?

3. Why is WB so cold in IO vs NN on TT?

4. Why is WB cold in SPAC E of Aust. vs warm on TT?

5. Why is WB so warm in SPAC W of S.A. vs NN on TT?

6. Why is it BN off SE US on WB vs AN on TT?

7. Why is strip N of Antarctica AN on WB vs BN on TT?

 My point is that I’m suggesting the WB CFS SSTa maps, which I feel are causing JB to think +PDO next winter, are likely way off for whatever reason(s). I’m predicting a -PDO as per TT and typical climo of robust La Niña/consistent with marine heatwave remaining E of Japan.

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

@donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

as long as it's sunny it won't really matter if it's cold for a few hours during the early morning hours... I am SO happy it's going to be sunny next week either way.

“Cold” in mid-late April doesn’t have the same meaning it does in March

Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
 

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

God I hope this summer roasts just so we can taunt you all season long

I hate the heat and humidity but I’m rooting for upper 90’s with 80 degree dewpoints just because of him

7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

IMHO that kind of speculation is very premature. As mentioned it can be deceiving in both directions. 
Smart people were calling HTHH a 3-4 a day after it happened thinking the entire column was steam (it wasn’t, 1.9 cubic kilometers of ash in it which is already well into VEI 5 territory). And hidden underwater was another 6-8 cubic kilometers of ignimbrite (massive pyroclastic flows from caldera collapse). 
Just IMO and I’m not caught up on this one yet. 

To answer your question it would be rare but not even historically without precedent. Six years before Tambora’s VEI 7 in 1815, there was a mystery eruption from a not fully identified volcano that was at least a VEI 6 in 1809. A six and a seven that close together is pretty mind boggling. And remember a 6 could be 10 cubic kilometers like Pinatubo or 99 cubic kilometers, basically a near 7. At VEI 6 level is when the scale sort of breaks in terms of perception. Things just start getting really ridiculous massive. 

Reading on twitter now that the ash plume has reached over 70,000 ft. This is going to be an interesting one to follow
 

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks impressive on the satellite.

 

 

It’s getting more impressive by the hour. Sulfate aerosol measurements are continuing to rise and it appears to be reaching the stratosphere 

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This *could* potentially have big stratospheric implications….major tropical volcanic eruption ongoing. If this thing pumps enough sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, it could conceivably have effects on next winter’s SPV and NAM (AO) state. This needs to be followed closely @Volcanic Winter…
 

@Volcanic Winter @bluewave Just to add, there is some speculation that this eruption may reach a VEI 6. Wouldn’t that be unprecedented to have 2 VEI 6 eruptions this close together? I know Hunga Tonga was a 6….