snowman19

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

enjoying this winter morning in the city coat hoodie hat and gloves...

Happy Spring!! 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro and CMC are very wet just off the coast-with the usual correction N and W we could get a ton of rain

Shocking. Another weekend washout

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

10:1 ratios lol

12 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Don - I like that you are being careful with not ruling out any significant snowfall past March 20th .......

If you mean High Point State Park in Sussex County, NJ may get some more snow then I agree. The entire NYC metro area is done though

On 3/14/2024 at 1:13 PM, Brian5671 said:

I think it comes down to a few things-for a period of time he refused to acknowledge that the globe was warming...then he did but said it was not man made (Right now he insists its volcanoes underwater warming the ocean (which I cannot find any scientific support for) This along with his anti vaxx and extremist political posts on twitter have further alienated him (when was the last time you've seen him on a real network?  He used to be on several news networks regularly as a guest)  He uses an analog approach to forecasting which worked well until we entered a steeper rate of warming 10 yrs ago.   Analogs from the 1950's to the 1970's won't do much in today's warmer climate.    Thus he has busted horribly especially on temps the last few years.  My two cents but agree with your post overall.

Just read on twitter that JB is still hyping arctic cold and an Easter weekend snowstorm for the I-95 corridor on his paid site. He’s got to have some screws loose

17 hours ago, Rjay said:

No we don't.  At this point we just need more 70s.

We need the PAC to change for what? Lol winter’s done. We’re out of time, the clock ran out, game over. We’re already into meteorological spring, been in solar spring since February, daylight savings time in effect and astronomical spring starts Tuesday

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Frigid!!!

Going to be a rough 9 months coming up for him I guess lol

Anyway, everyone enjoy your weekend, gonna be off the grid for a few days, wedding festivities the next 2 days, starting with the rehearsal dinner tonight….

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

He’s completely insufferable and has decided to go down with the ship this year. Crash and burn. These last 2 winters were his worst busts of all time and that’s saying something. Worse than the 01-02 “vodka cold” winter, worse than the 11-12 winter, when it took him until after Valentine’s Day to finally admit defeat. He’s Casey Jones right now….

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sleight of hand:

From this:

To this:

Notice the change in region being emphasized (from eastern North America to worldwide).

The latest ensemble guidance shows nothing close to among the "coldest opening weeks of spring on record." Back in December, when it became clear that a forecast for a frigid December would not verify, the analogs were shifted (colder ones dropped and others added) to suggest that the forecast had been for a warm December in the East. In fact, the analogs had been posted on the Weatherbell final winter forecast, so one could find the change that had been made to try to evade a big forecast error.

This little east coast cold and snow charade of his has been ongoing since November….first it was Thanksgiving, then it was Christmas, then late December/New Year’s, then mid-late January, then early February, then mid-late February, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, now it’s the end of March. Kicking the can down the road for 5 months in a row and counting. How do people waste their money to read this wishcasting??

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's delusional.   Even JB gave up.

It’s the equivalent of someone who just lost a loved one and is in very deep denial…..

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. 

Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 

*Interior Northern New England*
 

Fixed it for you

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. 
 
Of course interior areas  will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 

If you’re talking about interior areas of Northern New England then I agree

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take advantage of the nice weather.. and while your’re at it.. a few male prisoners in back of the cruiser .

There’s “Seasonal Affective Disorder” for the winter, which is understandable, but there must also be one for people who hate warm weather, sun and after 7pm sunsets. Maybe it’s just not an official diagnosis yet….

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

63 here.  TORCH CITY

61 here. Looks like Thursday gets into the 70’s with sun, warmest day we’ve had since November 

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Something has to be done 

How can we trust the long range anymore? 

The problem is also the people who are still falling for this after the last 5 months in a row. Cold and snow and blocking fail in the long range over and over again. This has literally been going on since November. Shame on them

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024031112&fh=222&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snodpc_acc-mean-imp&m=gefsens

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Almost 

Storm is back

The op GFS again. We’re done, we’ve been done.

@Rjay You’re going to have to hire grief counselors for some in here soon I think…..

46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm sure there will be some that will insist a great winter is on the way....

The PAC and Atlantic have been in a positive feedback loop for years now and keep going right back to their default states no matter what ENSO does. Probably AGW related, which is accelerating very quickly now

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why all the EPS extended forecasts beyond day 15 defaulted to the past El Niño climo expectations of a trough in the East and a more robust Aleutian low. Instead we got the ridge south of the Aleutians and a very strong ridge in the East. This matches the La Niña background state over the past decade with frequent and amplified MJO 4-7 phases.

 

 

Very early obviously, but it’s looking like yet another La Niña (possibly strong), -PDO, ++AMO and blazing WPAC SSTs on the way again for next fall/winter. Groundhog Day continues 

13 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

And just like that…it’s gone!!

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe graupel or small hail later today as we get some surface based CAPE. So gusty squall-like convection possible later today with gusts over 40 mph. Then we have a shot at 50-60 mph gusts tomorrow with the very steep lapse rates and increasing LLJ allowing deep mixing.

It’s extremely unstable already stratocumulus and cumulus clouds galore right now

On 3/6/2024 at 2:19 PM, donsutherland1 said:

A vanquished forecaster has attempted to shift the timeframe to undo the Groundhog's verification. From outside his burrow among the blossoms, Punxsutawney Phil has responded.

I don’t know what’s scarier, the fact that he’s still posting this garbage after his epic, monumental failure of a winter forecast or the fact that his followers are delusional enough to still believe him…..

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s over and has been over. Time for nice weather.

It never even started south of interior central and northern New England 

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

certainly dont wanna hear about a drought this summer. we have gotten slammed with rain.

Unfortunately given the ridiculously high soil moisture and ++AMO, I think we are in for a very humid summer. The developing La Niña and continued -PDO alone supports a hot summer and strong WAR/SE ridge

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

1.9" here. Backyard is a pond/swamp again.

Easily got close to 2 inches up here. Torrential rain last night. It’s been relentless for the last 6 months. My buddy said the sump pump in has cellar hasn’t stopped running since October. The ground and soil is completely saturated, can’t hold anymore water. The rivers, lakes, streams, reservoirs are all at capacity