snowman19

1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said:

Those CMC runs that showed the fantasy snow over NY metro had the primary as far E as Cleveland.

 

It's winding up over Green Bay. This was recognizable with the models keying in on a stronger WAR (as they had all season long). That primary had no route to come further E at that point...and that's not a recipe for snow around here in January let alone April.

Yep. The CMC 10:1 ratio “snow” maps from Tropical Tidbits that were getting shared and hyped for the simple reason that they showed snow were laughable. They had zero support from any other global or mesoscale model from the word go but people ran with them anyway…..

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CMC has one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. 

I sure has, way worse than the GFS. I still can’t believe some mets actually ran with it and its bogus projections for this week

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing 

Yup. Nam has quite a strong mid and lower level warm push.

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

About 1997

A further north version

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

For what ?

Some were saying this week’s pattern looked like April of ‘82. Obviously a horrible match

Just now, MJO812 said:

Moderate rain here

The beat goes on

So much for the April, 1982 hype on “X” last week….

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. 

I'm buying a shovel and salt 

Ok Joe Bastardi…..

14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Unfortunately this IS the storm to end this garbage and misery lol

Thankfully it looks like this week is the beginning of the end of this horrific pattern. My little cousin’s little league season starts on Saturday. Hoping for decent weather from here on out for them

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I think we easily see 3+ inches of rain between today and Friday morning 

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think anyone up there gets that amount of sleet. 

NAM cold bias again. God awful model. It was way too cold all winter long. Outlier….tossed

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. 

 

New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low  further west

Old run weaker Southeast ridge

Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge

This wouldn’t have been a snowstorm in the metro area in mid-January let alone April. All rain event start to finish….

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is nice for the interior but likely too cold

 

The NAM at 84 hours is like looking at the Famer’s Almanac for a forecast

5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Keep in mind you're reading the New England forum and he's talking about positioning. Not emphatically endorsing the CMC Ptypes for NY Metro. Context.

I would argue that even for interior central New England, this is not a snowstorm, not with a juiced up primary low cutting that far north

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Things have really trended away from an earlier transfer and stronger costal storm. This is now just a week of miserable weather 

Soil moisture is over 120% of normal right now and all the rivers, lakes, streams and reservoirs are at capacity. The last thing we need is more rain but here it comes again 

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Basically a cutter with a late developing coastal-would have been rain even in January

Yep. Best of luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area with a very strong primary low cutting that far north before coastal redevelopment takes over. This is an all rain event

18 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Almost looks like the CMC is struggling with convective feedback the way the coastal develops towards New England and then all of a sudden pops off NJ.

Easy toss 

The CMC is an extreme outlier. Toss it right into the trash where it belongs. Saying it’s not is wishcasting, pure and simple

25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!! 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

La nina coming in strong 

I’m worried about a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season coming up…record warm MDR already, ++AMO, rapidly developing (possibly strong) La Niña…bad, bad combination. I also think we see a very hot summer with a likely roided up SE ridge and given the extreme soil moisture we have in place, it’s probably going to be humid as hell too

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

As we can see on the models. Once next week's storm passes, warm weather will start showing up.

Yep, big warmup coming, multi-model ensemble agreement on that too. Would not surprise me at all to see widespread 70’s show up again

The storm is trending into an interior northern New England event. April, strong primary/parent low driving into Lake Erie, no antecedent arctic airmass in place prior to the event, strong WAR out ahead of it, coastal redevelopment happens too late for this latitude….

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Clearly a south trend right now. GFS could give us some snow showers at least. Cold aloft and surface in the 30s

We haven’t seen a “south trend” all winter long. Good luck lol 

@Brian5671 Agree 100% with you, the comparisons being made by some on X to 4/6/82 are wishcasting at its finest. We had a very anomalous true arctic outbreak back then. It is apples and oranges, not even remotely close

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ridging is north with lower heights in SE Canada. 

Onshore flow will still be an issue. Water temps east of us aren't very warm either. 

No 80s 

Ok

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Good.    Lets get the torch back

I think we hit the 80’s by mid-April

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and the "so and so says on X" 

“X” has already decided that it’s going to be a historic I-95 snowstorm/blizzard. In their world, winter doesn’t end until June