snowman19

Not for the interior plus the CMC is now suggesting it

Tropical tidbits “snow” maps at 10:1 ratios. Incorrect clown maps. Severely, laughably overdone, it even says “includes sleet”. That’s not even remotely close to reality, but you do you

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps

No cold. Funny how you don’t show the EPS snow mean. I wonder why that is?

 

@NEG NAO Top weenie statement: “There’s no cold at the surface but it will ‘make its own cold’ and pull it down from aloft!!” “Dynamic cooling!!”

EURO/CMC/ICON vs GFS….but let’s believe the GFS because it has snow 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good for them.  With a negative NAO and AO this should be colder than the CMC and Icon. 

Right, just go with the coldest and snowiest model and say it’s correct. Its been God awful all winter long. Beyond dreadful and has a severe cold bias. 
 

 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The CMC and ICON have all rain

9 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

You're missing arctic air-most of the coast's biggest storms have an arctic outbreak ahead of them...even March 1998 had that.   Marginal cold will cut it in Jan/Feb but not March.

It’s denial and desperation at this point. They can’t let it go. Next weekend’s setup looks absolutely awful outside of interior, elevated northern New England. No cold, garbage airmass, approaching mid-March. Certain people are still chasing phantom snowstorms and cold and snow ghosts. It’s akin to someone who just lost a loved one and is in deep denial

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

MJO is in 4-5-6 so I'd expect all this to trend warmer.   NAO is just trapping PAC air so that's no good.

We’re done. Still no arctic cold anywhere to be found on our side of the hemisphere on 3/15. People still holding onto “winter isn’t over, snow and cold is coming mid-late March” is the equivalent of Kate Winslet not letting go of Leonardo DiCaprio after the Titanic had already sunk 

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@snowman19 also, I am aware that the advertised pattern fell through. it's annoying, but there were also a lot of other meteorologists that were excited at the possibilities, and rightfully so. you should find some respected mets on Twitter or even on this forum and shit on them too, while you're at it. sometimes the models just do a really bad job. hell, they couldn't even figure out the Feb 15th storm a day in advance

you have also had your fair share of complete fails (as does every other person that forecasts the weather for an extended period of time), but you don't see me ready to pounce on you for it. i also don't put words in your mouth either, but you're just here in bad faith, so i can't expect anything less

You are unbelievably arrogant and pompous. I would expect no less 

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you mean at like 144 hours out? who cares

sometimes you complain that people don't like you because you're such a "realist" but this is more grating to read than whatever Tony posted lmao

Oh you’re back again, I figured you couldn’t be far after this morning’s GFS run. You must be getting ready to hype how wonderful, great and epic mid-late March looks. Textbook KU pattern and major blocking and cold is coming right? Stand down. After all your bombastic cold and snow hype busts this winter and last winter you should take some time to work on humility 

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is better than the euro

The GFS is better huh? You mean the model that kept showing the phantom anafront snow run after run? I’m sure you remember it well because you hyped it all last weekend and kept posting the GFS runs. Yea, it’s a great model, absolutely superb. How much anafront snow did you get today? I haven’t had a chance to check yet….

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Nao and AO going negative with the PNA going positive. 

Day 10 on the op GFS good luck! Lol If that verifies I will jump into the Hudson River naked

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t say 72-73 was a good match for this winter since that was a much colder winter than this one was across North America. We are in such a different global climate state now, that winter analogs before the 15-16 super El Niño are too different. I mostly focused on the record WPAC warm pool for such a strong El Niño presenting warmer risks to the winter computer model forecasts.

My apologies, I stand corrected. My memory is going already lol It was actually @40/70 Benchmark

Well, Judah Cohen just stuck a fork in this winter/March in his new blog. And kudos to @bluewave saying that 72-73 was a very good match for this winter months ago. It looks like a very good match for March too:

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This winter will be most remembered for long range cold and snow fantasies on the weeklies, on the 11-15 day ensembles and failed SSW attempts. Looking back on it, there were red flags all over the place back in November….the east-leaning super El Niño, the ++IOD, the blazing hot WPAC SSTs, strong -PDO, cold GOA, roaring PAC jet/jet extensions, the MJO wave trains, arctic cold locked on the other side of the globe in Eurasia, the record low snow and ice cover, very high solar activity, *possible* Hunga Tonga volcanic effects on the stratosphere, ++AMO; no semblance of a “tripole” in the Atlantic SSTs, AGW (big factor). The only thing we had going for us was the -QBO, which was not anywhere near enough of a factor to override the other bad stuff. There were also proven studies from Joe D’Aleo that a -QBO/El Nino combo leads to below normal snowfall along the east coast, I-95 corridor 

Just to add, the arctic air staying locked in Eurasia ended up being one of the biggest red flags….that has been a staple in some of our worst winters of all time 

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

When the Pacific pattern/SST stays garbage, our outcome will be garbage. 72-73 was the last strong Nino with -PDO and that’s essentially what we got. We did a little better since we lucked out mid Feb. But overall torch among islands of brief cold, and well below normal snow. 

This winter will be most remembered for long range cold and snow fantasies on the weeklies, on the 11-15 day ensembles and failed SSW attempts. Looking back on it, there were red flags all over the place back in November….the east-leaning super El Niño, the ++IOD, the blazing hot WPAC SSTs, strong -PDO, cold GOA, roaring PAC jet/jet extensions, the MJO wave trains, arctic cold locked on the other side of the globe in Eurasia, the record low snow and ice cover, very high solar activity, *possible* Hunga Tonga volcanic effects on the stratosphere, ++AMO; no semblance of a “tripole” in the Atlantic SSTs, AGW (big factor). The only thing we had going for us was the -QBO, which was not anywhere near enough of a factor to override the other bad stuff. There were also proven studies from Joe D’Aleo that a -QBO/El Nino combo leads to below normal snowfall along the east coast, I-95 corridor 

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid month seems better on guidance. Let’s Morch.

The PAC ain’t changing…. +WPO/+EPO FTW. So much for that plunge into an arctic tundra with mountains of snow mid-late March some were hyping on twitter….

The PAC pattern stays God awful as far as the eye can see. ++EPO/++WPO and nothing but Pacific maritime air in Canada and the CONUS right through mid-March and beyond. Even if a -NAO/-AO develop, it won’t help, just traps PAC air underneath 

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I do like the NAO and AO going negative  .

 

The problem is that there is no cold air in Canada.

Yea because it’s flooded with PAC air and all the arctic is over in Eurasia. The blocks are just going to trap that air because the PAC stays in a garbage pattern. BIG problem. Marginal cold doesn’t cut it come mid-late March anymore. It’s time to declare this one dead. Let it go

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

What date does real winter begin in your mind?

I can’t wait for the next can kick….late March and early April for the “cold” and snow. I have no doubt that one is coming…..

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

Serious question, where is all the arctic cold going to come from since it’s all on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia? Marginal cold won’t cut it anymore come mid-late March like it does in Dec-Jan-Feb at our latitude. Once you get to 3/15 and beyond it’s game over south of New England minus some freak/very anomalous event 

The 1st 2 weeks of March look very warm and delightful on the ensembles. It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!