snowman19

The 1st 2 weeks of March look very warm and delightful on the ensembles. It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing! 

Now that we have reached the tail end, last few days of the month, the CFS for March becomes believable and it has continued to trend warmer and warmer with every run right up to today

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your reading comprehension needs work. Blocky/cool start to early spring is not the same as deep winter. 

Should have said on twitter, meant to put that in there. But since you mentioned it, it’s voodoo, how many times this winter will people fall for it? Been failing all winter

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Old man winter this season was like Michael Myers in "Halloween Ends".

The usual suspects *on twitter are still riding the voodoo SSW/weeklies deep winter comes back mid-late March like sea biscuit I see lol

I drew the 6hrly fropa positions for you. You can see the highest snow totals are closest to the front position since it’s calling that whole 6hr period as snow, but the most remaining QPF is to the east. 

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

lol - no real warm weather is in site yet............

Right, it’s not going to get warm ROTFLMFAOOO. March looks arctic cold and snowy. And the 300+ hour op GFS?! Lol!
 

Let it go. It’s over Johnny. The fat lady has sung, stick a fork in it, say goodnight and goodbye. Done. Bring down the curtain. Adios. A former winter. It’s dead Jim. In the cemetery. RIP Winter 23-24

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs brings the colder pattern back which is possible given the NAO and PNA along with the MJO.

Ensembles are useless given that they showed a big change to colder weather at this point which never verified. 

Op GFS lol It’s over dude. JB just called it quits. It’s warm as far as the eye can see

7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Gonna stop at an organic stuff nursery on Monday and grab some soil. Time to start making food 

The ensembles are a full on torch now for March

I’m sure no one is going to believe this, but the new EPS and GEFS folded on the “better” PAC and Atlantic in the long range. The GEPS never really bought into it and the weeklies kicked the can down the road to late March for the fantasy “good” look the other day. The SSW is falling by the way side too. This one is destined to be a ratter right to the bitter end….

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Killer analfront incoming.

For some reason, I don’t think that fantasy GFS anafront is going to verify. Call me crazy…..

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems to be the last of the -EPO's cold loading from last week's dive.   Can trace the air mass back...  

And it does appear to be the last as this week the transition into an entirely new paradigm gets underway.  Who's to say if it sets the table for the whole spring (we may regress mid month), but at least that first week of March, the overnight op versions looking more concerted with the ens telecon projection. 

Lawns tinting green with forsythias

The wildlife at least thinks it’s over. The birds are all out singing early in the morning now. Sounded like mid-March here today

Larry Cosgrove has finally given up in his new blog. He was going for a big cold/snowy winter in the east. Said he thinks it’s over

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/23/the-weather-pattern-is-looking-distinctly-springlike-except-if-you-live-in-the-west-or-in-canada/

18 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

After wk 2 the winter weeklies have been wretched going back to the 2019-2020 winter. Surprised we continue to see these plastered all over outlets by the same regarded mets every year.

The great March run we had last decade has definitely run it's course, been put to bed for several years so expectations are virtually non-existent at this point.

The weeklies are wretched. God awful, horrible, worst I’ve ever seen in all my years as a weather hobbyist. This fail/bust was one for the ages. If the weeklies said the sky was blue I wouldn’t believe them

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a moron he is

Guess the early March SSW is going to go down in flames….again. Doesn’t look like it’s going to downwell into the lower stratosphere and couple with the troposphere. Surprise, surprise….another hyped fail incoming. Time to declare this winter dead

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One last shot likely mid-March IMO.   A 5-7 day stretch where there's some cold around and maybe we get a marginal event like the one in mid Feb.

Marginal cold won’t cut it near the coast in mid-late March, you would need anomalous arctic air in place at that point and that’s going to be locked in Eurasia

11 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS bringing some anafront fun at like 150 hours. It really puts the "clown" in clown map. Very real solution, GFS/Pivotal.

Wow! A phantom anafront a week out on the operational GFS that’s never going to happen. Looks riveting!

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

24” here. C. Two weeks of winter and one storm over 10 inches 

After all the non stop hype from some since November, around 2 weeks total of true arctic cold in mid-January and one 10+ storm (one 8-9 inch storm for my neck of the woods)…going into March…that’s all we have to show for it….pretty sad

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

LFG! Bring it 

I think we’re done outside of some freak, anomalous event which is always a risk every year in mid-late March. Even if we assume the pattern flips at 3/15 (big assumption), at that point, at our latitude, it’s spring climo/sun angle/length of day season. Average highs in the 50’s. The Equinox is only 4 days later and all of the arctic cold is locked on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia going into March. We are very likely donzo

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific has been much more important for us than than anything happening with the stratosphere or the -NAO. Next week we’ll see our strongest -PNA trough since last spring. So it looks like a warm pattern for us from late February into early March. If a more -NAO pattern develops by mid-March, then it will come down to the Pacific again. If that -PNA trough dominates, then it will be warm like last March was with the -PNA -NAO.

 

 

Not only that, look at where all the arctic air is….in Eurasia on the complete opposite side of the pole

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao

Lol @the_other_guy Apparently a freak mesoscale, narrow band means all the February hype verified!!

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Here we go again lol

Yep. Now it’s “mid-March onwards”. How many times is this now? Just keep kicking the can down the road….

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Keep the Voodoo coming. Jobu like SSW

 

 

Here we go again. Now it’s “mid-March onwards”. Wash, rinse, repeat