snowman19

That's where the cold air was earlier this season.   I was shocked when we got anything that came close to winter this year.  For intent and purposes, looks like its over.  Can never rule out a March "storm"...

Once we get to mid-March we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day. It’s over at our latitude at that point minus some freak, anomalous event

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one gives a rat’s ass or a Goddamn what that idiot thinks

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I still believe we have a shot in March. These don't look bad at all.

You’ve been saying this since November 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's about it if that happens

Yep. And look at where all the arctic cold is…locked on the complete opposite side of the pole in Eurasia and it stays there into March. This winter is not only on life support, the Priest has given it Last Rights and the heart monitor is starting to flatline…..

The fat lady is standing at the mic and she’s warming up her vocal cords…..

Would be totally fitting for the big stalled upper low to show up south of the Maritimes again for April. 
If the snow this week is it for us so be it, at least a half decent finish in a sea of trash. 

The warmth from November through today has been staggering and it’s not done yet, it looks to continue into early March….at least. Hard to believe actually. Even for a super El Niño this is just ridiculous:

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

P3/4 are cold for March so I wouldn’t be shocked if the month flipped after a warm start 

Yea, possibly, if we believe that MJO progression is correct, but my guess is March averages warmer to much warmer than normal. Early March at least looks way above average. Past strong El Nino events had warm early-mid March’s but they did get cooler after mid-March. We’ll see

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Would be totally fitting for the big stalled upper low to show up south of the Maritimes again for April. 

If the snow this week is it for us so be it, at least a half decent finish in a sea of trash. 

Would not surprise me if the tail end of February and March torch, then a huge -NAO block shows up in April and we keep getting backdoored for 30 days

3 hours ago, Northof78 said:

Kill this, and put it out of its misery...

It’s not even on life support. Its in the cemetery 

Here comes the latest SSW non event. The stratospheric models have been about as reliable as the weeklies . The dumpster fire continues….

10 hours ago, Heisy said:

You think the SSW does anything for us in March?


.

No offense but don’t you live in Philadelphia? What exactly are you hoping to get down there in March? And all the SSW hype has been fail after fail all winter. Total voodoo 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference: March clusters based on cases with an average ONI of +1.500C or above for December-February:

The CFSv2 currently favors a warmer version of Cluster 1. The single case with a negative PDO was March 1973 (Cluster 4).

 

72-73 has actually been a decent analog. Both very strong El Niño, both strong -PDO

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's better than previous runs. More cold air.

Ok Joe Bastardi

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Will be late in the game, however still a possibility.

It’s not even remotely worth looking at the CFS for March until like 2/28. They have a known record of not having the slightest glimmer of a clue and flip flop like a fish out of water until just before the next month starts

@bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Where are you at with snowfall on the season dude? I just broke 10 inches, but could’ve easily had a bit more if not for poor luck. 

I think you’re in Rockland was it? You must’ve cleaned up in the Tuesday storm. 

I got around 8 inches

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

FWIW the GEPS had a much less hostile pattern at the end than the GEFS/EPS did so we'll see if something could still happen in mid March perhaps....I would still expect even if we have a hostile pattern 2/27 to 3/10 it could flip again

Past strong/super El Niños did get less hostile after mid-March. Early-mid March strongly favors a hostile, warmer than normal pattern though, looking back at history. Problem is that post mid-March, minus some very anomalous event, you are really fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day and it gets worse with each passing day at that point. The clock will really be ticking 

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@snowman19 ftw 

Hope you enjoyed

50 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

A bit too far east / late this run..

 

The setup next week is God awful

24 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Here comes the last minute north trend. Shocker!! @ag3 There will be WWA’s hoisted later this afternoon, probably all the way up into the NW suburbs. Good God the models have been awful with these last 2 events

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol

The next “threat” to watch become all rain for NYC…..

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

The good news is that you and others thought the same exact thing for the previous thread the needle setup and how did that one work out ? IMO Hopefully in time this setup changes for the better for snow lovers until then we continue to track

Good luck

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warm temperatures could be a big issue near the coast.

 

IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem still north

RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight