snowman19

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Over by 12z. Personally I think that’s wrong but the dry slot has been showing up more and more.

Unless other guidance shows this as a new trend, it’s hard to believe the length of this event really gets cut that short. It’s over, done, all she wrote that quickly? Definitely suspicious for now

27 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Hmmm. Wayyy off ehh? 

The simulated radar was way more impressive earlier

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I had forgotten completely about it, until I went to the supermarket. Never got out of the car. I wish people would take the time to look up the weather for themselves and stop acting like its the end of the world every time snow is mentioned. They do not do this when they call for a chance of thunderstorms in summer.....what were we supposed to get? Not much, I gather?

Honestly, since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow

So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Textbook CAD.

You can see why the icing threat is so high.

Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even the Friday system the surface low has come north again the last two main model cycles now so that coastal areas look more rainy again.  Prior to that it had been flattening for 48-72 hours and for awhile looked like all snow even for Long Island 

Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this would be a huge win for the Euro if it verifies. Remember how it showed this solution last weekend. Probably need to get to writhin 24-48 hrs to know where the most dangerous icing sets up.

This could be quite the freezing rain and sleet event. Every model has the midlevels torching. Usually the midlevel warm punch always verifies warmer as you close in on the storm. The low level jet is going to be screaming in from the south

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

How can you say so definitively when reliable models are showing all or at least mostly snow just north of the coast?  Everything from big snowstorm to big rainstorm is still on the table at this juncture.

He’s right. If it happens the way the Euro just showed it is definitely not staying snow. There will be massive midlevel warming in such a setup

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

 

 

 

It’s showing close to a record ice storm north and west of the city

It would appear the FV3 is about to spit out a completely different solution than the “old” GFS. It may very well be Thursday before a general model consensus like some have been saying

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above the surface.

 

 

Exactly. Shallow cold at the surface doesn’t mean snow here at all. The midlevel lows are tracking way west of the area. All colder at the surface will mean is sleet (may even be too warm aloft for that) and freezing rain. The midlevels are going to be absolutely torching in a setup like the Euro/GFS/CMC are showing. There may be very minimal snow here and instead ice may be the real story

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS is beyond amped. 

It sure is, going to be way west. In fact, it may actually show it starting as rain

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Yep. 50 degrees even up to where I am

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Looks nothing the UKMET. EURO has a 992 LP in Pittsburgh

It’s another very bad run, even for the NW suburbs in this forum. It’s a mess all the way up into central New England. Basically no change from 0z here

42 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Wondering if snow cover laid down by the Friday storm could force a track further South than what models might suggest. 

It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The SLP track is just slightly north of due east from 120 to 168, and stays south of NYC. That should keep this mostly frozen.

The mid levels are torching. It’s not staying frozen precip falling with that setup

The lack of a -NAO block is going to be a big problem I think. You are also lacking a very strong -AO and -EPO which could have compensated for not having a -NAO. While I don’t think the weekend is a full on cutter into the Great Lakes, I can easily see an inside/inland runner for sure. I’m not buying the argument that there is going to be secondary coastal redevelopment with no blocking in the Atlantic. You will also be dealing with a bit of a SE Ridge pop next weekend

Just now, Brian5671 said:

there's not blocking....that's why I don't get JB's redevelopment scenario....

It’s kind of hard to have secondary redevelopment without North Atlantic blocking (-NAO) ahead of the primary parent low

The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I won’t get concerned until I see the Euro hold that solution within it’s good range starting at 120 hrs out. It’s curently the Euro vs GFS,UKMET, CMC, and ICON. 

Not even the normally colder Para GFS is showing anything like the Euro. For now, op Euro vs the world. EPS should be interesting 

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I LOL Gfs is now suppressing the first wave into the MA.  You can’t make this stuff  up

 

 

It seems like there’s some winters that just want to snow, it snows in unfavorable setups, just comes out of nowhere, then there’s the ones that just find any excuse not to snow....

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That must be the ice storm I remember with heavy freezing rain and a temp of 3°.

That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm

33 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I believe that ice storm in 1994 hammered us at the Jersey Shore as well and was the same day as the California earthquake.  We may have been off for school for MLK day. That was the most ice I've ever seen at the shore.  It was even worse a few miles northwest of Belmar.  

The 93-94 winter had a massive freezing rain storm in the metro with temps in the single digits, further upstate had freezing rain with temps below zero

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I don't think we'll see freezing rain with single digits temperatures. 

Why exactly wouldn’t you see freezing rain with single digit temps? As in you don’t think that’s physically possible or what?

Just now, Snow88 said:

If you check out other forums , they arent worried about the mjo. 

Ssw might trumph the mjo.

The problem would be if it gains amplitude in phases 4&5. Then we will have issues at the end of the month