snowman19

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter doesnt ended 3/1

Met winter ends on 3/1, which is what I said, extend it to the Equinox and you get 19 more days after (3/19)....

13 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video

 

 

Why doesn’t he just throw in the towel right now instead of waiting until February like he wants to do? Once we’re into February, you have less than a month left of met winter (3/1). At that point it’s not even really a prediction anymore 

It looks like the rest of this month and the first 14 days of February (at the very least) are toast. I should have stuck with my initial guess of 2/15 or beyond for a true change. Now, I’m honestly thinking more like late February, if it ever even happens in February. You don’t just snap out of a vortex over Alaska look overnight. The one thing I’m sure about is come early to mid March a massive -NAO block will develop and last right through the end of April. It never fails.....

The UKMET wants nothing to do with snow in the metro area for the weekend either, just like the ICON, GFS, CMC

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That would not change the fact that we have a onshore flow with a bad airmass. This is rain regardless for the coast. Northern Pa and Upstate ny have the best shot.

Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm 

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.

 

 

 

Bad fail for the GFS and CMC. The pattern looks exceedingly ugly going into early February, after next weekend looks to start the real ugliness, (post 1/26) not that this week looks good either....

It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around  

2 inches up by me. Finished up the way it always was for days now.....a 1-3 inch event 

Just now, Snow88 said:

Gfs?

I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though

Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

51 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season

 

week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event

 

Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope 

 

Agree with you here. This was always a 1-3 inch event, at best, as you can see the models are correcting warmer with less snow as we get closer, theme of this winter so far, expect this correction to continue through tomorrow. Would not surprise me one bit if NYC sees less than an inch and the N & W suburbs see 1-2 inches at best before a changeover. This setup was very, very marginal from day one

Nothing has changed whatsoever, it’s still 1-3 inches at best, 1” or less near the city: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011518&fh=84

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February 

Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hate to say it but this looks like more sleet than snow in places that stay cold at the surface. I expect the coast to quickly changeover after 1-3 hours of snow to start.

This is a quick snow/sleet to start then over to all rain rather quickly. IMO most areas in the metro see less than an inch even N & W

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.  And it was not even a true arctic airmass.  Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble.  By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds

This is clearly headed to a mostly all rain event even N and W of the city, if these trends continue it will be less than an inch of snow to all rain Saturday even N and W 

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The south winds are a big problem.  That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light.  In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.   

This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The airmass before the storm is really cold

It’s cold but it’s not unmodified arctic, the boundary layer is going to warm rather quickly when the winds flip. This is starting to look like a 1-3 event for the metro area

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

As it stands it would be foolish to dismiss the frozen threat. Models clearly show a cold surface/mid levels until the end. 

Very strong initial high with very low dews ahead of this thing with high trending stronger due to Thursdays system trending stronger and acting like a transient 50/50 low. 

This doesn't guarantee anything and a lot could change but that's what I'm seeing right now. Some semblance of last year's November storm.

This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018

Just now, Snow88 said:

What are your thoughts?

All rain ?

Not all rain but it is going to turn to rain across the entire metro area after the initial snow/sleet push. Every model has this going to all rain. Once again, we are posting grossly overdone 10:1 ratio snowmaps that count sleet and freezing rain as snow. Those pretty maps aren’t going to verify. When you have a primary parent low over Lake Ontario, you get a strong mid-level warm push, which models always underestimate until the last minute, we’ve seen this over and over again

4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Wow, basically a complete snowstorm for the entire region on the GFS with VERY COLD air in place. Not even sure much mix would enter the picture per that run. 

It turns to rain on the GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011312&fh=138

3 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below:

By Saturday morning, the high sets up in a prime position across
Quebec. An upper-level trough and surface low forms across the
Plains and heads eastward. The current track of the surface low is
across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday before the energy transfers
to a coastal low late Saturday into Sunday. Cold and very dry air
ahead of this system raises confidence that wet-bulb effects would
lead to a nearly all snow event. It is possible that warm air aloft
brings a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain and/or rain from
near the Capital Region south; however, confidence on this is low.
While this is several days out, good ensemble agreement led to
raising the PoPs to likely. A plowable snow is possible.

The area NWS Albany covers is not part of this subforum

Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: 

Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then
return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic
high pressure builds toward the region.

Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain.
For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long
a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain
Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold
air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there
is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive.
Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF
warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the
probabilities at chance.

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

47 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What?

Every model shows a front end. Euro has been way too amped all winter. 

Next weekend’s setup sucks south of New England still, don’t worry, the NYC metro area will get their chance post 1/20, be patient