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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 Here’s the CFS extremely well predicted secondary peak in January. This La Niña is far from dying...
  2. snowman19
    The GFS/GEFS cold bias has gotten so bad, it has basically become an irrelevant model, this is just insane:
  3. snowman19
    I agree with that. Week 2 is not a good look. The trough needs to pull back off the west coast.Please stop
  4. snowman19
    Stop with what the New England forum said. We are not New England. South of New England you will have problems with that look. You have a full latitude trough dumped in the west
  5. snowman19
    So much for the collapsed Niña you predicted lol
  6. snowman19
    You are going to get cutters, enjoy. That is a bad look south of New England
  7. snowman19
    Yeah, a full latitude -PNA trough dumped into the west is not going to work....
  8. snowman19
    The only thing stopping an all out torch is the -NAO. That look 1/21 and beyond (Aleutian ridge, -PNA, trough dumped into the west) would let the SE ridge go wild, the only thing fighting it is the -NAO, you lose that and we are screwed big time
  9. snowman19
    100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues
  10. snowman19
    With a trough dumped into the west with the RNA you are going to get cutters. Better hope the -NAO doesn’t go away
  11. snowman19
    The models have moved the RNA pattern up by a lot. They originally had it for early February, now they have it in place by 1/21
  12. snowman19
    It moved up by quite a bit. We go RNA, trough dumped into the west by 1/21 now
  13. snowman19
    What are your thoughts on the 1/16 - 1/19 period? IMO, I’m thoroughly unimpressed, I doubt we see anything more than FROPA. The setup stinks, the airmass stinks, not sure what some like about it honestly. I think we are in for a mostly boring 9 days coming up
  14. snowman19
    I think the real wild card will be March. Niña March’s can go either way, some turn cold, some stay warm. February tends to be the torch month in a Niña due to the tropical forcing. Plus you have the very short wavelengths in March, which lead to some crazy outcomes at times
  15. snowman19
    Agreed. The -PNA/Aleutian ridge pattern starts emerging on 1/22 and is fully in place come 1/25, it’s definitely in the believable range now and sped up by over a week
  16. snowman19
    The GEFS has now joined the EPS and the GEPS in showing a big Aleutian ridge, -PNA/RNA by 1/25. Unanimous agreement. It would appear that the long awaited canonical La Niña response is on the way
  17. snowman19
    The -PMM is rapidly strengthening right now. This should lead to the weakening of the STJ and a more Niña like response in the atmosphere. Also, the PDO is getting more deeply negative
  18. snowman19
    The -EPO bias has been very severe for years now with all models, in particular the GEFS. The GEFS will insist on -EPO blocking run after run and won’t let it go until the last second, meanwhile the EPS and GEPS already figured out it wasn’t happening 10 runs earlier and dropped it. It’s been the GEFS’s MO for several winters in a row now, they’ve all been pretty horrible with that bias
  19. snowman19
    2014 had a severely negative EPO and a severely positive PDO, neither of which we are going to have. It also did not have a solidly moderate La Niña like we have now. It also featured an extremely positive NAO and AO
  20. snowman19
    Yep, it’s actually moving up the Niña pattern flip earlier instead of keeping it way out in the long range and not moving it forward in time. Now, it wants to pump an Aleutian ridge and dump a full latitude trough into the west (-PNA/RNA) by 1/24. The advertised late month pattern flip to canonical La Niña seems like it’s going to be real
  21. snowman19
    As expected, the -EPO has disappeared and the +PNA is getting weaker and weaker as we move forward in time, the raging PAC jet keeps crashing into any +PNA ridge that tries to develop and knocks it right back down. I guess the PAC side is just not going to cooperate through 1/19
  22. snowman19
    The GEPS looks just as bleak as the other 2 models right through 1/19
  23. snowman19
    Another modeled -EPO fail incoming. The beat goes on....hit the repeat button
  24. snowman19
    It’s not a wishcast. It’s actually happening. In fact it’s now a west-based La Niña. The coldest anomalies are in region 4, and region 4 continues to drop. There is no rapid weakening, the trade winds are screaming, we’re in the midst of a huge burst and the SOI is positive as hell. That rapid weakening forecast is going to be dead wrong, the CFS nailed this
  25. snowman19
    More importantly, the Niña is not rapidly weakening at all like some were saying the Euro showed. In fact, region 4 is still dropping. The Euro is going to be wrong.
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