snowman19

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now, Average SOI for last 90 days -10.61 we have this… No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing. 2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies 3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 4. WWBs

He comes across as a dick for sure but he does have a point, this is a massive DWKW and very strong ongoing WWB that is going to result in very substantial warming, strengthening and further coupling of this El Niño event over the next month+

@Bluewave

New downwelling kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. And we have Nino/++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño, and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

I never bought into the SAI after the epic failures over the years TBH I consider it as reliable as arctic sea ice but some do see the value. I’m indifferent

He said nothing about El Niño coupling lol he said only his SAI is acting like a Niña. He flat out admits that he knows little about the intricacies of El Niño. And the Nino has coupled and is strengthening. Not rehashing my post from 2 days ago again

Once the flux from TC Tej wears off the +IOD is going to strengthen again. I firmly believe we top 2019 and 1994 and make a run at topping 1997 too @so_whats_happening @GaWx

IMO it’s a NDJ peak and I still say it’s +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly average. I think the big warming push is just about to start

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too

Very pronounced low frequency (El Nino) forcing and coupling present:

Temporary flux from Typhoon Tej. It caused cooling further west in the IO. Extremely unlikely that it peaked and further strengthening will start again once the Typhoon effects wear off. A very well coupled +IOD system is already in place

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

The subsurface is rewarming from the DWKW in progress. It’s going to warm even more and people are going to be eating crow when this one goes super. Per my last post: “New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….”

God speed. IMO it is

I would not be for several reasons: New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

Must be those ever elusive, fake WWBs and +AAM spikes again. We’re just dreaming it, it’s not really happening, figments of our imaginations….. @brooklynwx99 100%. The composite you posted fits El Niño (+ENSO), November, with +AAM and MJO Phase 8 perfectly. Sorry, folks, that’s not a La Niña like response at all

Doesn’t match up at all with this. Not one value above +0 right through March on any model on that chart. Also, region 1+2 is warming again, up to +2.6C. Regardless of what happens in 3.4 this one is not becoming a Modoki https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

Lol the WWB just got going. Its not going to have a snap your fingers instant effect

This is a very strong ongoing WWB; spawning TC’s. Almost certain to form a substantial DWKW and result in very impressive ENSO warming in November. The -20’s SOI run continues….

Besides the -QBO, PDO and the fact that there was an El Nino, I never saw ‘09 as a match. This El Nino is not only stronger, it developed as a pure east-based/EP event. ‘09 was a classic, textbook Modoki, start to finish. It was also -IOD, which affects MJO progression, don’t remember what the solar was but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a solar max year. The AMO wasn’t anywhere near as positive, you had an Atlantic tripole, you didn’t have record amounts of volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere either, AGW wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced as it is now, the STJ is already very strong now, the STJ response is different when there’s a Modoki, you had well above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October, arctic sea ice was higher, (not that those matter to me, but still)…..