snowman19

The most detailed winter outlook I’ve ever seen. It didn’t work out like you thought but it also didn’t for some big name pros like HM, DT and Larry Cosgrove. HM completely missed the late Dec and Jan/Feb torch a rama, he thought the early-mid Dec blocking was going to lock in. Larry Cosgrove was expecting a 95-96 type of winter from Dec-Mar, a very bad bust for him and he kept saying it was coming right to the bitter end. DT thought it was going to be a big winter initially then he relented in Jan. I know I enjoyed reading through your forecast even though we disagree alot

Paul Roundy still gung ho about this being a very strong El Niño

So far, this Nino event is concentrated in regions 3 and 1+2. Back in the day, they used to use region 3 instead of 3.4 to officially determine Nino strength https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

You don’t ever see this….NOAA giving 94% odds of a very significant El Niño event this fall and early winter….

Not so sure the atmosphere isn’t responding….the SOI is dropping like a rock

Agree that this is an extremely east-based/eastern pacific Nino event, however, I can see it spreading and migrating west from 1+2 and 3 into 3.4 as some of the old time ones have done in the past. Granted there’s definitely some different background states this year as you mentioned

The south is cooler in strong/super Nino events simply because the STJ is juiced and roaring across that area all winter, bringing non stop cloud cover and precip

This event is forming like the old time strong/super El Niños prior to the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 events. The “old” events would start and get strong in regions 1+2 and 3, then migrate west from there into region 3.4. The 72-73 and prior major east-based El Niño events did this

The models keep getting warmer and warmer, caving towards the BOM, also, 3.4 just crossed the 0.5C threshold

It’s funny. You do exactly what you accuse me of. I have yet to see you ever predict anything but a cold and snowy winter and I’ve been on these forums for years. I’m sure if there’s an east-based super El Niño in place this fall you will find some excuse to still go cold and snowy. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, you will say the forcing is really central based or some other nit picked excuse to go snowy.

I guess you consider DT a know nothing peon….

Yea….ooook….ummmmm…..sure……

The flip to +PDO seems to be starting and the extreme warmth in region 1+2 is migrating west into region 3….

It’s going to be truly frightening when we see a strong to super east-based Nino in full force this fall . I’m actually looking forward to experiencing one, I was too young for 97-98

This background state makes me think that once the WWB hits this Nino is really going to go into overdrive and take off, our background state now is way warmer than 1997 and 1982 and even 2015

Thanks for your very insightful, knowledgeable and riveting contributions to serious discussions as always. I would expect no less

I don’t even consider using analogs from the 1800’s. Our climate background is nothing like it was back then, night and day with the AGW (much warmer) climate of today. So far, as you pointed out in your other post, this one is developing as a textbook Eastern Pacific/east-based El Niño

I would expect it to stay that way (east-based and strong to possibly super) due to Bjerknes feedback. Once that feedback loop gets established, the SST warmth is self-sustaining and even magnifies. It has been shown that Bjerknes feedback is stronger and more sustainable in the eastern ENSO regions. This event has developed as a classic Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and there’s no reason to doubt it stays that way. See this study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

Another new model run showing an east-based strong event…