snowman19

It looks both way briefer and much weaker in intensity than what was being forecasted last week at this time. Then it looks like westerlies take over again thereafter and the next round of warming should start. Also, looks like a rather healthy downwelling Kelvin wave is going to take shape later on this month and that should boost the subsurface anomalies especially under regions 3 and 1+2

If it goes high-end strong/“low-end” super it’s most likely going to be a torch winter with a higher than normal chance of a KU bomb up the coast with the juiced STJ if you get really lucky and thread the needle an arctic cold shot, a la 1983/2016. This turning into a Modoki is not an option IMO

While I too think +2.7C is most likely overdone, I can see a peak of something in the neighborhood of +1.9C - +2.3C in late fall. This one is starting to look like it’s going to be the real deal

The ECMWF is getting as aggressive as the POAMA with the El Niño now. A high-end strong event is becoming increasingly likely come fall IMO

New Euro seasonal showing a very strong El Niño developing

I guess the talk of this event developing in the Eastern Pacific then expanding west like the pre-1980 El Niños has some good merit

The subsurface below regions 3 and 1+2 is blazing and is going to warm even more with the new downwelling Kelvin wave. Warmest SSTs there too, so still a very east-based event. The POAMA is sticking to its guns, while it may be overdone some, what it’s showing is definitely possible and the CFS forecast is easily attainable

IMO, all this is making a high-end strong peak (at minimum) come late fall/early winter look more and more realistic and within reach

@Gawx Nino 3.4 still warming, 1+2 back up over +2

I never said super was guaranteed, not once. I do however feel that strong/high-end strong is a very good possibly and I still do. Joe Bastardi has less than zero credibility. None. Literally every single time there’s an El Niño he says it’s going to become a Modoki and uses 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. Wash, rinse, repeat. Even back in 2015, he used 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs (even mentioned 76-77 as a possible analog at one point that fall) and said it was going to be a “west-based” super El Niño, whatever the hell that means, after months of denying that it was even going to become super and saying it was falling apart because it didn’t fit his cold and snowy winter on the east coast narrative. He looked like a total fool that winter, as per usual for him

After 3 years in a row of La Niña, I would expect a decent atmospheric lag before a classic canonical El Niño/Bjerknes feedback forced pattern gets established. I don’t think we should expect a flip of a coin, instant change

2002 was a textbook Modoki, nothing at all like how this event is developing, not even close, in fact the El Ninos since 1980 have not developed like this, as Paul Roundy pointed out multiple times. The only one right now saying 02-03 is an “analog” is Joe Bastardi, who is wishcasting, as usual. He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 09-10 and 76-77. No surprise coming from that utter hack

More of what Paul Roundy alluded to, this Nino is well ahead of other major El Niño years in region 1+2