snowman19

How do you or anyone else for that matter know exactly what the WPAC is going to look come December and thereafter? Besides the Nino, the developing +IOD is also going to alter the WPAC SSTs and forcing. To say that if this Nino becomes super (looks very likely now) that it’s definitely not going to have the same bite or behave as other past super El Niños this winter is disingenuous at best. Unless some people are psychic and clairvoyant and know exactly what is going to happen 4, 5, 6, 7 months from now. It’s the beginning of August and things can and will change, possibly dramatically

It’s actually notably warmer than the last run, has a solid super peak (looks around +2.3C) in December

The RONI will be an excuse by some people on the east coast to predict a very cold and very snowy winter even if this El Nino goes super (over +2.0C) in late fall/beginning of winter. “Don’t worry that the Nino is peaking at +2.2C, it means nothing. The RONI is lower and weaker, it’s only showing a strong El Niño so it will not behave anything at all like a super Nino, it’s going to behave like a strong to high-end moderate Nino. The RONI is way more important, just look at that, don’t let that +2.2C super peak fool you”

As east-based as they come…..

Back in 97-98 there was actually a secondary area of low frequency forcing in region 1+2 during the winter. Whether or not we see dual areas of forcing this winter remains to be seen but a definite possibility

The +IOD has just started to develop…once that really gets going in the next month it’s going to alter the forcing and SST configuration in the WPAC

People aren’t going to be asking where the Nino atmospheric response is very soon:

Go crawl back under your rock you clueless, half-wit troll. You have no idea what you’re even talking about. Useless member

This El Niño isn’t going to go over +2.0C and not be a real prominent driver IMO. There is an atmospheric lag right now because we are just getting out of a semipermanent 4 year in a row La Niña state. We aren’t just going to flip a switch. I think by November/December, there will be no question whatsoever that El Niño is going to be a very major factor this coming winter

All the real major subsurface warmth is under 1+2, 3 and the eastern part of 3.4

Let’s see where the forcing is come November

Obviously it can change between now and December, but as of today, this is a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” El Niño and it has been right from the start

The warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 is self-sustaining now. There’s a positive feedback (Bjerknes) loop in those regions now, it just keeps getting reinforced. It’s a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” Nino

The lag has to kick in. We just had basically 4 years of a La Niña state

Anything is possible. Let’s see where the main tropical convective forcing/Nino standing wave is located come November when the different feedbacks kick in

If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air

Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

What does the PAC side look like?

The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:

Very believable that we are in a strong El Niño by 9/1 now. At this point strong is inevitable and IMO so is super. The question is how “super” does it go by December? IMO there is a limit….definitely weaker than 15-16 and 97-98 but still super in the end none the less…..