snowman19

@bluewave @donsutherland1 I know @Rjay and others don’t like BAMWX and I can understand why at times, but they have a point here. Yet another modeled “cold” period turning way warmer as we move closer in time. Now, 1/18-1/31 doesn’t look so cold and snowy anymore. GEFS and EPS doing an about face yet again. The beat goes on....

Exactly. That setup might work in March with the shorter wavelengths, but as far as that look (deep, full latitude trough on the west coast instead of off the west coast) producing a big snowstorm next week, along with the northern stream still screaming across the CONUS....color me skeptical

If there’s a deep, full latitude trough on the west coast instead of off the west coast for this storm, people aren’t going to like the results here as far as snow, even with the blocking. Plus you still have a raging fast northern stream at that point....

Saw the CMC. If the Para GFS and Euro show something similar I’ll get interested. I completely disregard anything the regular GFS shows. It’s literally the worst model there is. The ICON is better

If only it wasn’t the GFS showing it lol

^The other thing we haven’t been able to do in several years is sustain a -EPO

Looks like nothing but screaming fast zonal flow right through 1/31 on all models. -PNA/RNA, nothing to slow it down and turn it meridional. Everything gets shredded and suppressed

People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here

Keep listening to your boy Eric Webb. The hype king. First it was going to be the most epic cold and snowy December ever, then the most epic cold and snowy January ever....he’s the new JB. Busts just as bad as him too. But not to worry....Henry Margusity says the next ice age coupled with 95-96 snowfall is still coming

Yet another round of total nothing burger runs on all global models through 1/25 for the metro area. Literally less than 2 inches of snow, total, over the next 10 days even using the 10:1 ratio snow maps

Yea, there may be a small, transient window at the end of the month. Beyond that, going into February, we will be riding a line very close to a full on torch pattern as the main tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent, if we lose the -NAO/-AO and they both look to be rising in the final days of this month, it’s hello SE Ridge, torch city

Question is, is the +PNA real or just another mirage out in the long range? I think it is going to be extremely difficult if not impossible to sustain any +PNA from here on out. Why? La Niña. The northern branch polar jet is absolutely screaming and will continue to be. We have a 200 kt jet roaring across the CONUS next week, that jet is going nowhere. If any +PNA tries to pop up, the PAC jet is going to crash into it and knock it right back down as fast it went up. The northern branch is just going to become even more dominant, we are still in the midst of a moderate La Niña, which has actually become a west-based/Modoki (coldest anomalies in regions 4 and 3.4) event and we are going into a classic -PMM which is dramatically weakening the STJ/southern branch

EPS is a New England snow event for that one. Has less snow for us than the operational, has a stronger primary parent low cutting into the Great Lakes

We have ripping fast flow in the northern branch polar jet (typical La Niña). Everything is getting suppressed well south and put through the meat grinder with the fast flow in between the strong 50/50 vortex, which is trapped underneath the NAO block, and the SE Ridge trying to poke up. The shortwaves can’t amp

God speed

All the overnight 0Z model runs were weak sauce, nothing burgers through Day 10 (240 hours). GFS, Para-GFS, CMC, Euro, all less than 3 inches of snow total for the metro area even using the liberal 10:1 ratio snow maps. ICON offered nothing at all through the end of its run (180 hours)

We are going into a -PMM. That is going to dramatically weaken the STJ from here on out

How’s the collapse you predicted going?

Haha Niño 3.4 and 4 are dropping. Not weakening. Dropping SST = not weakening. Solid Moderate La Niña. In fact, it’s now a Modoki La Niña

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Here’s the CFS extremely well predicted secondary peak in January. This La Niña is far from dying...

The GFS/GEFS cold bias has gotten so bad, it has basically become an irrelevant model, this is just insane:

I agree with that. Week 2 is not a good look. The trough needs to pull back off the west coast.Please stop

Stop with what the New England forum said. We are not New England. South of New England you will have problems with that look. You have a full latitude trough dumped in the west

So much for the collapsed Niña you predicted lol