snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Honestly, I think HM is right. The 1925 El Niño is the closest match to this year. It’s actually very close, I would say it’s the best match https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml
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Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago:
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Looks like some big warming coming up in regions 1+2 and 3, where is subsurface is already incredibly warm. The WWB and DWKW already starting to do their dirty work there. I think 1+2 officially goes over +3.0C very shortly and it should start expanding into region 3. The very east-based nature of this El Niño continues
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Vapid. You must have some real serious reading comprehension problems. Facebook? Lol Who’s posting facebook? Wow. No clue. And I’ll take HM’s (Anthony Masiello) analysis any day over yours. [emoji4]
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“By the way, every event is unique. We have been on step with 97-98 in terms of weekly 3.4 numbers. But other big events like 82-83 took until Aug-Sep to really get going. There's no time constraints here to go super. If the right coupling happens, it doesn't matter when...” - HM
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HM has said he’s open to and can see it possibly getting stronger than that and hasn’t made that preliminary +1.6C - +1.8C guess his official forecast yet. I still think this thing really takes off in a big way in the next several months and eclipses +2.0C. All we can do is wait, watch and see
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Here comes El Niño…..
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Kind of like last year when the CFS was showing the La Niña totally collapsing and going warm neutral/borderline weak El Niño at one point….yea….that worked out superbly. The CFS is a wretchedly awful model.
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I have to look into how that year started, it may have had an east lean at first but no it didn’t definitely end up that way. I doubt it started as east-based as this one
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IMO, June definitely finishes at least +0.9C, possibly +1.0C…. but we’ll see
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A non met just posted on Twitter that the official weekly update for region 3.4 is indeed +1.0C. Trying to get confirmation though, I don’t like posting tweets from non mets unless it is confirmed info. If that’s correct, June will finish warmer than the POAMA initialized at in last week’s update and we will also be warmer than 1997 was at this point in time….
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Interestingly, the CDAS warmed today
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Looks like the warming is continuing….we may actually officially hit +1.0C in region 3.4 by 6/30
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+7C subsurface anomalies showing up now in regions 1+2 and 3: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif
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The subsurface below regions 1+2 and 3 is an inferno now and still warming. As you mentioned, the +7C subsurface anomalies showing up on the TAO are just staggering. Now, it looks like a good bet that TC’s are going to start forming, which promotes WWBs behind them, only serving to enhance Nino development/Bjerknes feedback even further with DWKWs. We are going to see the Eastern Pacific regions heat up even more in the very near future, that should expand west into region 3.4 as well
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While +2 and over will most likely be a torch winter overall, the chances for a KU bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016) will be greatly increased because of the raging STJ on roids that will be present. Just need a very well timed, good luck arctic cold shot. Thread the needle
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Good write up. Just my opinion, I think we see a late November/December peak and I think it peaks a little higher than you, probably in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C. The POAMA is obviously overdone, but I can definitely see it peaking above +2. And the Modoki wishcasting fantasies of the usual suspects are lol worthy
