snowman19

NAM caved to the RGEM

The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday. The 3K NAM barely has anything at all in Rockland, nothing south of there

The Euro must be running late

The 3K NAM has less than an inch for Rockland, nothing south of there. Ditto for the Ukie. This one is probably DOA. We may start as rain tomorrow.

I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support

ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now

The RGEM has no front end at all now. Even up in Rockland County. It has it starting as rain. You can’t make this winter up

Yea, I was looking at the composites last night. If the vortex moves over AK mid-late February, the EPO floodgates open wide and it’s game over winter 22-23

It might propagate out into the Pacific in early March? I don’t know, I’m starting to think March isn’t going to be all that good. If the SPV restrengthens mid-late February, I think it’s over

Agree with you. If we don’t score in the first week of February, we are probably done until March, maybe. Not having the SSW may have screwed March. I think the pattern goes to hell after 2/7

I’m simply stating what has been going on the last 3 months

Euro with the cut back for Wednesday. It just doesn’t want to snow here this winter

Let’s see what it looks like at 0z tomorrow

Ukie…total whiff https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

And the inevitable back off from the GFS and ICON at 18z, seems to be another win for the RGEM/CMC suite incoming

Yep, it looks like brief, non accumulating snow/sleet then right over to rain

This has I-84 north event written all over it

36 and still light white rain in Sloatsburg. Hasn’t even accumulated on grassy surfaces or cars. Should be ending soon

Yep, had it not been for that, March would have not been anything at all like it was

All I know is, we have been hearing about great patterns that are going to produce a lot of snow and cold here for 3 months now. The hype started in mid-November, some even hyping “historic” patterns, here we sit less than 8 days away from the beginning of February with absolutely nothing whatsoever to show for it. At some point this winter has to put up or shut up. We have been kicking the can down the road and moving the goal posts forward in time for too long now. To expect some miracle pattern to just suddenly develop in February is unrealistic IMO. The clock is ticking, in 8 days, just 1 month left of met winter

It’s always cold, snowy and a great pattern at 240+ hours. Been a reoccurring theme since the middle of November

Yep an honestly pathetic performance from all 3 models. Win for the RGEM/CMC

So was the GFS