snowman19

Say goodnight and goodbye. It’s over Johnny. Done. Finished. Adios. History. Stick a fork in it. The fat lady has sung. It’s Dead Jim! Bring down the curtain. The ship has sailed. Give it up. Peace out. See you in 9 months. Let it go. A former winter…..

The NYC metro area will have its chance again…..9 months from now…..

I don’t like to use the “we’re due” argument but it’s been 25 years since we’ve had a true east-based El Niño event. Eventually it’s going to happen again, is this the year it happens? Who knows, but as of right now, that’s how it’s developing. Anyone’s guess where it goes from here. The east-based events in the past have occurred more often during -PDO regimes like the have now

I doubt super right now too. If it were to go super….easiest winter forecast ever. Predict a torch and hope you get a well timed 15-16 or 82-83 bomb up the coast

For whatever reason, the GFS loves to show fantasy record/historic snow bombs in mid-late March and April that are gone in a run or 2

Dropped to 21 in Sloatsburg, this is probably it until December

Good luck with that!

It’s really astonishing that we have gone over 25 years without an east-based El Niño

It’s actually rivaling 97-98. This is very clearly an east-based El Niño developing right now, something we haven’t seen in over 20 years (97-98), pretty much every event since then has been a Modoki. Region 1+2 is on fire and region 3 is warming at an extremely rapid pace. Does this continue into the summer? Who knows but this is quite the event taking shape as of now

And a healthy +IOD is developing. Region 1+2 is on fire right now and region 3 is also warming extremely rapidly. If this continues into the summer (big If) I think there may be a shot at a strong/super El Niño, but way, way too early

I don’t see it either. Who knows how ENSO will look 9 months from now, whether it will be east-based or not. The striking thing is that it’s been decades (97-98) since we have seen an El Niño develop like this. Pretty much all the Nino events since then have been Modoki’s. Does this continue? Who knows but so far this is way out of the norm for the last 20 years. This may be -PDO regime related:

I’m stating fact you vapid little airhead. This event is very clearly developing as east-based, does it stay that way who knows? But right now, it is definitely not a Modoki event taking shape. Don’t believe me? Get go on twitter and argue it out with HM and Paul Roundy, who both say this is developing as an east-based El Niño. Sorry, but that’s reality

The peepers were out here last night. Definite sign that spring has arrived

You live in Philadelphia right? You have a less than zero % chance to see a snowstorm on the 28th

The fact that he’s doubled down is really mind blowing, makes you wonder about his mental state

Paul Roundy thinks this may be a strong to very strong El Niño and this doesn’t like a Modoki event either. It looks like an east-based El Niño is taking shape, something we haven’t seen in many years, although, more typical during -PDO regimes

He’s going down with the ship this year. Still hyping cold and snow for the east coast through 4/15. That guy has totally lost his mind, delusional, he really needs to retire. Crash and burn. The dude is Casey Jones now

The thing that helped 15-16 was the fact that even though it was a super El Niño, it wasn’t severely east-based like 97-98. The 97-98 Nino actually had a secondary area of forcing in ENSO 1+2 where the SSTs were on fire and it displaced the Aleutian low way east over AK (++EPO). The EPO floodgates were wide open and there was nothing but Pacific maritime air and no cold/arctic to be had in Canada or the CONUS. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-AO but the PAC side was so horrific it completely overwhelmed and it didn’t matter

It’s been bad since 2/22. I’ve had 2 plowable storms since then (3/12/22 and 2/27-28/23). Record stretch of basically snowless up here

@donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble…..

Absolutely horrible performance from the Euro/EPS, HRRR, Ukie, ICON and NAM. NAM was beyond horrible. The RGEM/CMC totally schooled them and so did the GFS

Huge bust-a-rama for them, even NWS Boston had a foot plus. I only saw 2” up here in Sloatsburg, grass and car tops only, NWS Upton was calling for 4-6 at one point

December

No kidding. I have under an inch on the grass so far, smh

Sloatsburg dropped to 32F the last hour and nothing at all on the roads with the light snow falling. The mid-March sun angle means business, it will have to snow way harder than this to get anything on the pavement and sidewalks today, just grassy accumulations and cat tops