snowman19
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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
snowman19 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Before my time, but I still really love 80’s music. The period from 1980-1990 had the best songs ever made IMO -
Probably related to the big -PDO/-PMM changes
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Please, celebrate me home,Give me a number,Please, celebrate me homePlay me one more song,That I'll always remember,And I can recall,Whenever I find myself too all alone,I can sing me home. Please celebrate me home
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We have also gone -PMM
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A strong -PDO for sure, it’s been at least 10 years since we’ve seen one. There aren’t too many good analogs for this upcoming winter….2nd year “Central Pacific”/central-based La Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, strong -PDO, -PMM
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Lmfaooo
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Lol I honestly like extreme weather, cold, hot, wet, snowy, that aside, IMO 95-96, and 10-11 were great winters in large part because they were 1st year Niñas that came off Niños the previous winter. 95-96 also had the unusual strong +PDO/+PMM combo on the Pacific side which lead to the juiced STJ, along with the very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, 10-11 was actually a very solid Niña, +QBO with -PDO and it turned into a blockbuster winter due to the severe -NAM/-AO, -NAO, west-based blocking over the top
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It wasn’t a shot on him, just saying that without fail when there is a Niña, either 95-96, or 10-11, or both always seem to become someone’s an analog/s
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The CFS loves doing that. It will eventually come back to reality
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Extremely unlikely it goes strong
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I don’t think it’s possible to have a La Niña without people using 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 as analogs. Just like it’s not possible to have an El Niño without 2002-2003, 1976-1977 and 2009-2010 getting used as analogs
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Region 4 has dropped pretty sharply to -0.6C , but the coldest anomalies are definitely not focused there
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Region 4 had been strongly biased warm for over 10 years. Last year it finally broke the trend and ENSO 4 got cold for the first time in a very long time. Not sure what it does later on in this fall and the winter, but right now the cold anomalies aren’t focused there. I think they end up focusing in region 3.4 as we move into the winter and the models are all agreeing with that so far
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@40/70 BenchmarkIf this really does become a true central Pacific La Niña for late fall and the winter, would it change your forecast? Or no because it’s weak?
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Lol No one in their right mind takes Judah Cohen, Joe Bastardi or Henry Margusity seriously anymore. I would call them clowns but that would be an insult to clowns….
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I was 4 lol
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Oh yea definitely a -AO/-NAO driven winter. The PAC side was also favorable that winter even with the Niña. It was just wall to wall cold and snowy from November right through the end of March. It was one of those winters that found a way to snow
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95-96 was strange because it was strong +PDO which is very odd with a healthy La Niña in place, even for a 1st year Niña in that case. It was also +PMM which probably lead to the juiced up STJ
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Did they give a reason as to why? We have gone into a -PMM since late last winter, that would seemingly support a weak/inactive subtropical jet
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Not really IMO maybe @CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmarkcan chime in, but the 1960’s-1970’s saw an extremely negative PDO cycle and some of the deepest -NAO/-AO periods on record
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This is the deepest -PDO we’ve seen in many years. You can see the classic “cold ring” developing over the last month.
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Aren’t the overwhelming majority of 2nd year La Nina’s CP/Modoki? I remember reading a research article about that maybe 6 or 7 years ago. I’ll try to find it again
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This goes into some detail about the Niña/QBO/Aleutian ridge relationship also mentions HM’s research: https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/56240977/griteaters-winter-outlook-16-17
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I wouldn’t be either if I lived in New England
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It’s central based for sure….however, if Coastalwx is right and this event goes low-end moderate….I would not want to be south of New England this winter
