snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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15 days away….do we really believe the -PNA just goes away or is this yet another day 15 “great pattern” mirage on the ensembles? I can definitely buy the -NAO, but the PNA flip? Color me very skeptical
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And the GFS is very likely too far south with 2/28. Its bias at play again. A CMC scenario is the most likely outcome
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Are you a weather fan? Or only a cold and snow fan?
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The Euro with a monster storm on 3/4. Plows a deeply occluded 958mb low into Illinois
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Yep. Given that setup, it would take an absolutely perfect, everything has to go exactly right, Miller B transfer to bring NYC a major snowstorm
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If I lived in New England, especially central and northern New England I’d be gung-ho about next week too
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The winter of day 9-10 “threats” lol
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Saturday has absolutely screaming fast flow. I don’t think it amounts to anything but I guess stranger things have happened
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If there is an actual legit threat window, it’s probably something like 3/8-3/16. It’s way out there but the -NAO will be decaying at that point and the -PNA might relax somewhat (that’s not saying much) but assuming it’s still even cold enough at that point, it may be the “last gasp” if that’s what you want to call it. Past that point, it’s over, stick a fork in it IMO. I think Sat/Sun is a weak sauce nothing burger and 2/28 is a massive cutter. Low confidence on the 3/8-3/16 idea right now though
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The only model showing any interest in Sat/Sun is the UKMET. The CMC is a sheared, disjointed strung out mess like the GFS, ICON and last night’s EURO
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If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day?
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The EURO strengthened the -PNA big time going into early March at 12z. It has snow into the higher elevations of Baja. This is nuts, the 534 line is into Mexico https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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@donsutherland1 Turns out MJO phase 8 isn’t as cold on the composites in March as it is in Dec, Jan, Feb…so even if it gets there, it’s not going to live up to the hype
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It’s probably onto March for wintry hopes. The 2/23-2/28 period looks like it’s trending badly at this juncture
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The EURO has a weak sauce nothing burger for Saturday. Less than an inch for the city and that’s using the Kuchera, it looks throughly unimpressive
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Yep, it’s about to have a huge cutter on 2/28, just looking at 500mb, it’s probably going to show rain to Montreal
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Sleet at best. The upper levels are torched. We’re not getting snow out of that one
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If you want something in March, you have a 15 day window (3/1-3/15). Anything after that point would have to be a freak, anomalous event. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all against you by 3/15 and it only gets worse from there
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Looks like very strong -PNA, +EPO, +AO. The only thing it’s got going for it is the -NAO. It’s going to be March, where’s the arctic air? March, 2018 had -EPO and cross-polar flow delivering arctic air, that’s why it was such an epic month. We don’t have that this time
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The 2/23-2/28 time frame trended poorly for snow on the new model runs. Not really surprising at all. Onto March I guess
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Cold bias as in the GFS is too far south. It will end up correcting north just like it did for the middle of this upcoming week. It had snow in DC and Baltimore in earlier runs. It has done this I don’t know how many times already this winter
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I don’t know about all 3 being rain in SNE, south of there? Absolutely. IMO, all 3 are going to turn into New England frozen events with primarily all rain south of there. The GFS cold bias is ridiculous
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The CFS isn’t alone. All 3 ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a very strong -PNA and massive SE ridge hook up with the -NAO by day 11 and it’s lights out. I think this one may be over
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What’s your snow total since November? …..SCORE!!
