snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Back in November, 2014 the PDO was record strong positive and getting even stronger. It helped force that insanely strong, relentless ++PNA/-EPO/-WPO, which was present for that entire winter. It was all PAC driven. The NAO and AO were both severely positive that winter and did us no good at all
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Obviously a lot can change between now and the fall, but so far, this developing El Niño looks absolutely nothing at all like a Modoki event
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It’s over let it go
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I can’t even imagine how much worse that summer would have been with high humidity. That July 4th heatwave was crazy, I remember hitting 100F. The heat started in May and went unabated right through September. I honestly can’t remember a 5 month stretch that relentlessly hot
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Summer, 2010 was out of control hot. The hottest summer I can ever remember. It was just relentless, I think every damn day was in the 90’s. Brutal
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Absolutely. If the ensembles are correct, that’s easily 80+ in April with downsloping westerly flow, as long as we get sunshine
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The March MJO progression and strong east-based warming would seemingly support a strong event, but a very long way to go. Paul Roundy is on the strong train so far, we’ll see
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It looks like a healthy +IOD is going to develop which would support Nino development and -SOI
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Paul Roundy is on the strong El Niño train. In previous tweets he said he believes this is going to be a very significant event, believes it may go strong
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He’s totally gone off the deep end this winter. This is way worse than his “vodka cold” bust of 01-02. He’s Casey Jones on the runaway train
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02-03 was a Modoki event start to finish. It didn’t start out east-based and move west
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You fell for it again!! I’m dead!! This winter was great lol thanks for all the laughs! Lmfaoooo [emoji3517] [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
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Yea, there’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño. Joe Bastardi tried making that asinine argument back in 15-16 and was using 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. Worst analogs ever in history and worst winter forecast in history. Region 3.4 was +3.1C the last week of November and that fool was still hyping a very cold winter with 02-03 style snowstorms for the east coast
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You live in Philly lol you really think you have a shot at a snowstorm next week? [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
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Say goodnight and goodbye. It’s over Johnny. Done. Finished. Adios. History. Stick a fork in it. The fat lady has sung. It’s Dead Jim! Bring down the curtain. The ship has sailed. Give it up. Peace out. See you in 9 months. Let it go. A former winter…..
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The NYC metro area will have its chance again…..9 months from now…..
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I don’t like to use the “we’re due” argument but it’s been 25 years since we’ve had a true east-based El Niño event. Eventually it’s going to happen again, is this the year it happens? Who knows, but as of right now, that’s how it’s developing. Anyone’s guess where it goes from here. The east-based events in the past have occurred more often during -PDO regimes like the have now
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I doubt super right now too. If it were to go super….easiest winter forecast ever. Predict a torch and hope you get a well timed 15-16 or 82-83 bomb up the coast
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For whatever reason, the GFS loves to show fantasy record/historic snow bombs in mid-late March and April that are gone in a run or 2
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Dropped to 21 in Sloatsburg, this is probably it until December
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Good luck with that!
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It’s really astonishing that we have gone over 25 years without an east-based El Niño
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It’s actually rivaling 97-98. This is very clearly an east-based El Niño developing right now, something we haven’t seen in over 20 years (97-98), pretty much every event since then has been a Modoki. Region 1+2 is on fire and region 3 is warming at an extremely rapid pace. Does this continue into the summer? Who knows but this is quite the event taking shape as of now
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And a healthy +IOD is developing. Region 1+2 is on fire right now and region 3 is also warming extremely rapidly. If this continues into the summer (big If) I think there may be a shot at a strong/super El Niño, but way, way too early
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I don’t see it either. Who knows how ENSO will look 9 months from now, whether it will be east-based or not. The striking thing is that it’s been decades (97-98) since we have seen an El Niño develop like this. Pretty much all the Nino events since then have been Modoki’s. Does this continue? Who knows but so far this is way out of the norm for the last 20 years. This may be -PDO regime related:
