snowman19

Don’t worry. By mid-November he will be right to very cold and snowy for the east coast. Severe cold cold snow from Thanksgiving until till New Year’s, “December to remember”

Ok

@DonSutherland1 We are in a “grand solar minimum”. Lmfaooo Last year they were saying we were in a -QBO. The mis-information on twitter is hilarious [emoji23]

Now that it’s really getting going (-IOD) it’s going to form a positive feedback loop with the developing Niña/SOI and really accelerate the EWBs, trade winds, which the models are projecting going further into September. A weak Niña state by the end of this month appears inevitable at this point. As to your last post on the Atlantic hurricane season:

Yes, should have phrased it different, “entrenched”, but definitely a difference from last year. I also noticed the change in storm track, by this time last year, the warm pool/marine heat wave around Japan was getting beat to hell with storm after storm, this year, not so much. It is going to take a lot to get any meaningful change out that way, the +11F SSTs aside, the subsurface is just as anomalous

Last year there was a parade of storms, tropical and extratropical, this year, nothing. Like you said, that’s going to warm right back up quickly

Despite the hype on twitter that there’s going to be a huge Atlantic tropical burst this month, this isn’t looking so hot @PhiEaglesfan712

All they did was show the NAO. Nowhere in that tweet did they say +NAO = warm in the east nor did they even mention temps. I’m not sure what the gripe is, it is in fact showing a +NAO and no it’s not showing big warmth either, which was my point, separate from their tweet. If the NAO is really going to be that positive, then you would need -EPO assistance on the PAC side to avoid warmth in the east, which it evidently has

Take it FWIW, but If (IF) this is correct, pray for a -EPO winter again

Just off the top of my head it definitely did not work in 2013….low Atlantic ACE, cold-neutral ENSO and one of the most positive NAO/AO winters in recorded history

Me either. Up until right now, everything I have seen on this topic has tied high Atlantic ACE, not low Atlantic ACE to a -NAO

We are at the tail end of arctic sea ice melt season, the final numbers for August are not in yet, but as of the last NOAA update on 8/27, although we are at record low sea ice levels, we were solidly higher than the all time record low in 2012. Back on 8/5 the UK Met Office had us in 5th place (lowest), however, they also have yet to update the final numbers for August NOAA: https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover

Here’s how the month’s sunspots finished….and solar flux is back up over 230. Geomag has also really picked up, NOAA now expecting a strong G3 geomag storm

Well defined tropical instability waves showing up in the Nino regions on the SST anomaly charts…..a sign of a rapidly developing La Niña. SSTs in region 3.4 are starting to pass the Niña threshold of -0.5C. EWBs are continuing. I think it’s all but a given that we are going to be in a La Niña this fall into at least the early part of the winter as the models have been projecting for some time now @FPizz Weak

If I had to pick out the things in the PAC that are different from last year at this time besides the obvious (-IOD, earlier developing La Niña, -PMM, -AAM), it would be the total lack of a parade of recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical systems coming off the coast, upwelling and cooling the marine heatwave around Japan like we had last year.

@GaWx As expected, geomag is picking up again

13-14 was one of the strongest ++AO/++NAO winters in history, I believe it was second only to the 88-89 winter. It was 100%, all Pacific driven. We went into a Victoria mode PDO (psuedo +PDO) and had relentless strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO all winter long. The PAC side behaved like an El Niño despite the cold-neutral ENSO that was in place

EURO/EPS hasn’t been what it used to be for awhile now @Stormchaserchuck1 In regards to your last post: “Actually the cold waters off of New Foundland have turned my N. Atlantic SST indicator for Winter NAO negative on the daily. Of course, it's an average of May-Sept, but Erin really did cool that -NAO area a bit.. if you want to make a correlation between ACE and following Winter NAO, like a lot of people do... It's been pretty rare lately to have that whole area from the Davis strait to N. Atlantic below average, but there has been persistent -H5 over the region this Summer. I've found that since 2012 it correlates with a following Winter ridge at 90N.” The last time I remember the North Atlantic being this cold was 2013-14

This is shaping up to be the strongest -IOD event since 16-17

Lowest region 3.4 SSTAs since the tail end of last winter….

The cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight was there way before Irene. It’s been a very stable feature for several months now. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out well over a month ago. The cooling along the east coast and further out in the central North Atlantic was upwelling from Irene yes