snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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This is a result of the SPV becoming extremely strong and starting to couple with the troposphere. The AO/NAO are both about to go ++
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If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..
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As far as the pattern, this MJO wave is very strong, convection is exploding, you can see it on the satellite views of the IO and AAM is dropping very negative. We are clearly going into a well coupled La Niña state by early February. It’s fitting February La Niña climo perfectly
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And we are about to see a very strong EWB the tail end of this month and continuing into early February
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The ensembles and operationals are all in agreement that we see a big pattern change by the beginning of February. The MJO is going to (finally) constructively interfere with La Niña, it has just entered the IO, confirmed by satellite and the SPV is about to go on steroids (near record strength/record cold stratospheric temps) and couple with the TPV SPV
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The drought from the fall never stopped. We are still officially in a major drought. You’re just not noticing it because it’s the dead of winter
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Verbatim that precip map could well be indicative of lakes cutters and inside runners
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I think early February, 2016 was the last time Rockland saw lows like this
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@bluewave @donsutherland1 The February pattern change cometh
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Next week, the pattern is completely unsupportive of any major snowstorms IMO. I don’t care what GFS fantasies may show up
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+EPO though unlike earlier in the winter
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The new HREFs are not suggesting 1” per hour rates for hours where they do occur. This thing is moving way too fast and doesn’t have the explosive deepening you’d want to see in order for it to really overperform
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Just a guess, I think this is going to be a general 3-4 inches for the entire metro area, the elevated areas of NJ and in Orange County NY should see some higher numbers. This thing is really flying, looks like it’s going to be all over around 11pm tonight
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EURO is 3-4 area wide @psv88 What isn’t true? That’s what the EURO on pivotal weather is showing, . 3-4 inches area wide. I’m not making it up
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And to think Mark Margavage was riding it like Sea Biscuit lol
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All the mesos except for the NAM lol it wants no part of this storm, never has
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NWS Upton doesn’t seem as bullish as early this morning for Rockland County. They are expecting 4-8 total: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ069 Sunday Night Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches.
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Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point
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I was because of that one burp, rouge 6z EURO run but since then I’ve altered my view. I never for one second believed that rain was on the table. It was either a hit or east/OTS and a minor event in my mind. I’m thinking 2-3, 2-4, which I’m sure none of you will be upset about given how this has gone since November here Edit: @Allsnow EPS hasn’t budged one iota. Mean: 2-3 inches area wide
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I’m going down with this ship. The EURO/EPS is not going to be off by over 100 miles with less than 3 days to go. I’m sorry
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Minor minuscule windshield wiper effect changes on the EURO/EPS for run after run. Despite the little changes, it’s been basically 2-3 inches area wide the entire time
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Call me crazy and you guys can rip me apart for it if I’m wrong, but I’m not betting against the EURO and EPS this close in
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I don’t give a hoot how “consistent” the RGEM, CMC and the Garbage Forecasting System are, they are way too far west IMO. They can absolutely be consistently wrong. It’s possible even the UKMET and ICON are a bit too far west. The regular 12K NAM is probably out to lunch based on what the 3K just did
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It’s a battle between the EPS and the GEPS/GEFS now. The EPS wants to squash the SE ridge and has a weaker -PNA. The GEPS/GEFS want to really tank the PNA and pump the SE ridge
