snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I would expect it to stay that way (east-based and strong to possibly super) due to Bjerknes feedback. Once that feedback loop gets established, the SST warmth is self-sustaining and even magnifies. It has been shown that Bjerknes feedback is stronger and more sustainable in the eastern ENSO regions. This event has developed as a classic Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and there’s no reason to doubt it stays that way. See this study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5
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Another new model run showing an east-based strong event…
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It doesn’t matter if it’s east-based or basin-wide once it gets to super status. There’s no such thing as Modoki/central pacific super Ninos, they are either Eastern Pacific or basin-wide. 15-16 was a basin-wide super event and it was a torch. We got lucky with one storm that winter
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I’m more interested in what the ultimate strength of the El Nino is. If it goes super (+2.0C or above), it will be a very, very easy winter forecast…..blowtorch…just like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 were. Then all you can do is pray for a real lucky, well timed snowstorm when you actually have cold air, like 1/16 and 1/83
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The Euro seasonal has an extremely east-based/Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño:
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Correct, however, the POAMA (BOM) and CANSIPS are both showing similar outcomes
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If the El Nino is that strong and east-based like the Euro Seasonal is showing, that outlook makes no sense. It’s going to strengthen the tropical Atlantic trade winds and there will be wind shear from the PAC galore. At the very least, it would shut down the Caribbean
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Also, 97-98 was -QBO, like this year…. And although it didn’t come off a Niña, the 96-97 winter was cold neutral ENSO
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A late November peak sounds about right. The 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 events all peaked in late November
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If this turns into an El Niño fail (A La 2017) a whole lot of pros and experts are going to look really, really stupid….CPC/NOAA, BOM, PAGASA, Paul Roundy, HM, Mike Ventrice, Jason Nicholls, World Climate Service, Accuweather, Commodity Wx Group, The Weather Channel, Eric Webb, Ben Noll, Phil Klotzbach, DT, JB, Matt Lanza, Rob Carlmark, Simon Lee…..
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So far, both Nino 3 and 1+2 are the warmest ENSO regions. Nino 3 is now +0.7C and has been warming rapidly since the end of March https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png
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So much for region 1+2 dropping. It appears Bjerknes feedback is setting up, if that’s what’s happening it’s going to sustain that warmth and continue to migrate into region 3. Studies have shown Bjerknes feedback is enhanced when it sets up over the eastern ENSO regions. See this study https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5#:~:text=El%20Niño%2DSouthern%20Oscillation%20
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The overwhelming majority of ENSO events (Ninos and Niñas) normally peak in late fall, then begin to weaken….both 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaked the last week of November then began to weaken after that. If I’m not mistaken, 1982-83 was also an end of November peak….
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