snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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IMO, We are into a strong Nino by astronomical fall. Are we +1.9C into a strong Nino? I don’t know, but I think we will be above the +1.5C threshold at that point
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“I am El Niño….”
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I said yesterday, I don’t think it peaks THAT high, but I could absolutely see a super peak of +2.5C come December. My ballpark peak range is +2.1C - +2.5C. The latest Euro shows a super peak and the CFS is caving to that
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Wow! The new POAMA run isn’t backing down, shows the El Nino peaking at +2.9C in December: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34
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It’s trending towards the Euro, no shock. Pretty good evidence now that we are very likely in a strong El Nino by the Equinox and most likely “super” (above +2.0C) by November/December. While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 style super peak, I think we very well may be somewhere in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C in region 3.4 for a final peak come December
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Based on how this is progressing and what the models are showing, it most likely peaks in December. I think we are in a strong El Niño event by the fall equinox and I think we surpass the +2.0C (super) threshold sometime in late November or December
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I’m growing more confident that we will already be in a strong El Niño by the start of fall. I think it takes until late November/December to eclipse +2.0C in region 3.4
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HM and others said those RMM plots are normally very inaccurate due to noise and completely miss MJO signals. The VP and OLR are much more accurate
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IMO, I’d say strong is a given at this point, 100%. I’d give a “super” event (above +2.0C) a 95% chance come November/December
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From HM:
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No one knows where the main forcing will be this winter or should be at this point, way, way too early for that. Maybe it will be further west, maybe it will be east. Look again in the fall
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Only in Joe Bastardi delusional wishcasting weenie world does a Modoki look likely. IMO east-based is the most likely outcome with basin-wide the 2nd most likely
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In other news you have Joe Bastardi tweeting 10 times a day that the El Nino is turning into a full fledged Modoki and it’s going to be the coldest and snowiest winter ever in east coast history. Always a real plus to have that kiss of death on your side [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
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Right! Let’s find the coldest and snowiest looking 500mb maps we can find for Jan, Feb, Mar and post them on 7/11!!!! Oh and images of -NAO/-AO, let’s post those too!!! Maybe we can find some rouge Chinese model showing a massive SSWE in December and we can post that in here as well!!
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It’s not a hard concept, well maybe for the challenged people, like yourself. It’s called stick to the topic, which is clearly “El Nino” in here. If you want to wishcast about winter 500mb patterns and high latitude blocking, and -NAO’s go do that in a winter thread
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Could someone please start a 2023-24 winter thread so we can stop posting winter pattern fantasy maps from 6, 7, 8 months from now in a dedicated El Niño thread?
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If the Euro is correct, the real big warming is ASOND
