snowman19

If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air

Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

What does the PAC side look like?

The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:

Very believable that we are in a strong El Niño by 9/1 now. At this point strong is inevitable and IMO so is super. The question is how “super” does it go by December? IMO there is a limit….definitely weaker than 15-16 and 97-98 but still super in the end none the less…..

Do I think the +2.9C the new POAMA run for December is showing is overdone? Yes and I’ve said that a few times now. However I absolutely do think it goes super in December and my guess for a peak is still +2.1C - +2.5C

Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….

How anyone in their right mind could take this clown seriously is beyond me. He’s hyping 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, saying it’s going to become a Modoki and posting a model run showing a super El Niño. “Top 5 event!” There’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Nino. How do people pay to read this utter garbage??

The strong/super El Niño along with the +IOD is very likely to cause a major change in the dominant tropical convective forcing/MJO. As @bluewave pointed out, you can already see the SST and forcing changes showing up. Any change would lead to a much different outcome than the stagnant WPAC forcing we’ve seen since 2019….

Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:

The new update from Skywatch India on the IOD and ENSO….They have a real healthy +IOD forming and they have the El Niño (region 3.4) going Super and peaking at +2.1C in December:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting

You are a broken record. You have been saying this literally since March. 5 months now. Boy who cried wolf

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

Adios -PMM/-PDO….El Nino forcing the change

@bluewave A +IOD is very clearly developing now

Once the +IOD gets going (should be next month) I think this really takes off and we see good atmospheric coupling/-SOI/WWBs/DWKWs along with the associated warming and feedbacks

The POAMA took a dump on this one. Much too warm. I think the Euro ends up being the closest to reality with a “low-end” super Nino peak around December. The warm water volume we have isn’t going to be denied

Just based on recent history (since 72-73) and the way the subsurface is starting to look, I’d have to say the chances are high that there’s a La Nina for fall, 2024. That said, a very, very long way to go obviously

I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….

You’ve been saying this since March. 5 months and counting. Just keep repeating it, eventually you’ll be right….

On the bright side, nothing could possibly be worse than last winter, that was the floor, the only place to go is up. My area only had one 6+ storm at the tail end of February. November was a total dud, December, January and March had next to nothing and January/February was a wall to wall torch a rama. The only winter worse than that was 01-02….97-98, 11-12 and 19-20 weren’t even that bad