EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Euro agrees.
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Found this mornings GEFS MJO interesting.... finally phase 8
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Same date (14). GEFS has less Ridging out west/Alaska.
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Thanks. It's just amazing how much 2000 through 2018 mirrored 55 through 69 in snowfall, KU count and time period length. If you have the Northeast Snowstorm KU book they are so similar. The ocean temp anomolies during each period must have mirrored each other in location/configuration.
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I know everyone hates it but that was the theme before 2000, warm and wet/cold and dry (basically January). I mentioned before, I would really love for someone to do an analysis on why 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 were so snowy and had the majority of our KUs (as opposed to pre 1955 and 1970 through 1999). The obvious answer is we witnessed more blocking, and the mean trough was in the east rather than the west. However, would like to know what drove that setup. Water temps? Solar?
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Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.
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Still looks good and not pushed back. All three models are in basic alignment. I will try to post the 14th every day to track timing. My gut feeling - just like the last round I believe the Middle Atlantic and possibly southeast will benefit the most. Just a hunch. We would benefit from a little more se ridging.
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Taken from the MA forum - I feel good for them, they have had it really bad WRT snowfall for years. Hopefully they can cash in during the next period as well and end up solidly above normal.
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I mean, March 2015 and March/April 2018 were historic, March 2017 was solid and March 2019 was great for the northern half of the sub forum, so even if it's pushed back 2 weeks it can still produce.
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EPS, GEPS and GEFS all are in alignment (save minor nuances).
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Seems like the inverse of March from a decadal perspective.
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March is an odd Month statistically. 2000s seemed to rarely snow in March while the 90s and 2010s seemed fairly snowy.
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There is your MJO phases 8, 1, 2 (again same as we saw earlier). Also AO going negative. On a side note, we have obviously brought back the coastal hugger. Now, we have a clipper!! Both typical storms before 2000.
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Completely agree. Also, Don mentioned in the beginning of the season "the elephant in the room", referring and listing 97/98. This has been 97/98 with an added cold shot that lasted approx 1.5 weeks. It's not over yet and we will likely get another week or so of favorable conditions, but who knows if we will get anything or the MA will get it again. Good for them.
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Right, but that may increase snowfall in larger storms that are cold enough. Perhaps less storms but more snow and less suppression (SE ridge). Too early to tell. -
I mean, 2000 through 2018 was warmer than 55 through 69 so who knows.
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How do we know that this will result in less snowfall? I.e. what if we lose the marginal events, but gain additional snowfall in larger events? What if the storms that hit the MA in the past hit us now? I do not think there is any definitive evidence that our average annual snowfall will be less. We are entering another terrible stretch between great stretches like 55 through 69 and 00 through 18, so it's magnified. Remember CPKs average annual snowfall from 70 through 99 was only around 21 inches.
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Take a look at the plot and connect to START. Like train tracks.
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Same exact thing happened with the last wave with 8. As long as we go through 1,2 and 3 we will have our shot, ans perhaps we will do a little better than the last stretch.
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Firing up in phase 1 again as expected (Nittany - understood it's not the only driver). AO going slightly negative, NAO neutral (same with PNA).
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This happened all year long in 97/98. Repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but heavy rain. People who were not old enough in 97/98 are getting the full experience now. Also, although it may be happening more often, we had perfect storm tracks with rain in the 70s, 80s and 90s outside of 97/98 as well. Perhaps I am not as worried since I lived through this before, however I am confident we will get into another 1955 - 1969, 2000 - 2018 period again. Problem is, the lull periods tend to be much longer than the snowy periods. I just hope it's not 30 years like 1970 through 1999 lol.
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Delaware is beating most of us this year.
