EastonSN+

Like 2015 I do not consider this a bust. In 2015 I was supposed to get almost 3 ft and got 7 inches, and in this event was supposed to get one to two feet and got nine and a half inches. Disappointments but not a bust, even the city had a six to eight event out of this. To me a bust is like what Philadelphia was supposed to get in 2015 which was 6 to 12 inches and got zero.

I would sign up for a repeat of that in a heartbeat.

Would fit the theme from December of coating to 2-inch events.

Another decent hit for the Mid-Atlantic on this run.

With regards to the teleconnections the most consistent this season are a continued negative nao and negative EPO. More variability in the AO and potentially PNA.

Quick spike with the AO a strong storm signal?

Starting to see a decent wave in phase one.

If we do get the RNA, one difference as compared to last two years is that it does not look at this time that the trough would be too far west into far south into Baja. Delicate balance as we do not want a grinder effect.

If we do not lose that low, would a less intense low work as well?

What's hilarious is my childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland is going to do great with respect to average snowfall once again this year. Even they are doing better than us compared to average.

Having a coastal hugger and a mostly rain event would complete the 1980s profile of cold and dry and warm and wet lol.

Thunder snow in Kansas city! Hoping they reach 12 inches for the first time since 1962.

I hope this one works out

On the gefs the 50/50 low to the east is what we need to keep this from hugging too much or cutting. Something to watch. I kind of see what Chuck is saying about the nao when looking at Greenland. However that's definitely a negative AO.

Thanks for this as always however Storm chaser Chuck in the Middle Atlantic forum seems to think this will be a rain event. That being said they are south of us.

Litchfield county in Connecticut absolutely raked in that depiction.

Just your typical 971 on Long Island.

Found this when searching. It's odd when I grew up in the 1980s I always remember everybody complaining how warm the winters were and how El nino became a common phrase LOL. Global warming finally became a common topic during the eighties. "New York City's average winter temperature is characterized by daily highs that decrease from 49°F to 45°F, rarely falling below 26°F or exceeding 61°F. In January, the average daily temperature ranges from around 22°F to 38°F, but it's common for temperatures to drop below freezing, especially at night. New York's average annual temperature has warmed 3°F since 1970, and is projected to rise by another 3°F by 2080. The state is also expected to experience more days above 90°F and more heat waves in the future."

I do see what you're seeing as well, I just feel like 6 years is an extremely small sample size. If this continues then I can definitely be convinced and I am open-minded to it I just need more time and data. Living and experiencing the 1980s and 1990s have really given me pause as I remember them being very warm and snowless and that may be skewing my viewpoint now.

Looks like the axis of the trough is once again on top of us which is not good. Hoping we could potentially get an RNA to help pump the southeast ridge however with blocking that just may end up shredding any shortwave that gets up here.

Agreed, which is basically what the 1990s were, and how you pointed out that was the start of the high volatility time frame. A good sign for us though was we got a KU event just 3 years ago so not too far back in the rear view mirror and we did have a KU in 2018 and 2017 each March. My personal benchmark is 1970 through 1999 and I'm fairly confident we can beat that this decade. In any event this will be fun to watch and track.

For this decade I was using the four-year period starting with 2000 2021 which is what the table that's provided by the national weather service starts with. Seems they go from 0 for each decade instead of 9. We could start from 2018 2019 which would yield an average of 15.2667. time will tell however it is still early in the grand scheme of things.

Okay couldn't help myself I had to compare 1950 through 1969 against 2000 through 2019. I think we can all agree that 1950 through 1969 was a colder period than 2000 through 2019. Even though 1950 through 1969 was much colder 2000 through 2019 averaged more snowfall. The average snowfall for 50 through 69 was 26.62. the average snowfall for 2000 through 2019 was 32.35. again another example of how warmer and more volatility is compensating for warming temperatures. I get that at some point if we continue to warm we will reach a tipping point and drop, I just don't think we are there yet or at least I don't have enough evidence.

I just did a deep dive into the last five decades for Central Park snowfall against the last 4 years to see how our average will not drop but move toward normal. My theory is that although we will lose snow events we will compensate with more fuel from coastal storms and any storm that's cold enough to snow. One comparison would be the frigid 1970s where our average snowfall for the 10-year period was a mere 21.25 inches. Compare that to the much warmer 1990s where the snowfall average was 24.73. The warmer decade ended with more snow even though the majority fell in three seasons. The least amount fell in the '80s at 19.74 inches. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was a mere 21.90667 inches. So far for this decade our average is 16.575 and we have five more years to go after this year. This year is looking like a dud however in this new environment all it takes is for one coastal to drop 18 inches and it changes the landscape of the entire winter. It wouldn't take much to raise our snowfall average for this decade from 16.575 to 21.90667 of the 30-year period from 1970 through 1999. I am throwing out 2000 through 2019 as each decades average was 31.47 and 33.23. this time frame aligns better with 1950 through 1969 where there are multiple KU events just like the last two decades and that is a better comparison for those two snowfall average periods. If we want to include the last two decades from 1970 through last year the average snowfall was 25.37963. I think that it is very plausible that over a 10-year period we will average normal snowfall in the same way the 1990s which had three average to above average snowfall seasons outperformed the much colder '70s and much more average 80s. I will continue to keep track