EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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The ensemble mean for 360 hours was 11.5. Central Park could Easily get that. One up run of the GFS should never be taken verbatim. -
I am personally comparing 2019 onwards to the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999. That average was 21.90667. A smidge under half way there.
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Thanks for quantifying this. It is indeed interesting. I wish the sample size was much greater however negative 4 SD is rare.
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These are tools that we have at our disposal. As long as we looked at them responsibly they can be somewhat useful. This is why i caveated that the skill level drops beyond week 3, which is why I only posted week 3 before the question was presented. When looking at the modeling and h5 patterns that are presented by meteorologists and other posters on this board one must always understand that it is the future, and we are not close to being 100% accurate with our modeling.
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100% this has been a very fun winter from a tracking perspective. I posted a couple times before that the extremely high snow mean on the ensembles of 11.5 before the last storm are in reach for Central Park, which is crazy to think about. Have three more opportunities at least to pick up that difference.
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Thanks Don I responded to Blue Wave with the question of whether the warmer Gulf temperatures and ocean temperatures in general are causing the storms to be more intense and therefore more prone to cutting which would therefore pump the southeast ridge higher to connect with the nao. Seems to happen only when the blocking starts to get established not when it's established.
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I wonder if the stronger more intense storms were getting due to the warmer ocean temperatures and gulf temperatures are pumping up the southeast ridge so much that it does link up with the nao. Basically the catalyst. I am happy to hear that it has happened in the past (under -4) so this is not completely new territory. Out of curiosity are blocking episodes of -4 or deeper increasing?
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Crazy that we didn't have much of an RNA the entire La Nina winter.
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Crazy to think this blocking episode could be stronger than the last one.
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Do we have the liquid equivalent for Central Park.
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Mid March. Please keep in mind the skill level past week three is suspect.
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Thanks as always Don. Not trying to pull you into a discussion, so please feel free to ignore, however I am keenly interested in the thought that the southeast ridge never linked UP with the nao since we have been monitoring the h5 pattern. Was this cataloged so we can check? Not trying to argue with Blue Wave I would just love to have statistical evidence because that is a major development if true. I would think that any intense storm cutting to the West in the development stage of blocking where the southeast ridge is present could link the two at any point but I could be wrong.
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I honestly think they over measured as much as they under measured to be honest. Especially going way back.
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Week 4 of the CFS so outside it's reliability range of 3 weeks. However the blocking lasts through week 3, then we have this colder look. Then it looks like we mild up for spring!
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Looks pretty good hopefully not dry. Would like the PNA to be a bit further west with the strength of that block.
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Great news for California!
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Yeah we don't like it when the blocking is that strong.
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Not trying to argue however do we have definitive evidence that this never ever occurred before? Recorded times that is. When did we start observing h5 and the weather community?
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Both in the two epic snowfall periods.
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The 11.5 inches that the ensemble mean was showing for Central Park before the last storm is in reach. Pretty good job by the ensembles if this pans out.
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The crazy snow mean on the ensembles for Central Park was approximately 11.5 for the 360 hours. So far two storms down in Central Park has about 4.2 inches. That snow mean may come to fruition. Just 7.3 to go to meet it.
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SI didn't do good in 2022, 2021, 2018?
