EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Yeah if we do not just focus on snowfall average which was just 5 years and 30 years, then we see some positives just like we had a great month in 2022 and a great March in 2019. Also this year when looking back is going to look like another below average snowfall season, yeah we're going to have three below average temperature months as well as a lot of days of snow coverage. This winter will definitely be underrated. -
What's crazy is Central Park might actually get close to the crazy high snow mean of 11.5 in on the ensembles that we we're all shocked about. It is already at 4.1 and will likely get a few more inches this week. If they reach 8 then the ensemble mean was not that off base.
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Yeah this is why I don't think the issue is the water temperatures. The heat island effect does come into play for the city itself. I know I sound like a broken record at this point but Cold and dry warm and wet was the theme for 30 years from 1970 to 1999. This is why I'm tracking the average snowfall for that period Against the 2018 till now. As you stated earlier mother nature tends to repeat herself.
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Ocean City Maryland is right on the water and they're doing great since 2018 and they're literally on the beach LOL.
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It's going to be interesting to see how the next few years shake out. We thought the coastal hugger was extinct from 2000 through 2016. Suddenly one appeared March of 2017 and now we're getting a lot of coastal huggers so they became un extinct. We are getting clippers this year the problem is they've been moisture-starved. If your nephew hasn't already started your nephew should investigate 1955 through 1969 and see if we had clippers during that period. It could be cyclical as well.
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There is no doubt we're heading into a period where there will be a trough in the east. The overnight ensemble runs had the trough too far East similar to the last blocking episode in January. Hoping the ensembles revert back to the look the previous few days we shall see.
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Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.
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Still seeing them level off is a good sign. It was always a question of when they would start to cool. We may be in a level off period for a few years beforehand though.
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The euro for 6z looks good for one to three inches for Central Park. Likely another coating to 3 inched storm. Theme of the season.
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Looks like the waters around Indonesia and Australia have leveled off. Could be the start of the cooling trend in those Waters which would help with the mjo.
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Or 1970 through 1999 LOL.
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If Central Park somehow goes the rest of the winter without accumulating snow, the average snowfall for the time period of 2018/19 through this year would be 14.52857. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was 21.90667. a 7.378095 difference.
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Any of the ensembles show more of a north movement than the ops?
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LOL if we want to have good snowfall seasons moving forward we have to move South. My childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland has beaten my hometown with regards to percentage of average since the snowy period ended in 2018 On a side note here we go again with cold and dry. Would be just a repeat of the last blocking episode. On a side note that crazy snow mean of 11.5 for Central Park is going to be close. They already have 4.1 of the 11.5 and will likely to get one to two on the next storm and one to two on the follow-up storm before it changes the rain. If they get to 8.1 then the 11.5 snow mean was not crazy at all. A decent job by the ensembles.
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I guess it's aligning with the maturing of The blocking.
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Awesome Central Park is closing in on the 11.5 on the snow mean from a few days ago. Already 4.1 down on the 11.5. Central Park has a legitimate shot.
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Terrible Euro run. At least the GFS and CMC are much better.
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The ensemble mean for 360 hours was 11.5. Central Park could Easily get that. One up run of the GFS should never be taken verbatim.
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I am personally comparing 2019 onwards to the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999. That average was 21.90667. A smidge under half way there.
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Thanks for quantifying this. It is indeed interesting. I wish the sample size was much greater however negative 4 SD is rare.
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These are tools that we have at our disposal. As long as we looked at them responsibly they can be somewhat useful. This is why i caveated that the skill level drops beyond week 3, which is why I only posted week 3 before the question was presented. When looking at the modeling and h5 patterns that are presented by meteorologists and other posters on this board one must always understand that it is the future, and we are not close to being 100% accurate with our modeling.
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100% this has been a very fun winter from a tracking perspective. I posted a couple times before that the extremely high snow mean on the ensembles of 11.5 before the last storm are in reach for Central Park, which is crazy to think about. Have three more opportunities at least to pick up that difference.
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Thanks Don I responded to Blue Wave with the question of whether the warmer Gulf temperatures and ocean temperatures in general are causing the storms to be more intense and therefore more prone to cutting which would therefore pump the southeast ridge higher to connect with the nao. Seems to happen only when the blocking starts to get established not when it's established.
