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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    That's hilarious about TWC. The climate is warming however why not throw in there that suppressed storms of the past would be pumped up and hit us due to the more present Southeast ridge and the virga storms of the past like 1987 would be more snow due to the higher moisture content in higher temperatures? They need to paint the total picture lol. I mean this storm was never supposed to be a big event I think two to four for Central Park is a big win. This is the 1970 through 1999 period in a nutshell, cold and dry warm and wet or a complete toaster baths with extreme warm Winters or frigid Winters with no precept. Every year growing up it was pulling teeth trying to get an all snow event LOL.
  2. EastonSN+
    Way out there but there is a PNA out west with blocking to the north here. Suppression would be the obvious risk here not cutter. That being said wow.
  3. EastonSN+
    Keep in mind the good pattern last to the end of the month so even in a worst case scenario like described it's not the end of the chances.
  4. EastonSN+
    Still looks good to have a favorable pattern to the end of the month.
  5. EastonSN+
    My apologies, then yes you should be very disappointed.
  6. EastonSN+
    Not sure why this would be disappointing, would likely be Central Park's largest snowfall total for the year and was always supposed to be a mix event.
  7. EastonSN+
    GFS 3.5 as well for Central Park. Only EURO and CMC are a bit higher. 2 to 4 is a good call right now for Central Park.
  8. EastonSN+
    Both names are remarkably close with snowfall totals for Central Park 3K 2.5 12K 3.5 inches.
  9. EastonSN+
    Yup, though will be the highest snowfall totals for Central Park this season and likely putting it over 10 inches for the season.
  10. EastonSN+
    What's crazy is the pattern will likely last till the end of the month.
  11. EastonSN+
    This is positive snow depth change and just through 294 lol.
  12. EastonSN+
    Do you know what the sleet and ice winter storm warning parameters are? I was curious as all I know is 6 in of snow and sleet. Wondering if you can have a winter storm warning if you had say three inches of snow and a 10th of an inch of ice.
  13. EastonSN+
    Had to borrow from the Middle Atlantic forum. Please keep in mind 10 to 1 so sleet will bring it down a bit.
  14. EastonSN+
  15. EastonSN+
    Yeah the perfect scenario is to have multiple snow events through the end of February then an early spring.
  16. EastonSN+
    Anyone have the latest EPS or gefs for the storm? Further north or south of the ops? Happy to accept negative affirmation if no one has checked.
  17. EastonSN+
    If I am not mistaken the block continues to decay which should extend the period till the end of the month. Essentially one extra week. Happy to stand corrected if warranted.
  18. EastonSN+
    The block was much stronger on this run.
  19. EastonSN+
    The beginning of the good period. Doesn't look like a risk of the SE ridge linking with the NAO.
  20. EastonSN+
    If Central Park can get 0.5 inches in today's storm no reason they can't get 1 to 3 in this event. All gravy before the blocking period really kicks in next week until the end of the month.
  21. EastonSN+
    Definitely a bit north this run. Looking at the positive snow depth 24-hour output it's basically the same amount of snow for the tri-state area as 6Z.
  22. EastonSN+
    Half inch for Central Park is a win I imo. The later runs of the hrrr had a Central Park between a half inch and an inch.
  23. EastonSN+
    Definitely looking better from a track perspective. I think the risk here, if we even want to call it a risk as it would be snow, would be less precipitation. Forky mentioned he was not a fan of the compressed flow which can cause the shredder effect. Something to keep a pulse on. Right now looks fantastic.
  24. EastonSN+
    Could very well be. I do like the fact that the ensemble show the window of a good period open through the last week of the month. So we may continue to rack up lighter events even after this one.
  25. EastonSN+
    For a KU event the Stars need to align usually. Just look at the period from 1970 through 1999. 30 years and only five above average snowfall seasons, and a debatable number of foot plus seasons where the national weather service may be missing a few (in any event nowhere near the amount we saw from 1955 through 1969 or 2000 through 2018, parallel time frames for high snowfall totals and KU events). Five seasons in 30 years. You are correct when you are saying we are in a low snowfall period, with one above average snowfall season, excluding this season for now, in 6 years. Really on track with the aforementioned 30-year period.
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