EastonSN+

The problem with the last two years is the RNA was incredibly negative. If the RNA was moderately negative or lightly negative with that nao block we could have had a couple of KU events. Ironically, if we had an RNA in this period, we would likely have seen decent snowfall if not more. On a side note this is like 2019 I believe, when the Middle Atlantic did better than us.

We would need the nao to stay negative and it could be a big snowfall opportunity for us, however if the nao does not cooperate then yes it's pretty much over until March.

Not only that but the Middle Atlantic may have more snowfall in this storm than Central Park had in 3 years combined LOL. Depending on how this year ends up. To be clear I still believe we have a good opportunity mid-month when the blocking relaxes however if it fails then we will be in the warm phases of the mjo and we have to wait for the reload so punting some of February is never good.

We may end up with negative departures for December and January with little to show for it. Just speaking of the mjo which looks weak, it will be heading to the warm phases by the end of the month. Hopefully we get back to the good phases by March where the shorter wavelengths may help with suppression. What's wild is the MA may have more snowfall this year than the combined snowfall for Central Park in 3 years combined including this year.

This is what I was fearing. Maybe it comes back North a bit today but running out of time.

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

If you look at Connecticut Northwest New Jersey and Pennsylvania the precept shield definitely moved South. Also check Washington DC.

I will be honest I was hoping for a more sizable shift North or a larger precipitation shield.

Hoping here in Southwest Connecticut.

The 18z euro is out?

The issue now is wave spacing otherwise it would have came up the coast that low pressure to the West is affecting it.

Think the gefs came a bit north

Yeah I was joking on that one. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles say

LOL uh oh we started the north trend a day too early.

Going to be an interesting Euro run

Seems we need the primary to hang on longer

I really hope it arrives, even if for a short time. We really need to shake things up.

Agreed on the nao part. What I like about this look if it is to come true is we do good with a slight RNA and negative nao. What we want to avoid is the last 2 years where we have an epic trough to Mexico. Slight RNA and a good nao block and we could be talking big snow.

Way out there but this is a much better look if we want an overrunning event. At least better than what we're seeing now.

Mjo going into the cod. Will be interesting to see what transpires with this mjo look if it verifies.

24.5 inches of snow fell in Central Park the winter of 92/93, which felt like a lot more given the prior few years lol. The March 93 storm was my third favorite of all time, even though my town only ended up with 11.5 inches of snow encased in ice. Nothing better than a megalopolis snowstorm media frenzy.

I do agree that volatility seems to have increased, which hopefully can work in our favor when we do have an above average winter like 3 years ago. I thought a winter like this would have been mitigated by The increased ridging in the southeast as well as the extremely warm ocean temperatures, however we may not have gotten to that point yet. If we take 95/96, our snowfall would have arguably been better if the same setup occurred today as there would be a lot less virga, offsetting the warmer temperatures.

The reason 1970 through 99 are referenced is due to the fact that it's set between two epic snowfall periods of 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018. Since 2018 we have had 1 above average snowfall winter, excluding this winter, 1 in 6 years. 2 years less than 50% of average. 70 through 99 had 4 (correcting my mistake before of 5) above average snowfall Winters, 11 of which were less than 50% of average (30-year period). My mistake if I painted a picture of absolutely no snow at all in that 30-year period, I am merely trying to give perspective to posters who have not lived like I did through the '80s and '90s which were a far, far cry from 2000 through 2018. 2000 through 2018, and for that matter 55 through 69, skewed snowfall averages as both periods had multiple KU events and above average snowfall winters in a short period as opposed to 70 through 99 which only had a handful, I believe there were only 6, widespread ku's in that 30-year period. I do not focus on temperatures at all as long as it's cold enough to snow. That being said I also don't want to paint the '80s as a frigid wasteland as I live through it and I remember multiple days in Winter which were very very warm, and was a time period where attention was pointed to global warming. Yes the early '80s did have some extremely cold periods and one month of December 1989 in an otherwise warm winter. I think we all already know the 90s were very warm.

I have to be honest I feel good for the Mid-Atlantic they deserve one.

We were overdue for a cold and dry winter.