EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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This has to be what happened between 1970 and 1999. The old fashioned cold and dry warm and wet LOL. -
The first wave is too far south then the follow-up wave is a cutter. The fact that Blue Wave is on the upcoming blocky period coming up is a good sign however. The concern would be suppression once it sets in like January. Check the below that's an intense block and by that time we lose our South East ridge.. We shall see.
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I still think Central Park can beat the half inch it had in the last storm of snow and sleet combined.
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I like the numbers that go off the chart. Again suppression would be the concern.
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Thanks yeah I meant 1955 through 1969.
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Some points. March changes every decade it seems. Hardly ever snowed 2000 through 2010. Snowed a lot 2011 to 2020. 2021 till now it does not snow much so we are in this decade pattern therefore not set in stone, I would hedge against a snowy March have to wait till 2030 LOL. 1990 through 1999 had a lot of March events too. See the pattern. On the topic of KUs, I have to re stress that these are uncommon. If you get the Kocin book you will see a large amount of KU events 1955 through 1960, then a dearth of them for our area from 1970 through 1999. Just because we have a strong block does not guarantee a KU event and more often than not will fail just like most of the blocks of the past have outside of the two snowy periods. I don't know if there are statistics going back that far, however I bet the fail rate for strong blocking from 1970 through 1999 is high. Had a lot of suppressed storms then just like we had record snows on the Gulf Coast this year.
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Not sure where you're located, however I've lived through so many of these in my lifetime that although they do tend to disappoint more often than not, unless you're a fan of sleet, we do get some that actually pan out as forecasted or even better. So while it's good to keep caution and maybe favor the lower end of the forecast one cannot discount completely the upper end of the forecast.
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The fast pac jet may have staying power unfortunately, and maybe part of the reason we had the same cutter suppressed hugger pattern from 1970 through 1999 for the most part. Perhaps that is the standard background State and 1955 through 1960 and 2000 through 2018 are the anomalies.
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That's an impressive amplification and phase 8 and overall correction in such a short time.
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Yeah Tip in the New England forum has been on top of/ focused on the Hadley cell for the past handful of years.
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I like to multi task
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Basically tonight's event is for the northern half of this forum and Tuesdays will likely be for the southern half of this forum. Hopefully there's not a dead zone between.
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Different thread. Walt is talking about the next two events next week which are both before the favorable time period that Blue Wave and Brooklyn WX were talking about, remember these events are before the block gets established. At that point the risk will be suppression not change over. That said I would still monitor Tuesday especially the southern half of this forum. The later storm looks like a pure cutter.
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NYC could have some vast difference between Staten Island and Bronx.
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12z CMC basically the same. A smidge north but increased CPK from 1.7 to 1.9 via Kutchera.
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So far the RGEM, HRRR and GFS are in that 3 to 5 for Central Park and inline with NWS.
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The difference between the more snowy models and the nams is not the rain snow line or the changeover line, but the actual thump. The nams do not have the initial thump and are dry before the changeover. Was there a 6z euro?
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So far given the least snowy nams and the more snowy Canadians, the href is really in the middle. I think Don's assessment is the most logical.
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Nemo was my second favorite storm of all time only second to the Blizzard of '96 which gave my town at that time, 27 inches Norwalk Connecticut. Nemo gave my talent of Norwalk 22 inches. It was an amazing storm with multiple components the first one was heavy wet snow and the rain snow line made it all the way to the Costa Connecticut then crashed back. Then lighter snows. Got to an actual dry slot at 10 inches. Then The heavy band moved in and in the end ended up with 22.
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Thanks Don this is the national weather service and weather channel snow forecast almost identically. Suspect if this cuts back we'll see the aforementioned services cut back as well
