I think I heard before that if there is a high pressure to the north feeding in colder air the piece of shield will be expansive like 1996 however if there is a low to the north then the precip shield will not be as expansive. Perhaps I meant on this board can confirm or deny.
Okay I am not a met, however, wouldn't the decaying blocking in the AO and nao regions allow this to nudge a little North?
Forky mentioned that our storm would happen as the block decays.
This aligns more closely with the 1970s which were cold and relatively dry. 1980s were split and volatile where we had very very warm periods Mixed in with the cold.