EastonSN+

Okay couldn't help myself I had to compare 1950 through 1969 against 2000 through 2019. I think we can all agree that 1950 through 1969 was a colder period than 2000 through 2019. Even though 1950 through 1969 was much colder 2000 through 2019 averaged more snowfall. The average snowfall for 50 through 69 was 26.62. the average snowfall for 2000 through 2019 was 32.35. again another example of how warmer and more volatility is compensating for warming temperatures. I get that at some point if we continue to warm we will reach a tipping point and drop, I just don't think we are there yet or at least I don't have enough evidence.

I just did a deep dive into the last five decades for Central Park snowfall against the last 4 years to see how our average will not drop but move toward normal. My theory is that although we will lose snow events we will compensate with more fuel from coastal storms and any storm that's cold enough to snow. One comparison would be the frigid 1970s where our average snowfall for the 10-year period was a mere 21.25 inches. Compare that to the much warmer 1990s where the snowfall average was 24.73. The warmer decade ended with more snow even though the majority fell in three seasons. The least amount fell in the '80s at 19.74 inches. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was a mere 21.90667 inches. So far for this decade our average is 16.575 and we have five more years to go after this year. This year is looking like a dud however in this new environment all it takes is for one coastal to drop 18 inches and it changes the landscape of the entire winter. It wouldn't take much to raise our snowfall average for this decade from 16.575 to 21.90667 of the 30-year period from 1970 through 1999. I am throwing out 2000 through 2019 as each decades average was 31.47 and 33.23. this time frame aligns better with 1950 through 1969 where there are multiple KU events just like the last two decades and that is a better comparison for those two snowfall average periods. If we want to include the last two decades from 1970 through last year the average snowfall was 25.37963. I think that it is very plausible that over a 10-year period we will average normal snowfall in the same way the 1990s which had three average to above average snowfall seasons outperformed the much colder '70s and much more average 80s. I will continue to keep track

It's not that they do not see what is going on it is more a discussion as to whether or not it will continue or abate.

Very true. That being said if the blocking was a little weaker we could have seen a good 6 to 12 from this event.

Also a warmer pattern does not mean no snow. We may end up with more snow in the warmer pattern than we get now.

Weeklies week 3. This shows our transition window well.

The mjo progression is interesting, looks like it gets stuck in phase 8 and 1 which is different than the last couple days which progressed it through 1 and 2.

Rooting for DC to have an above average snowfall winter which is looking pretty good at this point. We will get our winter, maybe next year, maybe a couple years from now, but it'll happen and we will be much more appreciative of it over the 2000 to 2018. When we expected it. Still tracking our average snowfall over this bad period starting in 2019 against the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 so even if this winter is a dud overall I am hopeful that we get a couple of snow events.

They we'll get down to -4 after the Storm overnight.

Jim Cantori is live in Kansas City. He said they may get thunder snow with the intensity and the weather channel is predicting 14 inches for Kansas City they do caveat that's any mixed could lower.

Thanks Don, I think the most interesting aspects of this event to watch are if Richmond stops their streak and if Kansas City gets their largest snowfall since 1962, the last time they had a foot of snow.

Talking about performance with regards to percentage of average. NYC has had less than 10 inch of snow 2 years in a row and only one above average snowfall season if we were to include this season. This would give DC two. So they could be outperforming us with regards to percentage of average over the course of the time.

It feels like the Middle Atlantic has been beating us with regards to percentage of average over the last 7 years including this year.

I hope the following happens as it would likely ensure DC has an above average snowfall winter.

What will be impressive is Kansas City may have its largest snowfall since 1962 and Richmond may have up to a foot according to the euro.

That's a lot of Lows. Bluewave this is not the wave spacing we need.

On a side note on the weather channel they mentioned that if Kansas City gets a foot it would be the first time since the 1960s wow.

There is nothing wrong with looking at the h5 pattern at 300 hours. In fact multiple people stated, including myself, that the axis of the trough was right over us and too far East. The h5 pattern at 300 was absolutely correct unfortunately. Forky even stated that the period could easily be cold and dry.

I believe that was the last winter where we had an above average snowfall December.

Hi Don, I believe Central Park stands at 11.6 in of snow for the last two seasons and this season so far. There is a chance that DC can reach a foot which would eclipse the 3-year Central Park snowfall total. I wonder if this has ever happened where DC's 3-year snowfall average has eclipsed Central Park.

Agreed however in this situation there is some remnant blocking, and with the cold air in place it could change over to rain, but you would at least have some front and snow. Better than having what we have now and that's a trough with the access right over us which is dry.

Still need to watch the following time frame, as this would be our best opportunity where the RNA finally starts to head negative, which will help pump the southeast ridge a little and fight the suppression. Cold air is in place ahead of the storm in this situation.

Looking at the below it does not seem like the mjo wave is as strong so it might have limited effects on our pattern.

Ironically the new look is a better opportunity for us with regards to snowfall then the old one, which is obviously suppression given the access of the trough. I cannot wait for this jet extension multi-year period to end, however as we have seen some patterns can last more than a decade so this may last a few more years.