EastonSN+

The hrr model starting with hour two shows this and has been showing it.

For what it's worth the ggem came in West with the precept shield for the initial batch.

Really shows how much luck is involved in some storms. Snow to the east and west.

I do agree that the volatility is definitely higher and we are deviating from the average more and more. That being said given our latitude I believe that the warmer ocean temperatures and therefore stronger storms could create much higher snowfall totals in years where there is more coastal storms. This is why I am not convinced that our average snowfall is going to decline. Looking at last year's storm in a scope I believe that the higher volatility in the atmosphere created the higher snowfall totals I would not be shocked if we had our highest snowfall season in history in the next few years, although that will be mixed in with a lot of below average snowfall seasons. The end result could be the same 30-year average snowfall that we've had in the past. I do not believe we can look at Washington DC Baltimore Philly and say we are now in their past climate given the fact that our location is higher in latitude and further away from the Gulf of Mexico (generally different).

Nam is likely overdone however seeing the hrr come in a bit West with the precept shield is a positive.

Nice but I prefer the 12K back here

Hrr precept shield moved West a bit compared to last run.

Hoping

NYC had only 4 above average snowfall winters from 1970 through 1999. 30 years. So far in this low snowfall period we have had one above average snowfall winter in 6 years so if this year is below average snowfall we are on a similar Pace not worse.

Wrote it before but it's still comical how when we're fearing the Northwest trend it always happens yet when we need a Northwest trend it never happens lol. Only been happening for 2 years but feels like forever.

Great to see the models at least inching West. Recently we have been fearing the West trends on the models due to the southeast ridge however this time we have to root for it LOL. One major difference between the last two Winters and this one is the lack of a deep RNA limiting the westward trends. The RNA was so deep and anomalous the last two Winters it completely ruined decent blocking in the nao and AO regions.

Not sure when the last measurable snow was for Central Park but this has a decent chance that's a win in my book.

If the precipitation comes in overnight and is heavy enough then it probably could.

I would much rather have the same outcome as February 2018 which was far above average temperature wise and we still managed to get a moderate snow storm.

Odd to see JFK that far off than the rest of the list. Was December 2018 the last December that NYC averaged -2 for the month? Or the entire region -1.5?

That warmth is country wide as apposed to the last couple of years where we were dealing with a deep RNA. That being said ending at -2.1 for the month with that look is impressive.

NOT predicting this but mid January 2015 through that March would work ( I know extreme but speaking of time remaining) or even a month like March 2018 alone would get us close to average.

Agreed we have had a lack of clippers lately, hopefully they return like the coastal hugger did, which we thought was extinct from 2000 through 2018, ultimately returned. Unfortunately we have no idea how many years the pac will be uncooperative.

Yeah just like the last few years where Norfolk, Tennessee, the Delmarva (Ocean City Maryland) have see good snowstorms. We have had strong negative NAOs like the past month and years with not much to show. This is really a parallel of the 80s and early 90s.

Thanks, yeah my recollection is probably off. However, perhaps looking back at that time period can shed light on what is occuring now.

I don't know if the information is available, however the mid to late 80s and early 90s featured the dreaded cold/warm up ahead of storm and rain/cold for years. Was the fast Paced jet the same issue then or was another factor driving the bus? The information may not be around however may provide insight as to why this is happening and perhaps how long (was about 8 years before). I remember one storm in January 1993 I believe that was in the lower teens in the morning, received about 1 inch of slop and then 50s and heavy rain then everything froze on the backend.

Wow thought it would have been December of 2013.

Nice. Just under .5 in Easton CT (close to the Fairfield boarder).

Wow.