EastonSN+

I think we will get something similar. However we used up 1 above average snowfall winter on 2020/2021 now we only have 4 left lol.

I think there is a lot of exaggeration too. I literally lived during the 1980s and it was not "frigid". We had cold spells like December 89 however I remember the big talk back then was it was getting too warm to snow and it was the new norm. I actually believed it until 2000 through 2018 happened, which I learned replicated 1955 through 1969. It has gotten warmer. However we are still seeing the Delmarva getting snowstorms like the 80s. Back then was cold and dry warm and wet. That is what we have now. Also neg. NAOs have failed us many times. Its just that 1955 through 1969 and 2000 through 2018 we succeeded more often than not. Now we are replicating the failures of 1970 through 1999. 30 years of abysmal snowfall with 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years!! I expect the same now until we get to the next favorable period (hopefully I am still alive). It just bothers me as I actually lived it. This is why I am not alarmed wrt snowfall failures.

This is incorrect. 4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

I believe its a function of not living through the lean years prior to 2000. People expect the bonanza of snowstorms during that time and get frustrated when we regress back to the mean.

Loving the end of the EPS run. You can see the ridging in the eastern PAC moving east towards the west coast.

Completely agree. I posted earlier this has a similar track as December 5/6 2009 with rain and white rain on the coast and snow inland. Unfortunately I had to witness this over and over again growing up in the 80s and 90s lol. Warm wet/cold dry. Good setup for the Middle Atlantic and great lakes though!

I lived in Norwalk CT at the time and it snowed the entire time yet did not accumulate at all.

Thinking December 5/6 decent comparison.

Courtesy of Rays winter storm archive. Again no accumulation for the coast.

I believe a good comparison would be December 5/6 2009. Offshore track resulting in hours of white rain. Areas just north and west had a moderate accumulation. Actually a perfect benchmark track.

A track like this, this early in the season, was always tough for snow in the city (not something new). I remember the December 2003 storm was around the 5th. That was BARELY all snow even back then (that had actual blocking). A benchmark track this early needs a deep cold air mas in place or blocking to keep a cold high / ne wind in place.

Thanks for this. The only good snowfall winter on the list for CPK is 64/65.

Wondering if other factors are negating the effects of the typically warm phases of the MJO (laster year was cold despite the MJO). Perhaps the responses we are used to seeing historically will no longer be the case..

Maybe I need a visual, however, why are the trade winds distributing specifically to the WPAC? Also does that mean the EPAC will remain generally cooler than average due to upwelling?

I don't think we can determine which factor will eventually cool the WPAC until we can pinpoint what is causing it (as opposed to other areas).

Do we know exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps (as opposed to any other region like CPAC or EPAC)?

Correct. For me I still like watching the approaching rain/snow line and seeing how much accumulation we get before we flip. Sometimes up to 8 before a flip to drizzle occurs.

JUST looking at the CMC and GFS model runs, this does have a 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 feel to it. If so this could be a big winter for the 84 corridor (or at least December).

May take a few years but they will be back.

Why wouldn't they continue to cool? Through history all sections of the pacific have had warming and cooling trends.

Seeing the waters in the western Pacific continue to cool is a great sign. One MET who was likely joking said "for the rest of our lives" regarding the "boiling" westpac warm pool. Also seeing the potential for a clear pass through phase 8 in December is another good sign. All in all good trends.

The western PAC continues to cool, great sign.

IMO there is way to much overestimating the SE ridge already. Also, its the RNA pumping up the SE ridge, not the other way around. Last year the SE ridge was not a major player, since we had a +PNA.

This is great. Thanks!!

It seems as though the affected area is CPK/LGA through SNE. Eastern PA as well. I am in awe of how much snow the Delmarva region has been getting. I remember growing up it seemed to be always warm/wet cold/dry. I would watch the weather channel (before internet lol) and they would use the phrase "its just a cold SNAP for the northeast, temperatures will rebound nicely......". The delmarva area did extremely well back then also.