EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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If I am not mistaken this would likely mean a storm track which would favor a Southeast slider, which is what the GFS is showing. Fast flow does not allow the storm to gain latitude. That being said it would be rather interesting to see a Southeast slider in a la niña.
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12 inches is a very high amount for an ensemble mean.
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January looks chilly at least the first couple weeks. Wonder when the last time we had back to back below average temperature months.
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The 1990s were the All or nothing home run hitters of the winter decades.
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Finally getting a decent amplitude passage through 8 1 and 2. Warming Waters in the Indian Ocean will help with phase 1 and 2 amplification.
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The 1990s were actually worse for January snowfall. In the 90s there were 4 winters were January ended up with less than 2 inches of snowfall as compared to the 1980s where only 2 Winters ended up with less than 2 inches of snow for January. Interesting fact is in the 1990s 4 December's ended up with just a trace of snow LOL. A total of 6 December's had less than 1 inch. Outside of 3 Winters the 1990s take the cake for putrid snowfall totals.
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Perhaps this one could come a little North for a light event.
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As long as it does not result in a trough to Baja that's a decent look.
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I mentioned this last year, the waters in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Africa are rising quickly which would mean higher amplitude waves in phases 1 and 2. This will help offset the warm Waters in Indonesia which are contributing to the higher amplitude waves in the warm phases.
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This will indeed be an interesting winter. Per the Middle Atlantic forum the PDO is rising fast, however, a negative EPO does not benefit us if we have a deep RNA. In rare cases like 95/96 we have a La Nina which never fully results in a deep RNA, same rang true for 2010 2011. Given that March can be snowy in a La Nina due to the shorter wavelengths, perhaps we could bridge the gap with a shorter RNA period.
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Great post as always thanks for this. Phase eight looks a little weak however looks like a stronger wave is going into one and two and I believe phase 2 is still cold and active for our area in January. I did reference this last year where the warm water anomalies, while amplifying the waves in the warm phases, are also amplifying phases one and two which are cold. Perhaps the retracted jet which was posted above from a Twitter post is associated with the stronger phases one and two.
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Yeah we go from worrying about a trough out west to a trough too far East.
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Unfortunately our last good period the trough was positioned a bit too far east to allow for any East Coast development hopefully this next period the trough access could be slightly further west and allow for more of a Southeast ridge to allow for coastal development we shall see.
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Agreed historically big snow is rare in our area outside of the two periods I referenced in a post above. On a side note two of the perceived good looking periods we had in the past we're not really great looks given that we had a trough to Baja which no amount of blocking could ever overcome. The modeling at medium and long range failed to link the southeast ridge to the nao which should have been picked up giving the depth of the trough out west and the position of the trough.
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Agreed 100%. The periods of 1955 through 1969 and the period of 2000 through 2018 skewed our viewpoint of what average snowfall is and how many KU events actually occur. Perhaps I have the benefit of living through the 80s and '90s where there was a total of three above average snowfall Winters in New York City. Also regarding KU events I only remember 1983 1993 1995 and 1996 4ku events. 1970 through 1999 had a grand total of five above average snowfall Winters in New York City.
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This is entertainment at this range however I would be more than happy with a light to moderate event like this one on the ECM
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On the topic of suppression what the GFS is showing is the risk. Conscious that this is just one op run however just utilizing to show a point.
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I referenced it at some point in the past however the look does seem to favor areas south of us, we need more of a Southeast ridge or a sharper PNA or east-based EPO to allow a storm to head north. That being said I would rather take the look that I'm seeing across the entire model suite as opposed to a full continent torch or a trough to Baja. This is a case where a storm ejecting East followed by a dip in the PNA could allow the storm to override the cold air.
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Did we have a break in the fast jet for the 2021-2022 winter, or was there another factor that counteracted it? That winter had a KU event and a heavy snow event in December and was above average snowfall region wide. If there was another Factor counteracting it that may be what we need to look out for incoming periods until the jet finally starts to slow down at some point in the future.
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I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk.
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The gefs has moved a little closer to the eps and toward the end of the run looks classic. For what it's worth the geps also looks a little better. Let's see if the EPS old serve.
