EastonSN+

Just a couple years too late LOL. I believe that was a good spot for 1978 as well and of course Nemo. Three of the best storms in history for that area. They did pretty good in that bust of a storm in 2015 was over a foot there.

I am usually positive thinking however not feeling good on 2/19 to 2/22. The confluence is strong.

Barrier island so water east south and west.

Thanks for these. Always hard to tell if would be that different today.

I think there's two points being discussed. The storm track is the issue where it's cold and dry warm and wet 1980s style. There is another point about it being too warm suddenly which I think is where the debate is lying where some are saying we're losing out on gradient storms because it's getting warmer but yet people are seeing snowfall on the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. I am not saying this myself but some may be saying if we are suddenly too warm on a gradient why isn't New Orleans or Washington DC too warm for a gradient. I think as Blue Wave mentioned we have a current fast flow which favors weak waves to the South and amped up waves to the lakes which would explain what's going on the best. This will change at some point hopefully soon and we'll get storms like we used to but who knows how long we have to wait.

That's not the case Ocean City Maryland got destroyed this year. Literally pictures of snow accumulation on the beach.

Yep and if Central Park gets 2 in Saturday then it would have outperformed 50% of the output which is good for an ensemble mean.

Yeah I never pay attention to op snowfall output as we have seen so many times especially on the GFS. Too high but not outrageous. If we get that 2 Saturday that's 7.5, only 4 inches low on the mean not bad for a long range snowfall output imo.

In reality if Central Park gets 2 inches this weekend they will be at 7.5. that's not horrible compared to the ensemble. The gefs at 11.5 this has 12 but that's only a half inch difference. Nobody would have cared if it ended up at 15.5.

My point was the largest snowfall output on the ensembles was 11.5 for Central Park.

Ensembles had 11.5 for a Central Park and they ended up with 5.5 so far. The 360 hours from that ensemble run includes this coming up weekend so if Central Park gets another 2 inches will be at 7.5 which is not far from what the ensembles were showing of 11.5. So not that far off from the ensembles. The problem was a couple of op runs were insane.

Is that La Nina? Also the ensembles agree on a trough.

If we can get a storm then we'll have snow retention for at least 2 weeks as it gets really cold afterwards.

I have heard that negative AO favors the Mid-Atlantic while a negative nao favors the Northeast. This would explain why in this episode the Middle Atlantic scores are not us. The nao barely goes negative while the AO is strongly negative and of course the Middle Atlantic got the storm.

And that's the difference that was the polar vortex to our North which is completely different than this year which is blocking based. New England has had a warm winter as opposed to that year where it was frigid for them.

This is AO driven not nao.

What's hilarious is that this is not a negative EPO it's a positive PNA but yet the trough is in the same spot lol.

No this looks like just a repeat generally of December and January where the trough access is in a bad spot for us.

Right around the 20th which is when we have that wave passing to our South.

Remember the h5 setup was completely different. Also not just specifically speaking of that one storm event but rather the season as a whole which had some frigid ice storms.

The AO is rising extremely fast this is our window. Hope it works out.

For those wanting an early spring like me this does not look good. To add insult to injury as with the last 2 months the trough is too far east. Perhaps we get another Southeast or Mid-Atlantic storm.

It could be in would explain why we're getting these intense blocking episodes so frequently. This also leads to my point which was raised in a New England forum about a bootleg block which is not the typical one which gives us a KU event but rather a heat induced block which does not have the same effect and fails more often than not. This would explain why 2021 the block succeeded in giving us a lot of snow wow last 3 years it has not. That being said the last two years is really historically low rnas. This year the block helped the middle alantic in the southeast like Atlanta New Orleans Destin Florida Ocean City Maryland etc etc. so maybe it is not a bootleg block. Also this means that the southeast in Mid-Atlantic does not care if the southeast ridge is linking up to the blocking because they're still getting lots of snow it just affects Northern latitudes for some reason. I get it weaker storms slide East while intense storms cut, but that just proves my point that it's the stronger storms pumping up the southeast ridge not the other way around.

This is the time period to watch as a blocking disappears after this time frame on the ensembles.

Going back to the southeast ridge making up to the AO, Don provided statistics which showed that it did indeed happen before, it just increased in frequency. Well if we are getting more blocking more often and in high intensity then the chances of it linking to the southeast ridge would increase to because there's more blocking episodes. Again Don proved it happened in the past so for increasing blocking episodes there's more chances for linking up to the southeast ridge.