EastonSN+

Thanks Don The difference between the gefs and the eps is the mjo where the EPS goes into the cod while the gefs stays in the warm phases for the next 15 days at least. It does appear that the wave will make it to phases 8, 1 and 2 approximately mid month February with of course the usual one to two week lag which would put us into the last week of February into the beginning of March. Given history it seems that March is snowy in La niñas with the old saying "March saved Winter". Would be fitting if the mjo has decent amplitude in phases 8 1 and 2 right at the start of March. The fact that the EPO seems to want to stay negative would suggest that cold would be at least at our side of the globe if the mjo does cooperate, which phase eight would suggest a trough in the east. If blocking is absent perhaps we avoid the suppression look this time. Looking at the plant below I do not see how we avoid phases 8 1 and 2. Of course March is always a wild card with shorter wavelengths leading to bowling ball type storms.

We've got two months left. The mjo should get to phase 8 by the end of February. That's plenty of time to get another snow event. Was Walt really nervous winter was over?

It seems to be periodic in nature. 2000 through 2010 March snowfall was very low. 2011 through 2020 we had a number of snowfalls in march. 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019. Now we are back to a period of non snowy marches. However, even in the 2000 through 2010 period we had the occasional snowfall in March. Therefore we cannot assume that it will not snow this March just because we are in a 10-year period that is not favorable for march snow. Were the odds better 1990 through 1999, or 2011 through 2019, yes. However it did snow in March 2000 through 2010. Therefore I cannot see any reason to state that it can't snow this March unless I am missing something.

Did we have blocking in March 2014? I thought that was the year of the negative EPO and the polar vortex sitting on top of us, acting as a steering/blocking mechanism. Regardless, you're telling me you would rather not get blocking again this year if you had a choice? Even though statistically as Don has pointed out blocking favors 6 + events.

Just because blocking failed us last time does not mean it would not benefit us next time. The intensity of the block coupled with shorter wavelengths may have a vastly different outcome than what we saw. I would gladly take the return of blocking. I am not looking at historically high temps or a torch. We will have more Southeast ridge influence, which as I discussed with Brooklyn, could result in favorable follow-up wave scenarios (as we all know cutter risk exist when there is a lack of blocking). We will likely still have the EPO negative, which further allows for the chance of a follow-up wave.

It seems that March is decadal. 2000 through 2010 we did not have much snowfall in March, however, 2011 through 2020 we had a few good marches like 2011 (I believe it was March not February that we had the 4.5 inch overrunning event), 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019. 2019 was better for the northern half of this forum. Agreed that 2018 was a historic event. However purely looking from a statistical perspective I believe Don had stats about returning blocking when it existed in December. Perhaps I am mistaken on that. Out of curiosity other than an sswe, what else would cause blocking? I believe a few years back the mjo went off the charts literally in phase 6 which resulted in the polar vortex getting disrupted. So it appears that a strong mjo wave could also lead to blocking like an SSwe. What else would cause it that we can look for.

Not seeing a huge torch, however it will be different than what we have seen so far as the blocking will have disappeared. The return would be to below average temperatures and hopefully precipitation chances if it does occur.

I think the big question is, and it was stated in the Middle Atlantic forum, will winter return at the end of February through March, which tends to happen in La niñas. La niñas typically start cold however this stretch lasted a couple weeks longer than normal, which if the aforementioned is true, could lead to a 2 to 3 week warm up before falling back into a more favorable pattern. All speculative of course. Nearly going off of La Nina's of the past. Particularly, since we seem to have reverted back to the 1970 through 1999 pattern, the late '80s early '90s were famously March saved the winters. Of course saved meaning turning a 10 inch snowfall year to a 15 inch snowball year LOL.

The AO is dropping toward neutral, however not negative, during this time frame. We would be relying on the vortex south of Greenland to hinder too much of a Northward trajectory. Perhaps a met can a opine on the feasibility of this.

Isn't the general rule of thumb that blocking tends to return in a season where it's predominantly negative in December? If I'm not mistaken Don provided statistics to this effect at some point. Not sure if La Nina counters that. Regarding the upcoming pattern 100% agree we would almost root for a strong cutter to allow for a weaker follow-up wave to come through. I forgot the year, it may have been 2008, however we received a 6 to 10 inch snowfall regionally from a follow-up wave which was a lot more than expected. Even if the follow-up wave is weak sometimes we can get a heavy snowfall.

What's insane is Ocean City Maryland seems to be outperforming my neck of the woods since 2018 with regards to snowfall percentage of average.

This question would be better answered by Don or BlueWave. Generally speaking 781 and 2 are colder and 345 and 6 are warmer. However that changes with the enso and the month of the year. For instance in a la nina February phase 3 is no longer warm it's cold.

At the end of the run, however, it looks like the EPO is turning negative again which would continue the seasonal trend.

Thanks for this, Just out of curiosity, why do you go with 19/20 instead of 20/21 to commence like NWS does? Not arguing just curious. If we go the NWS path we are of course in better shape for the decade so far.

Agreed, if this were another above average temperature winter and most of the states south of us were not getting slammed with snow, then yeah it would be more acceptable. It's funny this winter in the last two we are finding every way possible to not snow regardless if we have blocking, frigid temperatures, etc... Wouldn't be shocked if we get absolutely slammed next year and break some records LOL.

Taken from the Middle Atlantic thread. They seem to be optimistic for late February into March. Basically following the mjo passage.

2011 was of course historic. However just taking snowfall starting February 1st wasn't bad. We had a one to three inch changeover event in early February. Then we had a four to six inch overrunning event in early March I believe.

Agreed looking at the ensembles we are heading in that La niña direction. That being said we tend to get into a colder period in late February and March in La niñas. Will be interesting to see if the same holds true this year. Although I have heard that this La Nina is not coupled, we seem to have followed an extended La Nina blueprint of a colder than normal December and colder than normal first week of January. Obviously we've gone into the second half of January colder than average which is against La niña typically. I think the mjo will come into play more than December, as during that month the blocking may have countered the warm phases of the mjo. Now that we have lost blocking, the ensembles are taking on the look of phases four five and six. That said, we should be heading into the colder phases second half of February and March which again would follow the La Nina footprint. Will be interesting to track

It's fascinating how the pattern keeps changing from an h5 perspective, outside of the trough south of Greenland, and it always results in the same low precipitation result.

Interesting winter so far. The pattern has changed from the beginning of December till now, yet we still are not getting moisture. Too much blocking no moisture, lost blocking no moisture. The one constant has been the trough south of Greenland.

MJO phase 3 is cold, and we will be leaving this phase by EOM. Reading the MA forum there seems to be a good chance late February and March will be colder, in line with La Nina and the projected MJO progression. We shall see. Of course we need moisture.

3 degrees here.

Orleans parish mid city 9.5.

Did the measurement have a Time? Curious to see how long ago it was as they've had heavy snow for a while now.

Heard unofficial report over 5.5 (TV).